Low over the NW GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[HurricaneBrain]

Looking good right now... If the convection persists in the next few hours I think we'll see a 30% or 40% chance on the next TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

ok..

now I smell a STWO coming soon..

Center forming quickly under the increasing convection. dont blink now.. you might miss all the fun.. I guess all the NW gulf people are still sleeping lol

[HurricaneBrain]

Yep, I was just about to post that too. Chances of development are obviously higher than 10% at this point...

ok..

now I smell a STWO coming soon..

Center forming quickly under the increasing convection. dont blink now.. you might miss all the fun.. I guess all the NW gulf people are still sleeping lol

https://i.ibb.co/ncBFSXg/Capture.png

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a version of the HRRR in 24 hours. borderline TS. saw a couple of wind barbs at TS strength.

https://i.ibb.co/vjB9kTP/Capture.png

I just want to point out the damn near pin point job the HRW-A meso model has done.. my post from yesterday.

and if the center continues to swing ese like it is right now.

by 1 pm which would be 24 hours after this image.. it pretty much nailed it.

https://i.ibb.co/vjB9kTP/Capture.png

Since it has seemed to do so well, could you give us a look at what this model has for the next 12- 24 hrs. Thanks Aric, asking for a friend haha

the model only runs 00z and 12z.

this is 15 hours from 00z last night. so 2 hours from now would be 15 hours from 00z. it rotates ESE.. pretty much what it is doing now..

[Steve]

^^ kangfirmed by the morning visibles. Maybe 12-18 hours early, but good job by the ICON from last week. Also, continued good job by the HRRR. 12Z should be running on that any minute which should have the simulated IR. I still don't think anything gets classified, but it's like a depression.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Every new radar image is like a reminder of Humberto.. that new center is doing so quick work..

[HurricaneBrain]

Thunderstorm activity is definitely not disorganized as the last TWO stated. It's flaring up all around that forming center Aric alluded to.

[Ivanhater]

Trying to spin up at the coast. Timing is the only issue I see here. The next wave will likely try the same once in the western Gulf imo.

Changed the title of the thread as well to reflect the low...

[Steve]

Trying to spin up at the coast. Timing is the only issue I see here. The next wave will likely try the same once in the western Gulf imo.

Changed the title of the thread as well to reflect the low...

Looks to me like the next one will enter the Gulf with a better spin. Overall, High Pressure is pushing things pretty far west. Luckily it's only July where most systems won't amount to too much compared with what is yet to come. You can imagine 8 or 9 hurricanes, some of which would undoubtedly be targeting the SEUS and Gulf.

[northjaxpro]

Every new radar image is like a reminder of Humberto.. that new center is doing so quick work..

Yeah , one of my favorite cyclones from the past from 2007. A firm reminder how quickly cyclones can develop in that area of the GOM, if they are given very conducive upper level environment and very wsrm ssts.

Welĺ, I am not anticipating this to really develop as there is just not enough time and open water before coming on shore. However, in this year 2020 when just about every thing out of the ordinary is seemingly occuring, heck this system may try to get classified .... We will see.

[wxman57]

I see one small low (1011mb) about 35 miles south of Galveston, not near the convection. Hopefully, it brings us some rain here in Houston today/tomorrow. So dry...

[Aric Dunn]

pretty straightforward..

you can watch the new center form on radar and surface obs.

this ese reform will give it more time over water. from the mesoscale models... it has another 15 to 20 hours over water ... plenty of time.

I still smell a STWO coming especially if we go another hour of this convection organizing the way it is.

[wxman57]

Looks like a broad low south of Galveston - near the left edge of those radar images. Note that radar is looking well above the surface. Surface obs don't indicate much. Should be inland by this evening. Very low chance of the NHC doing anything with this. Only "threat" is rain for the very dry NW Gulf coast.

[toad strangler]

Levi Cowan likes this feature but says there won't be enough time. However, the rains are coming.

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1285213019509796872

[HurricaneBrain]

[NDG]

Definitely low pressure center is not that close to the coast yet. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely low pressure center is not that close to the coast yet. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/vlq26YM.gif

agreed.. notice the buoy at the edge of the convection.. switched NE ?

well it just switch to east and nearby buoy switch to NW.

center is south of that buoy. looks like it is following the convective burts. that brings it plenty far enough offshore.

[Ivanhater]

What are the winds like?

[TheAustinMan]

It looks nice now, but the big question that faces this low (and many other fleeting features like it) is if it will maintain itself long after the morning. The vertical column is moist, but not aggressively so.

At its 00z run, the members of the SPC HREF ensemble (see below) generally had the system becoming a diffuse scattering of cirrus clouds by the evening. That said, the system looks a little better right now than the ensemble had for this time. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the Texas onshore flow this evening. Closing off a center in the meantime would provide a focusing mechanism for moisture and convection.

589 KB. Source: SPC HREF

[Aric Dunn]

It looks nice now, but the big question that faces this low (and many other fleeting features like it) is if it will maintain itself long after the morning. The vertical column is moist, but not aggressively so.

At its 00z run, the members of the SPC HREF ensemble (see below) generally had the system becoming a diffuse scattering of cirrus clouds by the evening. That said, the system looks a little better right now than the ensemble had for this time. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the Texas onshore flow this evening. Closing off a center in the meantime would provide a focusing mechanism for moisture and convection.

589 KB. Source: SPC HREF
https://i.imgur.com/Pk7nIxB.png

yep always have to watch out for that sea breeze disruption..
one thing it does have going for it in regards to that.. is current rain fall along much of the coast..

surface base heating should be far inland and may not allow for much of a sea breeze to develop along the southern texas coast.