ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#561 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:29 pm

One would think that with a stronger than expected forecast, there would be downstream implications to track?
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#562 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:29 pm

Outside of occasional dry air problems I don’t see anything stopping a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by tomorrow as crazy as it sounds.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#563 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:30 pm

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

Oh yeah getting a little pink on eastern side of eye. That's cold :froze:
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#564 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:30 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:One would think that with a stronger than expected forecast, the track would also have more pronounced poleward changes with it?


Small system. HUGE HIGH pressure.. :)
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#565 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:30 pm

Firing off some real cold convection right near the eye to the west, the eyewall has been building or trying to build in the south and east too

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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#566 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:31 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1285975492101681159


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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#567 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:31 pm

White color popping up on IR. Hot tower reaching -80C now.

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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#568 Postby AubreyStorm » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:31 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Outside of occasional dry air problems I don’t see anything stopping a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by tomorrow as crazy as it sounds.


It’s supposed more strong, more North?
Obviously not this case, or I’m wrong?
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#569 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:34 pm

Coldest cloud top is likely extending into stratosphere. -90C

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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#570 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:35 pm

Little treat for everyone in the Atlantic models thread courtesy of the CMC. :eek:
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#571 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:36 pm

A very solid inner core developing as we chat on the thread. These small cyclones are amazing. They have their own unique enviroments, which often make it difficult for the reliable models to really get a good handle on them. They can ramp up very quickly, as we seen with Danny in 2015, and apparently what we are seeing with Gonzalo currently. It would not shock me in the least to see a period of RI over the next 12-24 hours .

The adverse with these small cyclones is that they can degrade just as quickly due to their small size. We will see later how Gonzolo fares the next few days.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#572 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:36 pm

SSTs are much warmer than Beryl had 2 years ago. That would mean Gonzalo may have a higher intensity ceiling.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#573 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:37 pm

Looks like the classic EYE wink is going to happen.. lol
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#574 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:39 pm

It is an eye.

Image
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#575 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:40 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#576 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:40 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Coldest cloud top is likely extending into stratosphere. -90C

https://i.imgur.com/NPhL3St.gif


-90C during the warmest part of the day out there. That’s an intense updraft.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#577 Postby Do_For_Love » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:41 pm

I hope people in the islands are aware of Gonzalo! Seems possible it could pack a punch when it gets there...They probably need all the prep time they can get with COVID and everything
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#578 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:42 pm

Do_For_Love wrote:I hope people in the islands are aware of Gonzalo! Seems possible it could pack a punch when it gets there...They probably need all the prep time they can get with COVID and everything


Especially the southern Windwards which don't get hurricanes that often.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#579 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:44 pm

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285991760179716099


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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Tropical Storm- Discussion

#580 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:44 pm

supercane4867 wrote:It is an eye.

https://i.imgur.com/8Cg6Ue9.png


This pass alone would honestly be enough to convince me it is a high end ts
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