EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like convection is responding to the warming SSTS.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like convection is responding to the warming SSTS.

Deeper storm possibly goes a bit more north if it remains well stacked. I hope this finds a way to clear Hawaii...

[Kingarabian]

It would be an epic failure for the GFS if this thing hits Maui or Oahu.

GFS' poleward bias for NATL storms has been noted. I would imagine it's no different elsewhere in the world.

The GFS initialized it well east of the actual center though.

[Kingarabian]

The center was deviating from the 06z CPHC track.

[hawaiigirl]

Mahalo nui to all of you for keeping us informed with your knowledge here on this forum. I have been on this site reading your discussions for a few days now and greatly appreciate all of your information. Please continue to keep us in your prayers. I’m here on the north shore of Oahu where it looks like will be taking the brunt of the storm.
As far as preparedness, I can only pray that our community takes this seriously. We have not experienced anything like what we are anticipating... not that I can think of. There is a lot of old plantation homes here, and I’m afraid for them. I don’t know if some of you are aware but our Mayor did not open a shelter for the whole Ko’olauloa community. From Waikane all the way to Haleiwa, there is no Red Cross shelter. By the grace of God, BYU has stepped up and opened there doors to the community but the word is not out yet so we need to focus on letting everyone know that there is another option closer to us, rather than driving 30min to the nearest shelter. To all my fellow Islanders. Stay safe! God bless.

[Kingarabian]

Mahalo nui to all of you for keeping us informed with your knowledge here on this forum. I have been on this site reading your discussions for a few days now and greatly appreciate all of your information. Please continue to keep us in your prayers. I’m here on the north shore of Oahu where it looks like will be taking the brunt of the storm.
As far as preparedness, I can only pray that our community takes this seriously. We have not experienced anything like what we are anticipating... not that I can think of. There is a lot of old plantation homes here, and I’m afraid for them. I don’t know if some of you are aware but our Mayor did not open a shelter for the whole Ko’olauloa community. From Waikane all the way to Haleiwa, there is no Red Cross shelter. By the grace of God, BYU has stepped up and opened there doors to the community but the word is not out yet so we need to focus on letting everyone know that there is another option closer to us, rather than driving 30min to the nearest shelter. To all my fellow Islanders. Stay safe! God bless.

Yeah I really don't know why he did that when the northern tip will be at the most risk -- even if the storm simply brushes Oahu. I hope you, your family and community makes it out fine. This is some tough luck. But just stay vigilant and expect and prepare for the worst. We're still 8-12 hours ish away from impact.

[Kingarabian]

[OahuWahine]

Yesterday when it looked like we were just going to get brushed, I made the decision not to board up since we're central Oahu (Waipio area) but now I'm starting to worry. If it does make landfall, is it most likely to be on the North shore or could it pass over the center of the island?

[Aric Dunn]

Most people on the islands have never seen winds over 30 to maybe 40 mph..

60 to 70 will probably scare the crap out of most of them.

[Aric Dunn]

Yesterday when it looked like we were just going to get brushed, I made the decision not to board up since we're central Oahu (Waipio area) but now I'm starting to worry. If it does make landfall, is it most likely to be on the North shore or could it pass over the center of the island?

It could still pass directly over the island.

[Kingarabian]

No shelters for the north shore open.

[aspen]

I never thought I would see a fully fledged hurricane get this close to Hawaii, especially in such an inactive, neutral/negative ENSO year.

[Kingarabian]

Yesterday when it looked like we were just going to get brushed, I made the decision not to board up since we're central Oahu (Waipio area) but now I'm starting to worry. If it does make landfall, is it most likely to be on the North shore or could it pass over the center of the island?

Really hard to tell, it could be anywhere but the most likeliest landfall would be from the north per the CPHC OR if Douglas refuses to go more NW, east Oahu. But in the end if this makes a direct landfall over Oahu the entire state will feel its wrath.

[supercane4867]

No shelters for the north shore open.

https://i.imgur.com/zZCB07U.png

That doesn’t make sense at all.

[Kingarabian]

Firs visible

[supercane4867]

Eyewall visible on radar

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely appears to be liking the warmer waters..

Convection looks like its trying build back around the sw and south side of the tilted llc.


New plane on the way.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely appears to be liking the warmer waters..

Convection looks like its trying build back around the sw and south side of the tilted llc.


New plane on the way.

What do you think of the models initializing east of the CPHC's fix?

[OahuWahine]

Yesterday when it looked like we were just going to get brushed, I made the decision not to board up since we're central Oahu (Waipio area) but now I'm starting to worry. If it does make landfall, is it most likely to be on the North shore or could it pass over the center of the island?

It could still pass directly over the island.

We don't have any boards at the house (we're moving and everything was dumped or put in storage) but my brother in law was talking about using some closet doors. We only have a couple though. If the back of the house faces Pearl Harbor, should we board up the back windows or the front?

[OahuWahine]

Yesterday when it looked like we were just going to get brushed, I made the decision not to board up since we're central Oahu (Waipio area) but now I'm starting to worry. If it does make landfall, is it most likely to be on the North shore or could it pass over the center of the island?

Really hard to tell, it could be anywhere but the most likeliest landfall would be from the north per the CPHC OR if Douglas refuses to go more NW, east Oahu. But in the end if this makes a direct landfall over Oahu the entire state will feel its wrath.

Yikes. Really regretting that decision now