ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

Look at that!
https://i.imgur.com/DnaLQUj.jpg

How fast did Harvey reach cat 4 near this same position?

[Texashawk]

“So what are you up to?”

“Oh, you know, just tracking this latest depression’s position by using its clearly IR defined eye”

[FireRat]

Look at that!
https://i.imgur.com/DnaLQUj.jpg

How fast did Harvey reach cat 4 near this same position?

Was quite fast, I believe he.went from a 1 on 8/24 to a landfalling Cat 4 on 8/25 in roughly just 24 hours. The curvature of the Gulf coast could be a factor in helping these storms strengthen quickly as they approach land.

[Steve]

Keep in mind an average rate of intensification is 1/day. This is currently a T2.5 so assuming that reasonable (if not conservative given the situation) rate in two days we could expect to see a T4.5, not factoring in the fact we have Recon.

Yeah, but I don't think intensification is likely to be linear (if that's the right term).

[shiny-pebble]

It looks like its still figuring out it's structure. It's tightening up that inner core and eye. Still can't believe we're talking about an eye feature on a depression, lol. If/when it's able to tighten up we may see more efficient strengthening. 11pm discussion will be interesting for sure...

[hurricaneCW]

The system lacks an inner core which could take a long time to develop. It's very unlikely this becomes more than a 50-60mph storm by landfall due to this.

[zhukm29]

Let's see what TD 8 looks like in the morning... it'll certainly be interesting. Another burst of convection popping near the center.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The "eye" feature some are alluding to is nothing more than a dry slot.

[bob rulz]

The system lacks an inner core which could take a long time to develop. It's very unlikely this becomes more than a 50-60mph storm by landfall due to this.

It still has 48+ hours until landfall, that's more than enough time to develop a core and reach cat 1 intensity.

I sometimes feel like this board has collective amnesia every season at how quickly storms can really ramp up.

[bob rulz]

[duplicate]

[ozonepete]

No mention from Recon on an eye.

It's a COC that's all. We shouldn't forget the many TDs and TSs first have a COC that is pretty cleared out and looks ike an "eye" but isn't. The biggest clue, as is evident here, is that the COC is quite large without a clear ring of thunderstorms around all of it or most of it and no large solid core of convection, i.e. a CDO. The COC here can easily be the basis for an eye as the night goes on, IF a bigger CDO develops and the thunderstorms wrap around and tighten up into a smaller eye. It looks like that will happen as we head towards DMAX but right now it looks like something is holding it back a little, probably just temporarily.

[ozonepete]

The "eye" feature some are alluding to is nothing more than a dry slot.

It's not a dry slot. There is neither any dry air at the center nor is there any "slot" configuration.

[MississippiWx]

This is a large system. I’m 60 miles inland in South MS and we have a stiff breeze out of the East. It’s very tropical-like here.

[sphelps8681]

355K PV has cleared out all the way to the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/DLYRGQp.gif

Sorry what does that mean? Talk English please. LOL!!

[MGC]

Yes, quite an impressive depression. Very large wind field. As such, a lower than normal central pressure will likely be required before the winds catch up. I'm thinking sub 1000mb before TD8 is upgraded to a storm. Things could ramp up tonight as a better thermal profile will allow the convection to be more vigorous. Doubt this becomes a hurricane, its just too big and has little time over the GOM......MGC

[mcallum177]

KATP Buoy is up to 32 knots.

[cainjamin]

Winds are looking a little weaker in the SW quad on this pass.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The "eye" feature some are alluding to is nothing more than a dry slot.

It's not a dry slot. There is neither any dry air at the center nor is there any "slot" configuration.

I probably shouldn't call it a "dry slot", just an area absent of deep convection as a result of collapsing thunderstorms, but I simply cannot believe that it's an eye. Not with only 30-35 knot winds.

[Highteeld]

355K PV has cleared out all the way to the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/DLYRGQp.gif

Sorry what does that mean? Talk English please. LOL!!

low shear

[Steve]

Let's see what TD 8 looks like in the morning... it'll certainly be interesting. Another burst of convection popping near the center.

https://i.ibb.co/6J2PjWv/goes16-ir-08-L-202007232327.gif

If you haven't looked at the HRRR IR simulation, run that sucker. I put an easy to get to link in the model thread. It looks pretty close to H status on Saturday morning. That perpendicular landfall angle of landfall on Texas always makes for interesting storm watching. If it's going to make H status by Saturday morning, it's going to take a few cycles to get there. I'd have said 5%, but a track that west and perpendicular right now makes things way more interesting for intensification