ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

22/0530 UTC 9.8N 41.9W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic

[TheProfessor]

It's really expanded it's convection the last few hours. I'm thinking that I will be waking up to a tropical storm in the morning, but who knows. Nonetheless the next few days should definitely be interesting.

[Hammy]

Looks like we'll have our July MDR storm that everybody's been talking about being a prerequisite for an active season

On an interesting note I've been tracking hurricanes closely since about 1992-93 and this would only be the fourth time there'd be a named storm on my birthday during that time (which is Thursday), the others being 2005, 2008, and 2010.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like we'll have our July MDR storm that everybody's been talking about being a prerequisite for an active season

On an interesting note I've been tracking hurricanes closely since about 1992-93 and this would only be the fourth time there'd be a named storm on my birthday during that time (which is Thursday), the others being 2005, 2008, and 2010.

Happy early birthday!

[Ubuntwo]

Took a little sip of dry air

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks like we'll have our July MDR storm that everybody's been talking about being a prerequisite for an active season

On an interesting note I've been tracking hurricanes closely since about 1992-93 and this would only be the fourth time there'd be a named storm on my birthday during that time (which is Thursday), the others being 2005, 2008, and 2010.

Happy birthday!

Yeah, 07L making a bit of a push for tropical storm status, as the NHC forecasted it to do. We'll see what they say in a couple of hours.

[Ubuntwo]

I wonder if the little sip of dry air might help facilitate the formation of a primitive eyewall. Certainly seeing some hints on IR.

[Hammy]

I wonder if the little sip of dry air might help facilitate the formation of a primitive eyewall. Certainly seeing some hints on IR.

Given the size and location I wonder if this can pull a Danny-2015 and strengthen quickly (as it actually looked pretty doomed early on, but I remember that dry air also revealing a much tighter circulation than was known) and likewise hopefully weaken just as quickly before reaching the Caribbean.

Edit: looks like an eye forming, or at least some inner core banding. I'd put it at 50 mph at least.

[GCANE]

I wonder if the little sip of dry air might help facilitate the formation of a primitive eyewall. Certainly seeing some hints on IR.

Given the size and location I wonder if this can pull a Danny-2015 and strengthen quickly (as it actually looked pretty doomed early on, but I remember that dry air also revealing a much tighter circulation than was known) and likewise hopefully weaken just as quickly before reaching the Caribbean.

Happy Birthday Hammy.

This keeps looking better and better - latest microwaves here.

[chaser1]

Looks like we'll have our July MDR storm that everybody's been talking about being a prerequisite for an active season

On an interesting note I've been tracking hurricanes closely since about 1992-93 and this would only be the fourth time there'd be a named storm on my birthday during that time (which is Thursday), the others being 2005, 2008, and 2010.

Happy Birthday Hammy (well, a day early

[chaser1]

Tops have warmed significantly but structurally, this looks like a T.S. for sure

[GCANE]

Latest IR-Sat/ASCAT Wind Field estimate, RMW estimate, and R34 Radii estimate.

[AxaltaRacing24]

How did they keep this a TD?

[Extratropical94]

They really want to be 110% sure that they don't accidentally waste a name.

Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30
kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt
estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we
will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon.

[Chris90]

Microwave shows a compact core both at the lower and mid levels with an eyewall wrapping, it's really just open to the SW quad. Call me crazy, but I think this may actually be a hurricane already, especially considering its small size so it's probably working with a tighter pressure gradient.

[GCANE]

That TPW elongated front on top of this and convection firing to its west is keeping any dry-air entrusion out of the picture for the foreseeable future.

[Extratropical94]

SSD ADT numbers are on the rise

2020JUL22 070000 2.5 1011.4 35.0 2.5 2.7 2.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -58.16 -55.32 UNIFRM N/A -2.7 10.14 41.92 FCST GOES16 40.0
2020JUL22 073000 2.6 1010.3 37.0 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -57.16 -58.69 UNIFRM N/A -2.7 9.97 42.13 FCST GOES16 39.7
2020JUL22 080000 2.7 1009.1 39.0 2.7 3.0 3.3 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -54.16 -58.73 UNIFRM N/A -2.7 9.97 42.23 FCST GOES16 39.6
2020JUL22 083000 2.7 1009.1 39.0 2.7 3.0 3.4 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -55.16 -57.59 UNIFRM N/A -2.7 9.98 42.31 FCST GOES16 39.5

[Shell Mound]

I wonder if the little sip of dry air might help facilitate the formation of a primitive eyewall. Certainly seeing some hints on IR.

Given the size and location I wonder if this can pull a Danny-2015 and strengthen quickly (as it actually looked pretty doomed early on, but I remember that dry air also revealing a much tighter circulation than was known) and likewise hopefully weaken just as quickly before reaching the Caribbean.

Edit: looks like an eye forming, or at least some inner core banding. I'd put it at 50 mph at least.

https://i.imgur.com/iUd19En.png

Did the NHC ignore this microwave image? Maybe ASCAT is one of the reasons as to why the NHC is being so cautious at this time.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1285790966264274945

Emily is in no way comparable to this system. From the very first advisory on Emily:

THE DEPRESSION...WHILE WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN ONLY A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS SUCH...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...NEAR
29C SSTS...AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 112 KT IN 120 HOURS OR SO.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 10.8N 42.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 11.0N 44.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 11.5N 46.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 12.1N 49.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 12.8N 51.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 57.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 75 KT

Source

[Kingarabian]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynami ... .070pc.jpg

Looks like the definitions for TD's and TS's have changed this year lol.