2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

Just to many '' Tutts '' right now.

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1283124584959680535

[MarioProtVI]

I think 2017 or 2010-like quality of activity (lots of hurricanes and several majors, around 5-6) is likely given that it seems most of the energy in the NHem is gonna be focused on the Atlantic given that the Eastern and Western Pacific are doing absolutely pathetic (especially in the former’s case).

[Aric Dunn]

hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.

[TheStormExpert]

Just to many '' Tutts '' right now.

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1283124584959680535

It’s strange considering a few kept saying that there would be an abundance of TUTT’s.

[TheStormExpert]

Ridge pretty much in place, will be interesting to see how this evolves during ASO.

https://i.ibb.co/hsWHRKq/gfs-z500a-atl-29.png

Definitely not a classic -NAO look.

[AnnularCane]

hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.

Always with the bold predictions.

[StruThiO]

hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.

hottest take yet

[toad strangler]

hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.

I don't think you like the Indicators thread

[Aric Dunn]

hey guess what.. I think there will be some hurricanes at some point this season somewhere.

I don't think you like the Indicators thread

nothing wrong with it..

just sometimes when you get three pages of everyone interpreting the same thing 100 different ways... sometimes you just have to agree there will be some hurricanes somewhere at some point . lol

[gatorcane]

Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?

[Chris90]

The thing with the models is, if they're not verifying in the EPAC, then maybe they aren't going to verify in showing minimal activity in the ATL the next few weeks. I'm not a big model watcher like others here; quite frankly, I usually rely on other posters here and the images and discussion they bring for a majority of my experience with models, so I'm far from being an expert on models, I'm more entry-level amateur. But I know the models have received upgrades the past few years to correct abundance of phantom storms, etc., so if they're working with assumptions of the more favorable state the EPAC has been working with the past few years, and the less favorable/average state the ATL has been working with, maybe they're overselling the EPAC and underselling the ATL?

I'm still thinking the MDR lid is going to be lifted before the Aug. 20th bell ringing, and I think it's going to take off, and models may not give much notice.

Also, just to note, I actually really like the discussion about steering patterns and future possibilities. I know it's so hard to predict even a week out, much less weeks in advance, but I still find the discussion informative and interesting. This is my favorite thread on the forum.

[TheStormExpert]

Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?

I definitely don’t expect a 1933 or 2005 repeat but something similar to 2010 or 2017 I would expect. Don’t know why Joe Bastardi keeps saying a 2005 repeat, would like to see some of his reasoning behind that.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?

I definitely don’t expect a 1933 or 2005 repeat but something similar to 2010 or 2017 I would expect. Don’t know why Joe Bastardi keeps saying a 2005 repeat, would like to see some of his reasoning behind that.

I will say something I am starting to pick up on in the modeling, and its just starting in the long range, is that there are some strong waves exiting Africa with good vorticity but they don't develop. That happened for many of the storms in 2005. They struggled, but when they found the favorable conditions they took off. The ones that could hold their own until then are also the ones you have to watch, plus when these start to develop coming NW out of the MDR and are forced west...That's when you are in trouble. I have never seen a developing storm hook to the west that didn't get significantly stronger. There is a long list of them and most are very notable. Hopefully the pattern wont set up this way, but it sure is a possibility

[CyclonicFury]

It is tough to say when the so-called "lid" will come off, but it is likely at least a few weeks away. However, models often do not forecast this well in advance.

The "lid" came off rather abruptly last year. As late as August 20, an invest (97L) only had a 10% chance of development and was thought to have no chance due to moving over cooler waters. There was a lot of speculation that August could go without a tropical cyclone at all, primarily due to persistent sinking motion. 97L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Chantal that night - a rather insignificant storm itself, but it started a period of activity. A few days later, a small tropical disturbance formed over the central MDR. Despite a lack of much model support, it became Tropical Storm Dorian on August 24 and a 185-mph Category 5 hurricane a week later. What happened last August is a prime example of how quickly things can change in the tropics. 2017 as well, there was season canceling on here right before Harvey regenerated.

[TheProfessor]

It is tough to say when the so-called "lid" will come off, but it is likely at least a few weeks away. However, models often do not forecast this well in advance.

The "lid" came off rather abruptly last year. As late as August 20, an invest (97L) only had a 10% chance of development and was thought to have no chance due to moving over cooler waters. There was a lot of speculation that August could go without a tropical cyclone at all, primarily due to persistent sinking motion. 97L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Chantal that night - a rather insignificant storm itself, but it started a period of activity. A few days later, a small tropical disturbance formed over the central MDR. Despite a lack of much model support, it became Tropical Storm Dorian on August 24 and a 185-mph Category 5 hurricane a week later. What happened last August is a prime example of how quickly things can change in the tropics. 2017 as well, there was season canceling on here right before Harvey regenerated.

It's been talked about in other threads, maybe this one too, but if you go back and look even 2005 after the insane July there was talks about the season be cancelled and questions of where the storms are at during the short dead period in late July through early-mid August. There was even that one poster from New Orleans who started the chilling thread of when the next storm was going to be only a few days before Katrina formed. The point I'm making is that this season cancelled stuff seems to happen every year and almost every year it bites us in the butt come peak season. Yes you can look at all the indicators that factor into hurricane season, but climatology is a powerful tool for a forecaster and climatology says this is a typical dead period for hurricane season while things really ramp up in mid to late August. Unless it's pretty obvious that El Nino and shear are going to be cause detrimental conditions for storms during the peak, it's a pretty sure bet that we will see multiple hurricanes and likely some strong ones as well. Where they go? Who knows, but at this point you can pretty confidently say there will being something spinning in the Atlantic during the peak and we all know it just take 1 bad storm to make it a bad season.

[IsabelaWeather]

Models are eerily quiet for all basins except some activity in the EPAC and even there the models haven’t really been verifying. Still wondering if cyclone activity for the Atlantic will be down more than expected this year because of something going on that may not be apparent yet. The hurricanes will come but as each day goes by and the models show zilch, the chances do start to drop of a hyperactive 2005 or 1933 type season. We should have already had MDR hurricanes by now if we were to have a record-breaking season like those years. I do recall some using those years as analogs. Of course as we head into August things should become more active because climo says so but how hyperactive will it really get?

I definitely don’t expect a 1933 or 2005 repeat but something similar to 2010 or 2017 I would expect. Don’t know why Joe Bastardi keeps saying a 2005 repeat, would like to see some of his reasoning behind that.

He's a nut. I lost complete faith in him when I lived back in Michigan (huge snow lover) going 3 years in a row saying "snowiest winter in decades coming" and complete blowtorch.

[hurricanes1234]

It is tough to say when the so-called "lid" will come off, but it is likely at least a few weeks away. However, models often do not forecast this well in advance.

The "lid" came off rather abruptly last year. As late as August 20, an invest (97L) only had a 10% chance of development and was thought to have no chance due to moving over cooler waters. There was a lot of speculation that August could go without a tropical cyclone at all, primarily due to persistent sinking motion. 97L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Chantal that night - a rather insignificant storm itself, but it started a period of activity. A few days later, a small tropical disturbance formed over the central MDR. Despite a lack of much model support, it became Tropical Storm Dorian on August 24 and a 185-mph Category 5 hurricane a week later. What happened last August is a prime example of how quickly things can change in the tropics. 2017 as well, there was season canceling on here right before Harvey regenerated.

It's been talked about in other threads, maybe this one too, but if you go back and look even 2005 after the insane July there was talks about the season be cancelled and questions of where the storms are at during the short dead period in late July through early-mid August. There was even that one poster from New Orleans who started the chilling thread of when the next storm was going to be only a few days before Katrina formed. The point I'm making is that this season cancelled stuff seems to happen every year and almost every year it bites us in the butt come peak season. Yes you can look at all the indicators that factor into hurricane season, but climatology is a powerful tool for a forecaster and climatology says this is a typical dead period for hurricane season while things really ramp up in mid to late August. Unless it's pretty obvious that El Nino and shear are going to be cause detrimental conditions for storms during the peak, it's a pretty sure bet that we will see multiple hurricanes and likely some strong ones as well. Where they go? Who knows, but at this point you can pretty confidently say there will being something spinning in the Atlantic during the peak and we all know it just take 1 bad storm to make it a bad season.

This!!

And combined with the many concurrent ominous indicators/forecasts specific to 2020 which have already been discussed countless times and which continue to be seen day after day, I think a very active season is at least highly likely.

Of course, there can be a major bust as nothing is ever 100% certain or fixed in the weather (especially tropical weather) but given most of the indicators, forecasts and parameters thus far for the last several months, there is good reason to believe that the probability of this happening is unusually low this year.

Now if in a couple months' time we don't see anything noteworthy or promising, maybe then we could start wondering about the forecasts but it's still so early, we're only 6 weeks and 3 days into the season as of July 15 and we still have 4 and a half months to go (roughly 75% of the season still left, including all three peak months where activity soars and concentrates itself).

[IsabelaWeather]

This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?

400-700mb RH is moist as well.

Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out.


EDIT: why isnt the imgur link working, I had it working the other night.

[Chris90]

https://imgur.com/a/8Q1XyOE

This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?

400-700mb RH is moist as well.

Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out.


EDIT: why isnt the imgur link working, I had it working the other night.

Are you using your phone or a PC? Anytime I have tried to post an image from imgur using my phone it absolutely does not work, I have to use my laptop.
On a computer, right click on the imgur image and it should bring up a list of options. I believe the one you want is the BBcode. Copy that and just paste that link directly into your post and it should work.

Hope that helps.

[IsabelaWeather]

https://imgur.com/a/8Q1XyOE

This is really looking nice, to my noob eye. It looks like there is some rotation here; invest incoming?

400-700mb RH is moist as well.

Current GFS has some definite vorticity in this general area around 48hrs from now, but it seems to peter out.


EDIT: why isnt the imgur link working, I had it working the other night.

Are you using your phone or a PC? Anytime I have tried to post an image from imgur using my phone it absolutely does not work, I have to use my laptop.
On a computer, right click on the imgur image and it should bring up a list of options. I believe the one you want is the BBcode. Copy that and just paste that link directly into your post and it should work.

Hope that helps.

Thanks, the BB code fixed it.