ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the data GFS is given is totally boogus.
GFS is showing open circulations 850mb and up with no anti-cyclone.
Satellites and CIMSS showing this perfectly stacked thru 500mb.
Looking at satellite and outflow, no doubt this has a perfect anti-cyclone over this.
WTF.

[USTropics]

First visible imagery this morning. As the circulation and convective symmetry increased last night, it adversely has begun to tug at some of the dry air to the north. This has become entrained this morning, and a dry slot has developed (median highlighted in red). That's putting a bit of a cap on things right now. The center has begun to fire up some new convection in the last few frames, but it will definitely need to wall off against the dry air entrainment and recover some.

[northjaxpro]

The cycĺone has held up well overnight with convection sustaining around the low level circulation. Also, another thing IR and WV imagery are indicating to me is that the cyclone is beginning to separate itself from the ITCZ . I am not seeing that prominent tail it had yesterday from the ITCZ early this morning.

NHC is really being judicious with upgrading this cyclone. However, barring any sudden, unexpected degradations this morning, the reality is thst there is sufficient evidence there for finally upgrading this to TS Gonzalo later today.

[GCANE]

The feeder band is interacting with the dryline and currently firing a couple of cells.
Another cell is on top of the CoC

[supercane4867]

Looking good this morning.

[gfsperpendicular]

The same little warm spot has shown up in all the recent IR frames especially the last three. I don't want to overreact (especially since I'm not even sure it's over the center of the storm) but it's interesting.

[SFLcane]

This could attain hurricane status based on latest microwave shot. HWRF might not be so crazy after all lol

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why Pasch is being stubborn here. SAB and ADT and TAFB all average to support 35 knots and it's really arbitrary, at least in my view, to demand a full consensus with just TS threshold and all else. Not to mention it's IR and microwave presentation.

[supercane4867]

Not sure why Pasch is being stubborn here. SAB and ADT and TAFB all average to support 35 knots and it's really arbitrary, at least in my view, to demand a full consensus with just TS threshold and all else. Not to mention it's IR and microwave presentation.

Pasch likes continuity.

[Ubuntwo]

Not sure why Pasch is being stubborn here. SAB and ADT and TAFB all average to support 35 knots and it's really arbitrary, at least in my view, to demand a full consensus with just TS threshold and all else. Not to mention it's IR and microwave presentation.

Pasch likes continuity.

Yep, but with current dvorak trends 11AM* will surely pass that threshold. There's ASCAT to wait for soon as well.

[SFLcane]

Not sure why Pasch is being stubborn here. SAB and ADT and TAFB all average to support 35 knots and it's really arbitrary, at least in my view, to demand a full consensus with just TS threshold and all else. Not to mention it's IR and microwave presentation.

Yeah they've been a little behind the curve on this one. Will be upgraded at 11am I am sure.

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

We have a pinhole ELF on IR.

[NDG]

Best looking TD in the Atlantic ever

[Aric Dunn]

Best looking TD in the Atlantic ever

https://i.imgur.com/nSNBTj2.jpg

Yeppers. I would go with 60kts at the moment.

see if the eye actually becomes a little more distinct.

these small systems also give ASCAT a tough time.

[supercane4867]

A long curved band on microwave yields DT3.0. I would go with at least 40kt for next advisory.

[kevin]

Yeah this needs to be upgraded ASAP. It's still classified as a 'TD', but tbh it looks more like a TS/hurricane than a TD/TS at this point.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=16892.4765625&y=8655.74951171875

[supercane4867]

If the current trend holds, 06z HWRF @ 48hrs doesn't look too unrealistic.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1285899899851214848

[Aric Dunn]

It sure appears the Surge in the flow/SAL to the north has ran far out ahead of our TS> almost looks like the TC is about to slow down a tad..