ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Hmmm....

[Aric Dunn]

Much better pass from recon good well defined circ.

should see Hanna shortly.

[Horn1991]

Hmmm....
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/613fc937e1ce54f187d781056294927053df866f7fcf11ec3225eddc4f381b7c.jpg

Is that the hook Cowan was speaking of earlier?

[dantonlsu]

Hmmm....
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/613fc937e1ce54f187d781056294927053df866f7fcf11ec3225eddc4f381b7c.jpg

Definetely has the hook feature.

Interested to see the HWRF & associated models if they stay on that northern track.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm....
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/613fc937e1ce54f187d781056294927053df866f7fcf11ec3225eddc4f381b7c.jpg

Is that the hook Cowan was speaking of earlier?

it is a slightly newer one. but yes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Atlantic is absolutely spamming out tropical storms this year. This will beat the record set by Harvey (2005) for earliest 8th named storm by

11 days

.

[plasticup]

Much better pass from recon good well defined circ.

should see Hanna shortly.

That would be 11 days ahead of the 2005 record for 8th earliest storm? People keep pointing out that 2005 had stronger storms but (with the exception of Emily) the strong storms were Aug/Sept/Oct as usual. The absurd pace of cyclogenesis this year is just mind boggling. Every little wisp of cloud stands a chance!

[Shell Mound]

The low-level inflow on visible satellite imagery is rather impressive for a strong depression or low-end tropical storm. The “feathery” cirrus outflow in the western semicircle indicates that the upper low to the southwest is imparting impressive divergence. Additionally, the pronounced band on the northeastern side of the system is often a precursor to rapid intensification, when combined with the formation of a small inner core beneath anticyclonic flow. The overall shape of the system, unfortunately, looks rather similar to that of Harvey ‘17 prior to its rapid pre-shore intensification. I definitely think that this has a better chance to become a hurricane than many people may think or acknowledge. The only negative factor is some northerly shear, but that is abating shortly and rapidly. “Hurricane Hanna”: another year, another “H”-bomb “gone to Texas”...

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1286349831678636032

[davidiowx]

Hmmm....
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/613fc937e1ce54f187d781056294927053df866f7fcf11ec3225eddc4f381b7c.jpg

Definetely has the hook feature.

Interested to see the HWRF & associated models if they stay on that northern track.

12z HWRF looks like Rockport landfall, just a tad further south than the 06z

[Steve]

Much better pass from recon good well defined circ.

should see Hanna shortly.

That would be 11 days ahead of the 2005 record for 8th earliest storm? People keep pointing out that 2005 had stronger storms but (with the exception of Emily) the strong storms were Aug/Sept/Oct as usual. The absurd pace of cyclogenesis this year is just mind boggling. Every little wisp of cloud stands a chance!

Dennis was a major, and Cindy was a borderline 1.

[CyclonicFury]

The low-level inflow on visible satellite imagery is rather impressive for a strong depression or low-end tropical storm. The “feathery” cirrus outflow in the western semicircle indicates that the upper low to the southwest is imparting impressive divergence. Additionally, the pronounced band on the northeastern side of the system is often a precursor to rapid intensification, when combined with the formation of a small inner core beneath anticyclonic flow. The overall shape of the system, unfortunately, looks rather similar to that of Harvey ‘17 prior to its rapid pre-shore intensification. I definitely think that this has a better chance to become a hurricane than many people may think or acknowledge. The only negative factor is some northerly shear, but that is abating shortly and rapidly. “Hurricane Hanna”: another year, another “H”-bomb “gone to Texas”...

I wouldn't rule out a minimal Category 1 before landfall but I don't think this will get any stronger than that at most. Most likely I think it will be a strong TS.

[Shell Mound]

The low-level inflow on visible satellite imagery is rather impressive for a strong depression or low-end tropical storm. The “feathery” cirrus outflow in the western semicircle indicates that the upper low to the southwest is imparting impressive divergence. Additionally, the pronounced band on the northeastern side of the system is often a precursor to rapid intensification, when combined with the formation of a small inner core beneath anticyclonic flow. The overall shape of the system, unfortunately, looks rather similar to that of Harvey ‘17 prior to its rapid pre-shore intensification. I definitely think that this has a better chance to become a hurricane than many people may think or acknowledge. The only negative factor is some northerly shear, but that is abating shortly and rapidly. “Hurricane Hanna”: another year, another “H”-bomb “gone to Texas”...

I wouldn't rule out a minimal Category 1 before landfall but I don't think this will get any stronger than that at most. Most likely I think it will be a strong TS.

Personally, I think a moderate to strong Cat-1 is quite doable, given current trends, if a small inner core can establish itself in time. Analog: Humberto ‘07.

[SoupBone]

The low-level inflow on visible satellite imagery is rather impressive for a strong depression or low-end tropical storm. The “feathery” cirrus outflow in the western semicircle indicates that the upper low to the southwest is imparting impressive divergence. Additionally, the pronounced band on the northeastern side of the system is often a precursor to rapid intensification, when combined with the formation of a small inner core beneath anticyclonic flow. The overall shape of the system, unfortunately, looks rather similar to that of Harvey ‘17 prior to its rapid pre-shore intensification. I definitely think that this has a better chance to become a hurricane than many people may think or acknowledge. The only negative factor is some northerly shear, but that is abating shortly and rapidly. “Hurricane Hanna”: another year, another “H”-bomb “gone to Texas”...

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1286349831678636032

Corpus Christi is a 9 hour drive from Bay St. Louis, unless he's flying to get there.

[Steve]

The low-level inflow on visible satellite imagery is rather impressive for a strong depression or low-end tropical storm. The “feathery” cirrus outflow in the western semicircle indicates that the upper low to the southwest is imparting impressive divergence. Additionally, the pronounced band on the northeastern side of the system is often a precursor to rapid intensification, when combined with the formation of a small inner core beneath anticyclonic flow. The overall shape of the system, unfortunately, looks rather similar to that of Harvey ‘17 prior to its rapid pre-shore intensification. I definitely think that this has a better chance to become a hurricane than many people may think or acknowledge. The only negative factor is some northerly shear, but that is abating shortly and rapidly. “Hurricane Hanna”: another year, another “H”-bomb “gone to Texas”...

I wouldn't rule out a minimal Category 1 before landfall but I don't think this will get any stronger than that at most. Most likely I think it will be a strong TS.

Personally, I think a moderate to strong Cat-1 is quite doable, given current trends, if a small inner core can establish itself in time. Analog: Humberto ‘07.

Hurricane models agree with you. You could see if it crawls the coast or moves WSW down the coast, maybe. If it had another day, I'd say it would be more likely. I think 55-60mph is probably the ceiling the way things look now.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone rulling out a Hurricane is likely going to eating their words.

[wx98]

If they go with Hanna it will be this evening or tonight:

1:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 23
Location: 26.0°N 90.3°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[Steve]

Anyone rulling out a Hurricane is likely going to eating their words.

I don't think anyone is ruling it out. I'm certainly not, but I don't think it's as likely - not yet anyway and not moderate to strong Cat 1 which is what he said. You and I were posting about it on Monday, and Thursday always seemed to be the day that the models agreed this would come together. I think it's on track for that. .

[GCANE]

Anyone rulling out a Hurricane is likely going to eating their words.

Heard crow tastes good when cooked on the BGE.
In fact everything tastes good from the BGE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51tCC0118VQ

[Steve]

Here comes the rain again, falling on my head like a memory...

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1286323620218888192

Agree with Levi here. The convection may be impressive, but looking at the satellite loops, doesn’t look like the low-level center is aligned with the mid-level not to mention, the low is broad. This system will probably go down as “if it only had another 24-48 hours over water what would have been.”

For now looks like a rain event with some TS winds confined to a small area.