ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

22/1130 UTC 9.2N 42.6W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic

NHC has some serious catch up to do. This is exactly why you don't play it conservative.

[plasticup]

(delete)

[GCANE]

If that is a developing eye, then a new tower is firing on the SE eyewall.

[Javlin]

Seven looks impressive this morning low crawlers like this one need to be monitored but on the other hand it needs some latitude also before SA and the mountains of Venezuela disrupt the system.Also their was talk of shear I thought on acc weather this morning around the Leewards I guess some of the other models sense this?but looking at the sat there appears none for hundreds of miles out front ATTM.

[Aric Dunn]

If that is a developing eye, then a new tower is firing on the SE eyewall.

It is. you can see on the west side the low and mid level thinner eyewall tops connecting the larger eyewall on from SE around to North..

[NDG]

The feeder band is interacting with the dryline and currently firing a couple of cells.
Another cell is on top of the CoC

https://i.imgur.com/WHr3E4N.png

I don't think it is interacting with the dry air because I can't see any outflows coming off it which would had been happening by now.

[Dean4Storms]

I know we need confirmation but there's little doubt in my mind that there's 35kt wind sustained somewhere in TD7 this morning.

[supercane4867]

[EquusStorm]

Yeah I don't get it. Is every MDR storm this year gonna have to work this hard to be named? I'm legitimately dumbfounded

[Aric Dunn]

that warmer eye feature has very distinctly begun spinning as this convection has wrapped around.

no doubt we have a eye forming on satellite.

[MississippiWx]

When did the JTWC overtake the NHC?

Satellite estimates have a tough time with small systems. The eye test is all you need to tell this is no tropical depression.

[Do_For_Love]

Pretty safe to say that Seven is becoming "Gonzo" today if not this morning, right? anyone disagree?

[NDG]

Zoomed in loop, definitely firing up convection on the SW quadrant of the eyewall feature.

[Ubuntwo]

Yeah I don't get it. Is every MDR storm this year gonna have to work this hard to be named? I'm legitimately dumbfounded

The 5am just had Pasch waiting on TAFB. Even explicitly saying

I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt
estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we
will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon.

Yeah they're dragging it out but we can expect a name at 11AM followed by an extension in post season.

[gfsperpendicular]

So the eye actually came before the name. Absolute madlads actually did it lol

Also, does anyone else feel like the NHC has been very conservative all year long? They seem like they've consistently gone on the lower side on intensity (Dolly, Cristina, TDs 5 and 7) and have waited longer than usual seemingly to mark areas of interest or to upgrade their chances.

[GCANE]

Big radial fingers in the cirrus.
Good sign of intensification.
IMHO, a strong TS.

[EquusStorm]

Just seems overly conservative to me, when they have to scramble to keep up if it keeps intensifying at this rate, but I guess it's pretty hard to know for sure with these tiny systems hard to sample on scatterometer

[NDG]

55 knots!!!!!!!!!!


22/1130 UTC 9.2N 42.6W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

if this trend continues from the past couple hours. we are about to have a clearing eye in the next hours or two.. lol

They will through one advisory as a TS then to a hurricane ..

[Nuno]

Wrapping up and tightening now. Making a run at hurricane strength?