ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Its the perfect storm at the moment, very symmetrical without any undercutting shear to disrupt the tiny moisture envelope. The low level structure could run out from under the convection if a faster forward motion ensues, then we would get cycling bursts of convection till the slowdown.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT26 KNES 221833
TCSNTL

A. 07L (GONZALO)

B. 22/1730Z

C. 9.9N

D. 44.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTED IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE
3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

22/1634Z 10.0N 44.1W AMSR2


...ZHU

This is some JTWC tier dvoraking. Using curved band when it's trying to clear an eye is something else.

[St0rmTh0r]

We have 3/4 of a donut of -70 to -85 tops around the center now.

The eye up through all layers should begin to clear out with this type of convection.

How many feet do those towers get in the eyewall?

[tiger_deF]

Operation mitten is a go

[Chemmers]

Definitely trying to become the first major hurricane of the season

[GCANE]

Hot towers can reach into the stratosphere which is about 10 to 12 miles at 10N latitude.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_tower

[msbee]

I hope people in the islands are aware of Gonzalo! Seems possible it could pack a punch when it gets there...They probably need all the prep time they can get with COVID and everything

We are watching very closely here in BARBADOS, the EOC is gearing up and preps being made, Volunteer Emergency Teams are on standby. I know cuz I am a Volunteer F.R

Good luck! Stay safe!

[ScottNAtlanta]

The WV loop really tells the story of those hot towers

[Hurricane Mike]

Gonzalo is organizing but the small size makes it very vulnerable.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Gonzalo is organizing but the small size makes it very vulnerable.

It's small size is what is keeping it in the game...needs less fuel to intensify, keeps it from sucking in dry air to the north, and allows it to sit at this lower latitude. If it was a medium to large storm it would not survive.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks for the explanation G-cane
You are one very knowledgable person.

[GCANE]

Thanks for the explanation G-cane
You are one very knowledgable person.

Much thanks Miami Storm Tracker.

[tiger_deF]

Do tropical systems produce convection which helps lower pressures and organize the overall structure, or is the production of convection naturally caused by a deepening cyclone?

[Frank2]

Not as classic-looking right now as this time yesterday, when it had that CV appearance. My guess the dry air is having an effect. We'll see what the NHC says in their next discussion.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL072020

[Nimbus]

Do tropical systems produce convection which helps lower pressures and organize the overall structure, or is the production of convection naturally caused by a deepening cyclone?

Hot usually moist air rises and is replaced by inflow at the surface again usually moist.

[Yellow Evan]

AL, 07, 2020072218, , BEST, 0, 99N, 444W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GONZALO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019,

[cainjamin]

Not as classic-looking right now as this time yesterday, when it had that CV appearance. My guess the dry air is having an effect. We'll see what the NHC says in their next discussion.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL072020

Yeah seeing a lot less spiral banding than this time yesterday and compared to this morning. I wouldn't be surpised if this is a sign of Gonzalo moving into a drier airmass. Central convection is still pretty strong though at least.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not as classic-looking right now as this time yesterday, when it had that CV appearance. My guess the dry air is having an effect. We'll see what the NHC says in their next discussion.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL072020

Curious what they’ll say. The cirrus canopy has expanded a bit in the last hour and deep convection is holding strong. One thing that could be helping it strengthen in this regard is that there isn’t a dominant band that’s holding deep convection outside of the cdo. The existence of a band like that usually indicates leveling off intensity. None of that here.

[BYG Jacob]

Or he could be transitioning to a CDO dominant form

[Kazmit]

Any guesses on NHC intensity at 5pm? I'm thinking 65kts, but it's the NHC so I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower.