ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Gonzalo definitely peaked yesterday. The TC is significantly less organized this morning. Looks like the combination of shear and dry air were just strong enough to significantly disrupt the circulation. Now the global model solutions are much more believable. That still doesn’t mean they did a good job though. They completely missed the genesis of a strong TS yesterday.

Gonzalo is on the ropes, and for the sake of those in the path of the storm, hopefully it gets knocked out by the 1-2 punch of dry air and shear. Do not let your guard down yet, however.

[AutoPenalti]

The ongoing collapse really shouldn’t be surprising. Gonzalo, like many small, early-season systems, both intensified and weakened faster than expected, just like Beryl ‘18. Personally, I think this was briefly a low-end Cat-1 hurricane (~65 knots) yesterday, but is probably down to 45 knots at most now. This will probably open up into a wave by the time it reaches the islands, since neither the thermodynamic environment nor shear is going to improve from now on. I think some people gave too much weight to the HWRF/HMON/Canadian simply because the ECMWF/GFS were too slow with the genesis and short-term deepening of Gonzalo. This was clearly a case of overcompensation. The ECMWF/GFS actually are more reliable with well-defined systems, but Gonzalo was too small for them to resolve properly.

You seem to forget that almost immediately, GFS forecasted this to strengthen to a Cat 2.

[AveryTheComrade]

Losing confidence in Gonzalo, seems to be struggling a lot with dry air these past few hours, unless it quickly gets its act back together I don't see this surviving much past Barbados

[gfsperpendicular]

They expanded hurricane warnings. Maybe just to be safe? This will have a hard time reaching hurricane intensity it seems.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I think we're all being a bit too hasty at writing off this system when it still has a good amount of time to filter out this dry air and make a run at hurricane status.

While it does look poor convectively, Gonzalo has done a decent job overnight in moistening up the general pocket it finds itself in. If Gonzalo can manage to ignite some more central convection, don't be surprised for it to redevelop quickly and intensify to hurricane status.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a blow up starting near the center. It needs to shake the band to the NW to start to consolidate

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[EquusStorm]

Wow this looks terrible this morning, gonna have to do way better that that if it's got a shot at hurricane intensity

[USTropics]

There is some good news for Gonzalo this morning. If the circulation can stabilize, the available moisture and an increase in RH levels is on the way. Below is an image of what is currently occurring. The two air masses (boundary edges highlighted in yellow) are causing the convective mass to the NW (circled in red) to be streamlined NW between these 2 air masses (red arrows). However, there is a plume of moisture quickly approach from the east (highlighted in blue). In addition, a moisture stream seen extending off the coast of SA (purple) will help to block off against some of this SW dry air entrainment (if Gonzalo is still strong enough to influence it).

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1286271529890783232

[abajan]

They expanded hurricane warnings. Maybe just to be safe? This will have a hard time reaching hurricane intensity it seems.

There are no hurricane warnings, only watches. Either way, I'm guessing they will be discontinued by tomorrow (unless Gonzalo gets his act together).

[abajan]

There is some good news for Gonzalo this morning. If the circulation can stabilize, the available moisture and an increase in RH levels is on the way. Below is an image of what is currently occurring. The two air masses (boundary edges highlighted in yellow) are causing the convective mass to the NW (circled in red) to be streamlined NW between these 2 air masses (red arrows). However, there is a plume of moisture quickly approach from the east (highlighted in blue). In addition, a moisture stream seen extending off the coast of SA (purple) will help to block off against some of this SW dry air entrainment (if Gonzalo is still strong enough to influence it).

https://i.imgur.com/ob7gK5G.png

If this pans out, you deserve a Nobel Prize.

[gfsperpendicular]

They expanded hurricane warnings. Maybe just to be safe? This will have a hard time reaching hurricane intensity it seems.

There are no hurricane warnings, only watches. Either way, I'm guessing they will be discontinued by tomorrow (unless Gonzalo gets his act together).

Oops, thanks for the correction. And yeah, he still has time but he's not in a good shape.

[northjaxpro]

I think we're all being a bit too hasty at writing off this system when it still has a good amount of time to filter out this dry air and make a run at hurricane status.

While it does look poor convectively, Gonzalo has done a decent job overnight in moistening up the general pocket it finds itself in. If Gonzalo can manage to ignite some more central convection, don't be surprised for it to redevelop quickly and intensify to hurricane status.

This!

[Frank2]

Glad the system looks terrible - we're having a bad enough time in South Florida without having to worry about hurricane panic buying. Could you imagine the supermarket if it's crowded with people?

That's why some of us mentioned the SAL back on Tuesday - the large area to the north was riding in tandem with the low, and that kind of environment is just not right for cyclone development.

[Ivanhater]

I'm having a hard time finding a center on visible. I wonder if the LLC opened up overnight

[RT23]

Look like Gonzalon having a very hard time keeping it together, wouldnt be surprised if at 11 am this is downgraded. Unless within the next two hours it can pull it self together, core looks over exposed and those hot towers look like a distant memory

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm having a hard time finding a center on visible. I wonder if the LLC opened up overnight

It's really hard to discern right now and honestly I'm not so sure there is one. Maybe around 47.8W and 10N but if it is still closed off it isn't looking particularly impressive.

Will ASCAT be in the area anytime soon?

[Do_For_Love]

Gonzalo is just full of surprises I guess, lol

[Ivanhater]

I'm having a hard time finding a center on visible. I wonder if the LLC opened up overnight

It's really hard to discern right now and honestly I'm not so sure there is one. Maybe around 47.8W and 10N but if it is still closed off it isn't looking particularly impressive.

Right, there was a big push of convection to the west last night and that looked to severely disrupt the LLC, if there still is one.

[MGC]

Another one bites the dust....Gonzalo is having a hard time with the SAL. Looks like it has passed its peak.....MGC