Low over the NW GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[USTropics]

The NHC is also not attaching this to the wave axis in their surface analysis:

[Monsoonjr99]

Minor quibble. This is more of a "pseudo" tropical wave, which is why, when I took the liberty of re-titling the thread, I used "inverted trough" instead of "tropical wave". In spite of offices adjacent to ours having called this feature a t-wave in their AFDs, it's really not. It's origin is a low level vort lobe that broke off an old frontal boundary over the western Atlantic a few days ago and then moved across south Florida Fri night into early Saturday morning. I realize some folks, even professional mets, like to play fast and loose with the terms "easterly wave" and "tropical wave", since In terms of sensibile weather effects, there's not a whole lot of difference (although true AEWs tend to be more robust). I reserve the term "topical wave" for true AEWs.

Didn't Erin last year form from something similar to this?

[AJC3]

Minor quibble. This is more of a "pseudo" tropical wave, which is why, when I took the liberty of re-titling the thread, I used "inverted trough" instead of "tropical wave". In spite of offices adjacent to ours having called this feature a t-wave in their AFDs, it's really not. It's origin is a low level vort lobe that broke off an old frontal boundary over the western Atlantic a few days ago and then moved across south Florida Fri night into early Saturday morning. I realize some folks, even professional mets, like to play fast and loose with the terms "easterly wave" and "tropical wave", since In terms of sensibile weather effects, there's not a whole lot of difference (although true AEWs tend to be more robust). I reserve the term "topical wave" for true AEWs.

Didn't Erin last year form from something similar to this?

Different synoptic setup, but there was obvious baroclnic initiation/forcing given the latitude of Erin's genesis (31.7N)

[TheProfessor]

Well this thread doesn't look like it's about the tropical wave in the eastern Gulf...

This wave has lower development chances than the one behind it. This wave just looks to help enhance rainfall across southeast TX and LA early next week.

Yeah, we were just tripping on some marmalade skies. Haha. Anyway, I didn't think the second low was going to do anything either. But the next surge is aimed for the SC/SW LA Coast. I thought this might be the energy ICON was closing off near SWLA earlier in the week and then gradually shifted it a little south and west toward the TX Coast. General flow out of the SE is across the Gulf. What's weird about ICON's rainfall depictions is that it all stays almost offshore. I'm not buying into that completely. It currently closes off a weak low south of Houma on Wednesday night, moves it toward Galveston and then up toward Dallas. Looks pretty insignificant, but it could keep things cloudy and temperatures down across the central and western Gulf this week.

ICON Rainfall Depiction through next Sunday morning (180 hours)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

GFS through 180
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

CMC through 180
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

Here's HRRR IR Sim through 18 hours showing a lot of popup storms on the IR tomorrow.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1904&fh=18

This is something I've noticed that the ICON does consistently over the years. Precipitation will just cut off right up against land. I wouldn't focus on the model's QPF totals, just that it's showing something producing precipitation in the northwest Gulf. The Canadian ensembles are picking this up again as well.

[Aric Dunn]

On a side note.. the low level vorticity this morning has increased quite a bit.

Some broad rotation noted in the low levels. Looks like it needs to be watched

[toad strangler]

Awesome stuff AJC3 .... do you work for NWS MLB??

[tailgater]

Looks like a weak wave passing through with a little extra t-storm activity from the shear that’s not depicted on the maps. Time to go cut the grass before pop ups begin, oh yeah and harvest the tangerine and strawberries.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

[Steve]

We're about to get that leading edge in an hour or so.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

Biggest effects per the 12Z HRRR will be cloud cover and precipitation over SWLA/SETX.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[Aric Dunn]

The trough continues to sharpen. if convection keeps doing this it might try to make a run at it.

surface obs showing the "inverted" V very nicely.

visible showing some easterly moving low clouds just to the south of surface obs.

Meso scale models are 50/50 with something trying to get going.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a version of the HRRR in 24 hours. borderline TS. saw a couple of wind barbs at TS strength.

[Steve]

Yeah, it looks like the conditions get better as it get to or inland in Texas in a couple days. I don't think it will get a classification, but it's a decent little system. It's pretty breezy here teens gusting to +/- 20.

[davidiowx]

Looks interesting on visible..

[Aric Dunn]

Looks interesting on visible..

Yeah. convection continues to expand and slowly organize.

I would not write this off.. vorticity continues to increase.

[MississippiWx]

I could see this area becoming another weak TS before landfall. This area of the Gulf is notorious for quick/unadvertised spin-ups.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if it is tagged with an Invest.

[Aric Dunn]

I would not be surprised if it is tagged with an Invest.

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC mentions it later.

it continues to show signs of organizing.

[NDG]

This trough has definitely organized more than what I remember seeing models showing the past few days, sign that the TW over Hispaniola will probably do the same.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder what the over night is going to do when surface convergence increase was the land breezes.

[Aric Dunn]

HRRR the last couple runs now showing this starting to come together by tomorrow morning..

upper winds looks to become more favorable tomorrow.

interesting progress with the system.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I think that the most important thing to watch over the next 12 hours is that most models are showing the associated convection essentially dissolving due to the system moving into an area of shear of 20-25 knots and some relatively dry air in the mid-levels. If the convection manages to persist despite the worsening conditions, then the possibility of this system establishing a closed low-level center and becoming designated as a TD can't be discounted. This system has sort of a similar path/setup that the MCS had that traversed the northwestern Gulf of Mexico a few days ago.

There's a more favorable window for the system tomorrow, in about the final 12 hours it has over water. It's worth watching, but my bet is that this system falls just a bit short.