When Will Gonzalo Form?

[chaser1]

Gonzalo will officially be the 7th named Tropical Storm of this curiously active Atlantic season. So far this season we have NOT gone a full two weeks' lull without another T.S. being named, have yet to see any T.S. form in the MDR, and have yet to see any named storm reach hurricane intensity. Will Gonzalo just be the next home grown T.S. also failing to reach hurricane intensity, or will it mark the beginning of the "next phase" of this active season?

At this point, i'm guessing the latter. I'm going to guess 7/21 - 7/31. I think Gonzalo will finally be the first MDR storm and eventually will reach hurricane intensity.

7/10 - 7/20
7/21 - 7/31
8/1 - 8/11
8/12 - 8/22
Not before August 22

[CyclonicFury]

July 28, MDR near 13N 55W. Strengthens into a Category 1 hurricane over the western subtropical Atlantic in early August.

[northjaxpro]

July 21

[floridasun78]

8/1 - 8/11

[TheStormExpert]

At this rate probably the last third of this month. Maybe in the Western Tropical Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles but I wouldn’t be surprised to see yet another storm form off the U.S. East Coast. My guess on intensity is anywhere from a mid-grade TS to Cat.1 hurricane.

[aspen]

I’m thinking somewhere between July 16th and 23rd, either in the Gulf/NW Caribbean or the MDR, and it’ll be the first hurricane of the year. Probably nothing huge (it is still July after all), but more substantial than Arthur-Fay. I’m mainly basing this off of the latest EPS ensembles, the possibility of increased AEWs mid/late month due to an MJO over Africa, and the untapped supply of high SSTs and ocean heat in the western Gulf/NW Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

I’m thinking somewhere between July 16th and 23rd, either in the Gulf/NW Caribbean or the MDR, and it’ll be the first hurricane of the year. Probably nothing huge (it is still July after all), but more substantial than Arthur-Fay. I’m mainly basing this off of the latest EPS ensembles, the possibility of increased AEWs mid/late month due to an MJO over Africa, and the untapped supply of high SSTs and ocean heat in the western Gulf/NW Caribbean.

Ahh, great minds think alike. I think we will get development within the next 10 days as a couple of the long range reliable models are hinting at potential in the GOM.....

[cycloneye]

chaser1 made a poll that will be open for voting until July 15 at 11:51 AM EDT.

[TallyTracker]

I will be somewhat surprised if we don’t have Gonzalo by the end of the month. Assuming it’s not another Gulf low or subtropical system in the subtropics, I would guess either Caribbean or just east of the Lesser Antilles in the MDR would be the most likely genesis locations.

Heck, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get Hanna as well by the end of July with 3 weeks to go.

[Chris90]

I voted July 11-20th. I think something will pop up in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE coast which has been favored.
It's interesting to note that the next 3 storms will be the G, H, and I storms. In 2017 this was Gert, Harvey, and Irma, and we all remember the majors that were Harvey and Irma, and I'd actually argue for Gert being a major as well. Comparing that to this year, we're really burning through names this year. If things keep going the way they have been, but conditions supporting majors don't kick in until the August 20th bell ringing, we might not see a major until somewhere in J-K-L-M-N. Imagine if the first major this year is named Nana.

[chaser1]

I voted July 11-20th. I think something will pop up in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE coast which has been favored.
It's interesting to note that the next 3 storms will be the G, H, and I storms. In 2017 this was Gert, Harvey, and Irma, and we all remember the majors that were Harvey and Irma, and I'd actually argue for Gert being a major as well. Comparing that to this year, we're really burning through names this year. If things keep going the way they have been, but conditions supporting majors don't kick in until the August 20th bell ringing, we might not see a major until somewhere in J-K-L-M-N. Imagine if the first major this year is named Nana.

Yeah, I don't want THAT to happen LOL. It would mean that my all-time favorite "hurricane name" - Hannah, would go to waste. Hannah just strikes me to be that monster Cat 6 'cane that would be mesmerizing to see on satellite!

[Chris90]

I voted July 11-20th. I think something will pop up in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE coast which has been favored.
It's interesting to note that the next 3 storms will be the G, H, and I storms. In 2017 this was Gert, Harvey, and Irma, and we all remember the majors that were Harvey and Irma, and I'd actually argue for Gert being a major as well. Comparing that to this year, we're really burning through names this year. If things keep going the way they have been, but conditions supporting majors don't kick in until the August 20th bell ringing, we might not see a major until somewhere in J-K-L-M-N. Imagine if the first major this year is named Nana.

Yeah, I don't want THAT to happen LOL. It would mean that my all-time favorite "hurricane name" - Hannah, would go to waste. Hannah just strikes me to be that monster Cat 6 'cane that would be mesmerizing to see on satellite!

It's interesting that you have an all-time favorite hurricane name, I've never thought about it. I tend to have a hard time picturing any storms as Cat 5 monsters until it actually happens. Harvey, Irma, Maria, all of those names just sounded peaceful and lovely until 2017 happened. I think the most fitting name out of the past few years has been Dorian because for some reason, that name does sound destructive to me (I mean it sounded destructive before it actually did become a destructive monster last year.) Maybe it's because I knew of a Dorian who had a hand in wrecking a relationship . (Not mine btw, I feel like that dynamite smilie might be a tad dramatic, but I thought it was funny.)

The only names that come to mind as being potential all time favorites are Kirk, Van, Margot (Maria's replacement.) So 2 of them haven't even been used yet.
I actually prefer names in the EPAC, like Beatriz, Dalila, Jova, and I'd love to one day see York get used.

[aspen]

I voted July 11-20th. I think something will pop up in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE coast which has been favored.
It's interesting to note that the next 3 storms will be the G, H, and I storms. In 2017 this was Gert, Harvey, and Irma, and we all remember the majors that were Harvey and Irma, and I'd actually argue for Gert being a major as well. Comparing that to this year, we're really burning through names this year. If things keep going the way they have been, but conditions supporting majors don't kick in until the August 20th bell ringing, we might not see a major until somewhere in J-K-L-M-N. Imagine if the first major this year is named Nana.

Yeah, I don't want THAT to happen LOL. It would mean that my all-time favorite "hurricane name" - Hannah, would go to waste. Hannah just strikes me to be that monster Cat 6 'cane that would be mesmerizing to see on satellite!

It’s also a name I’m very concerned about this year. All previous iterations of Hannah have been weak, it escaped retirement in 2008, and it’s been around for some time. This screams the possibility that it’ll finally become a behemoth this year, and these are most of the reasons I was concerned about Matthew in 2016 (weak past versions and an escaped retirement).

[storminabox]

Not gonna lie, I kinda hope Gonzalo becomes a major hurricane out in the MDR (of course not threatening land), because I’m a big fan of that name. Highly doubt it though.

[Sciencerocks]

Sometime in the first week of August around 50 west within the MDR. This storm will become a major hurricane and threaten the United states.

[stpeteweathergal]

Purely a WAG for 8/11-8/20. There's something about the 13th that lures me.

[chaser1]

Purely a WAG for 8/11-8/20. There's something about the 13th that lures me.

Now that would suggest a more reasonable mid-season lull between now and then. If you are right, I'd guess Gonzalo would be a far cry different from the previous weak storms we've seen so far as well as form further to the east.

[CrazyC83]

Very early days of August. First in the MDR and the first hurricane, possibly a major.

[Ubuntwo]

Early August, I'm thinking a low latitude system that develops from an AEW in the Eastern Caribbean. Low-end major?

[chaser1]

Nothing in the models appear to indicate any hint of near term development. In fact, other then around Northern Newfoundland or the Labrador Sea, I was hard-pressed to even find any GFS forecast 1000mb sub-tropical or non-tropical lows that NHC would bother taking an inquisitive look at. Interestingly, the EURO long range appears to be sniffing out what could be the season's first legitimate MDR invest beginning around the 216 hr range in the far east Atlantic. Perhaps a subtle seasonal switch from several home-grown weaker sisters, to deep easterly trade borne tropical cyclones is in the process of occurring. More and more I am thinking that Gonzalo will signal the transition....... to this season's "mean-season"