TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 88.2W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for much of the Texas coast
from Port Mansfield to High Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 88.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and this
general motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move
across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday and
make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a
tropical storm in a day or so.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Friday.
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches along the Gulf coast
from Louisiana to the Lower Texas coast, and inland through
south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined
center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep
convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The
initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier
reconnaissance data.
The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A
subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause
it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as
it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to
the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to
the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the
Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in
fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the various consensus models.
The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate
wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the
warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so
some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is
still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be
gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should
commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and
HCCA guidance.
Key Messages
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch has been issued.
2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result
in flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi