ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#101 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:10 am

Luis don’t look now!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#102 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:10 am

Looks like GFS is going to miss the meat of the GA's this run. To the N
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#103 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:11 am

Next 5 days might be the classic game of trough vs ridge

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#104 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:11 am

Probably a fish (to the US) this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#105 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:13 am

Once again... :double:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 42.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 48 13.5N 42.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 28.07.2020 60 14.1N 46.9W 1008 32
1200UTC 28.07.2020 72 14.4N 50.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 29.07.2020 84 15.1N 54.9W 1004 38
1200UTC 29.07.2020 96 17.0N 58.4W 1001 44
0000UTC 30.07.2020 108 18.5N 61.9W 996 49
1200UTC 30.07.2020 120 19.9N 65.6W 989 59
0000UTC 31.07.2020 132 21.7N 68.5W 970 70
1200UTC 31.07.2020 144 23.6N 71.7W 961 71
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Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.


Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#106 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:14 am

Yep could be fish, ridge vs trough like always, gfs usually over does trough when it’s July-sept
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#107 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:23 am

Well, probably not the pattern you want to see if you live on the East Coast. Still a week out...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#108 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:26 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Well, probably not the pattern you want to see if you live on the East Coast. Still a week out...

https://i.imgur.com/IPduu5g.gif


This is the pattern I am worried about for an east coast hit. It was the same pattern that brought Fay up into NYC IIRC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#109 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:28 am

Forget a fish, GFS will landfall this run. HP building strongly to the NE
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#110 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:29 am

Appears to be a NC hit given the pattern.
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#111 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:30 am

Looks like it might be a East Central Florida hit, with a cruel joke for the Bahamas....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#112 Postby caneseddy » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:31 am

toad strangler wrote:Forget a fish, GFS will landfall this run. GA or Carolinas?


Getting those Irma vibes. Recall the GFS was showing GA/SC for landfall and then it started adjusting SW towards Florida...

Still over a week out, but it's the classic ridge vs. trough battle.

Not an official forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#113 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:31 am

supercane4867 wrote:Appears to be a NC hit given the pattern.


Looks like Offshore Daytona beach and up
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#114 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:32 am

234 hours heading towards the east coast of Florida:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#115 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:33 am

6Z vs 12Z

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#116 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:34 am

Northjaxpro????

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#117 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:34 am

GFS wants to visit St. Augustine.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#118 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:35 am

500mb such a crapshoot past 5 days. But with a system this strong 500mb means almost everything IRT steering.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#119 Postby Fancy1001 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:36 am

This one is starting to feel like Irma and Dorian had a baby lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#120 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:36 am



Pretty bad scenario for coastal Georgia in that run
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