Will 2020 reach the Greek Alphabet names in the Atlantic?

[CyclonicFury]

Hanna just got named. 14 to go...that would only be 3 more than the average number of named storms from August-November (11).

[cycloneye]

Hanna just got named. 14 to go...that would only be 3 more than the average number of named storms from August-November (11).

#9 waiting on deck off Aftica.

[bob rulz]

I would bet all of my paychecks for the rest of the hurricane season that we'll reach the Greek alphabet. At this point the better bet is whether we beat 2005's record.

[sma10]

Haven't you all been paying attention? It's 2020 ... and the year 2020 has decided to take no prisoners.

Of course we're going to reach the Greek alphabet.

[Do_For_Love]

Yeah, I think in terms of named storms, 2005 may get a run for it's money. The 2020 season has had more named storms than official weeks thus far, lol.

[al78]

What happens regarding retirement if a storm with a greek letter is extremely destructive?

[aspen]

What happens regarding retirement if a storm with a greek letter is extremely destructive?

I believe it won’t be retired, probably because there wouldn’t be a replacement.

[Extratropical94]

What happens regarding retirement if a storm with a greek letter is extremely destructive?

The Greek letter would still be used again afterwards. A Greek letter is more like a designation rather than a name. For example, if a numbered depression caused many casualties, the number would also be reused.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Hurricane Omega will form at this rate?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think at this point, probably. We're on Hanna, with Isaias likely to develop by next week. It's not even August and we'll be on our 9th named storm.

Most "average" seasons feature a solid 8-10 storms after August 1st. So, even if 2020 stops developing storms at this rate, we're still likely to end up with a season with 18 named.

21-24 seems a good guess. Hopefully, they'll all continue to remain weak.

[CrazyC83]

Since 1995, there have been 10 seasons (out of 25) with 14 or more storms after July 24 - i.e. keeping any of their pace would end up going Greek. By season (and the name we'd hit if we went at that pace):

1995 - 16 (Gamma)
1996 - 11 (Teddy)
1997 - 3 (Kyle)
1998 - 15 (Beta)
1999 - 11 (Teddy)
2000 - 15 (Beta)
2001 - 14 (Alpha)
2002 - 11 (Teddy)
2003 - 12 (Vicky)
2004 - 15 (Beta)
2005 - 21 (Theta)
2006 - 7 (Omar)
2007 - 13 (Wilfred)
2008 - 12 (Vicky)
2009 - 9 (Rene)
2010 - 17 (Delta)
2011 - 15 (Beta)
2012 - 15 (Beta)
2013 - 10 (Sally)
2014 - 7 (Omar)
2015 - 8 (Paulette)
2016 - 11 (Teddy)
2017 - 13 (Wilfred)
2018 - 12 (Vicky)
2019 - 16 (Gamma)

[Chris90]

I wonder if hitting the Greeks for a second time in the Atlantic could change the way naming is done. If instead of having 6 different lists with one list used per year, they just adopt a huge list like the WPAC, and every year they just pick up where last year left off instead of starting at A with a new list. There's names on the Atlantic list that have never been used, and names that have been used several times. Changing the way naming is done could help avoid the fact that lots of I names get retired due to their placement on the list and also give names like Van and Wilfred a chance to actually get used. If we reach the Greeks it won't really make sense for something like Alpha to have been used twice in 15 years even though it's not on an official list, while there's official list names who have never even had a shot.

I know starting at A and working through the alphabet makes sense in regards to it's easy to count the number of storms that way, but the general public doesn't do that anyway from what I can tell. It's not like they're going "Ok, Cristobal, this must be the 3rd named storm this year since it's C." The only people that I really think are keeping track of storm counts are meteorologists and enthusiasts, and we know the number and basin designation on storms anyway.

[Hurricanehink]

Yes. I don't know if it will exceed 2005, but somewhere 22-27 storms is plausible. Sure, there is a season like 1997 AHS, which featured five named storms before the end of July, an impressive number, including one hurricane that hit the United States. That season ended with eight storms, which 2020 has already tied. Doubters might say that Dolly and Edouard wouldn't have been classified in an earlier era, and maybe not Bertha since it was so short-lived. Still, the fact that we're about to have a landfalling July hurricane, we had an MDR tropical storm, and there's a 50% chance for the 9th named storm before the end of July, this suggests record activity is a distinct possibility.

I'd like to point out that the WPAC is seeing record inactivity. Even the EPAC is more exciting these days with a hurricane threatening Hawaii (I hope everyone is safe in harm's way, both ATL and EPAC!) Still, that hurricane was the 4th latest first hurricane of a season. Maybe 2020 will turn out like 2016 - on this day that year, Tropical Storm Darby struck Hawaii days after becoming a major hurricane. That season ended with 23 storms in the EPAC. Interestingly, 2016 AHS also had a busy May and June, only for activity to stop throughout August. One major difference between 2016 and 2020? 2016 Pacific typhoon season had a Cat 5 typhoon in July, plus three other named storms. 2020 hasn't seen a named tropical storm in the basin since June 14th. So who knows how this year will shape up.

[CrazyC83]

Updating the trends to July 31 at 2359Z. Using the number of storms we've had up to this point (9) and what each season from 1995 to 2019 had from August onward, we'd end up at with a similar pace as now (bold = Greek):

1995 - 14 (Beta)
1996 - 10 (Teddy)
1997 - 3 (Laura)
1998 - 13 (Alpha)
1999 - 11 (Vicky)
2000 - 15 (Gamma)
2001 - 14 (Beta)
2002 - 11 (Vicky)
2003 - 12 (Wilfred)
2004 - 14 (Beta)
2005 - 21 (Iota)
2006 - 7 (Paulette)
2007 - 12 (Wilfred)
2008 - 12 (Wilfred)
2009 - 9 (Sally)
2010 - 17 (Epsilon)
2011 - 15 (Gamma)
2012 - 15 (Gamma)
2013 - 10 (Teddy)
2014 - 7 (Paulette)
2015 - 8 (Rene)
2016 - 11 (Vicky)
2017 - 12 (Wilfred)
2018 - 12 (Wilfred)
2019 - 16 (Delta)

Still, 10 of the 25 seasons had enough storms from August onward that would send 2020 to the Greeks, while another 5 seasons would finish the list out.

[CyclonicFury]

At this point, every named storm we get increases the chances. NHC is giving 94L a 60% chance of development within five days (though model support is rather lackluster). The Atlantic has a very reasonable path to Greeks without requiring any extreme activity in any month: 4 named storms in August, 5 named storms in September, 3 named storms in October and 1 in November would get us to Alpha.

Even if Greeks aren't reached, it seems likely 2020 will at least tie 1933 for the second most active season on record in total storms. It seems very likely we'll see some names used this year that have never been used before, as Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred have all never been used. Of the remaining names on the Atlantic naming list, only Omar has ever been a major hurricane in the past, so it seems likely the strongest storm will have a name that has never been very notable before. Perhaps we may even see a Greek name be a notable storm if ASO is active enough...

[DestinHurricane]

I think it will be close to getting to Greeks, might get there might not. But what is far more important is storm QUALITY not QUANITY. 1 cat 5 is far greater than 50 tropical depressions. Storm strength is the big question this season. Isaias was in an area where you would typically expect a storm to strengthen and at least be a cat 1.

[CyclonicFury]

I think it will be close to getting to Greeks, might get there might not. But what is far more important is storm QUALITY not QUANITY. 1 cat 5 is far greater than 50 tropical depressions. Storm strength is the big question this season. Isaias was in an area where you would typically expect a storm to strengthen and at least be a cat 1.

It's very important to remember approximately 85% of Category 3+ hurricanes in the Atlantic are after August 20.

[USTropics]

To put things into perspective (this is using record keeping since 1842):
- Isaiah is the first I named stormed to be active in the month of July in 178 years of record keeping.
- In the past 178 years, there have been 125 July tropical storms. That’s an average of approximately 0.7 tropical storms in a season for the month of July. 2020 had 5 named tropical storms (tying a record).
- In the same timeframe, there have been 58 July hurricanes. That’s an average of approximately 0.3 hurricanes in a season for the month of July. 2020 had 2 hurricanes (2005 holds the record with 3).
- Using climatology period of 1966-2009, the average 10th named storm is October 19th.
- Using the same climatology period, the average 3rd hurricane forming is September 9th (first major hurricane forming is September 4th).

[Abdullah]

I understand that it's virtually impossible for such a thing to happen, but is there a plan for what happens if we run out of Greek letters?

[Hurricaneman]

I understand that it's virtually impossible for such a thing to happen, but is there a plan for what happens if we run out of Greek letters?

I believe they would use the names they used from 1950 through 1952