Will any named storms form in the MDR in July?

[cycloneye]

This poll question is about if the MDR will have named storm@s forming on July not how many if they form. Only two options, yes or no and poll will be open for voting until July 12 at 5:36 PM EDT.

[aspen]

I voted yes, but I highly doubt we’ll get anything even like Bertha ‘08. Near the end of the month, one tropical wave will get the opportunity to develop, and it probably won’t get any stronger than a C1 hurricane.

[CyclonicFury]

I'd say it's possible, but not before July 15. I voted no because of the lack of any hints of deep tropics activity on models, but that could change.

[AtlanticWind]

I voted yes ,looks to me conditions are fairly favorable for july.
Would not be suprised to see it be of hurricane strength.

[beoumont]

Yes. On July 20, next new moon.

[captainbarbossa19]

I voted "no" because July MDR activity only happens in rare situations. I may be wrong, but I think the real action will start in mid-August. 2020 has certainly been a year of surprises thus far though.

[Hammy]

It's looking less likely but it also looks like we've settled into a pattern for July that August 2018 was in, one which I pointed out in itself felt more typical of July at the time.

[tailgater]

Large wave exiting the Western Africa coast today will need to be watch, large flare up this morning but warming clouds now.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ima ... 081635.jpg

[aspen]

I still think we’ll set something in the last 7-10 days of July, as SAL winds down and MDR season begins to pick up.

[northjaxpro]

We will see a storm dèvelop in the MDR by July 22.

[chaser1]

Yes, on July 21 at 10.7N & 46.5W with an estimated 1006 mb pressure (one day following the New Moon)

[cycloneye]

This poll has closed for voting and it was a landslide for the yes option. We will see in reallity how the MDR evolves in the next almost 3 weeks.

[EquusStorm]

On the subject of July in the current active era, decided to look through some maps and statistics. There have been nine hyperactive seasons beginning in 1995 based on Wikipedia ACE data at least (~155+ ACE or so) I looked at named storms pre-August and their origins for each year.

Of the nine hyperactive years, before August 1st...
1995: Five named storms including one hurricane, three from tropical origins. Very active early season
1996: Three named storms, two hurricanes, one major (Bertha) all tropical. Active early season
1998: Just one named storm, at the end of July, from tropical wave. Then quiet until August 19
1999: Just one named storm, in June, from nontropical origins. Quiet until August 18
2003: Four named storms incl two hurricanes, three tropical. Active early season
2004: Only the tropical depression that would become Alex (July 31) - no named storms before August
2005: Seven all-tropical named storms including violent Dennis/Emily, extraordinary activity
2010: Two named storms, incl Hurricane Alex in June, both tropical, then only one weak TS until late Aug
2017: Five named storms, three tropical; all brief tropical storms, lowest ACE for first 5 on record at that time

Total named storms prior to August 1st and tropical-wave induced storms ONLY (t), vs season total and seasonal ACE
1995: 5 (5/1/0) 3t; ACE 227 (19/11/5) 17t HA
1996: 3 (3/2/1) 3t; ACE 166 (13/9/6) 12t HA
1997: 5 (5/2/0) 0t; ACE 40 (8/3/1) 2t BN
1998: 1 (1/0/0) 1t; ACE 181 (14/10/3) 12t HA
1999: 1 (1/0/0) 0t; ACE 176 (12/8/5) 10t HA
2000: 0 (0/0/0) 0t; ACE 119 (15/8/3) 12t AN
2001: 1 (1/0/0) 1t; ACE 110 (15/9/4) 10t NN
2002: 1 (1/0/0) 0t; ACE 67 (12/4/2) 4t NN
2003: 4 (4/2/0) 3t; ACE 176 (16/7/3) 12t HA
2004: 0 (0/0/0) 0t; ACE 226 (15/9/6) 11t HA
2005: 7 (7/3/2) 7t; ACE 250 (28/15/7) 22t HA
2006: 3 (3/0/0) 1t; ACE 78 (10/5/2) 8t NN
2007: 3 (3/0/0) 0t; ACE 73 (15/6/2) 8t NN
2008: 4 (4/2/1) 3t; ACE 145 (16/8/5) 12t AN
2009: 0 (0/0/0) 0t; ACE 52 (9/3/2) 8t BN
2010: 2 (2/1/0) 2t; ACE 165 (19/12/5) 17t HA
2011: 4 (4/0/0) 2t; ACE 126 (19/7/4) 11t AN
2012: 4 (4/1/0) 1t; ACE 132 (19/10/2) 14t AN
2013: 4 (4/0/0) 4t; ACE 36 (14/2/0) 12t BN
2014: 1 (1/1/0) 0t; ACE 66 (8/6/2) 6t NN
2015: 3 (3/0/0) 0t; ACE 62 (11/4/2) 6t BN
2016: 4 (4/1/0) 2t; ACE 141 (15/7/4) 13t AN
2017: 5 (5/0/0) 3t; ACE 224 (17/10/6) 13t HA
2018: 3 (3/2/0) 1t; ACE 132 (15/8/2) 8t AN
2019: 2 (2/1/0) 0t; ACE 132 (18/6/3) 8t AN
2020: 9 (9/2/0) 4t

There isn't a strong enough correlation between number of storms before August and total activity to use as an absolute rule imo, especially if storms of nontropical origin are included. While 5 of the 9 hyperactive seasons (1995, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2017) featured at least three storms of tropical origin before August 1st, the remainder featured less, with two in 2010, one in 1998, and none of tropical origin in 1999 or 2004. That being said, having three tropical wave-spawned named storms before August COULD be a pretty good benchmark, as of the seven seasons with three or more strictly tropical named storms prior to August, only two were not hyperactive; 2013 - a massive statistical outlier - and 2008, which was a very significant season not far below the hyperactive threshold. In a normal season, that would seem to mean that statistically three tropical wave spawned storms before August would almost universally mean a very active to hyperactive season, but the lack of them doesn't strongly correlate to overall activity.

Only one of our storms thus far this season has been STRICTLY tropical in origin (Cristobal) which makes the total storm count seem fairly unimportant, and puts us on par with many other seasons. We're still well ahead of 1998, 1999, and 2004 in tropical wave-spawned cyclones by the calendar date though, so a hyperactive season is certainly not out of the question. Not a guarantee of course, but not an indication that the year will be a bust either.

Another way of looking at things, since we're discussing open Atlantic MDR storms in July instead of just tropical waves across the entire basin, would be to look at those open-Atlantic July storms (June in Bret 2017's case) that have developed between 1995 and 2019.

Named storms of tropical wave origins between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast before August 1st, NOT INCLUDING Bahamas, Caribbean, or Gulf:

1995: 1 HA
1996: 1 HA
1997: 0 BN (One TD)
1998: 1 HA
1999: 0 HA
2000: 0 AN (One TD; Alberto on Aug 3)
2001: 0 NN (One TD)
2002: 0 NN
2003: 0 HA (Two TD; Chantal closed off barely in E Caribbean)
2004: 0 HA
2005: 2 HA (barely counting Dennis)
2006: 0 NN (Chris on Aug 1)
2007: 0 NN
2008: 1 AN
2009: 0 BN
2010: 0 HA (Colin on Aug 2)
2011: 0 AN (Emily on Aug 2)
2012: 0 AN (Ernesto on Aug 1)
2013: 2 BN
2014: 0 NN (One TD; Bertha on Aug 1)
2015: 0 BN
2016: 0 AN
2017: 2 HA (One TD)
2018: 1 AN
2019: 0 AN
2020: 1 (2 if we count Isaias' TS strength PTC phase)

Over the last 24 years, that's an average of 0.45 MDR pre-August named storms per year if we count Dennis and don't count storms that form on August 1st.

So we can see that named storms between the Antilles and Africa before August are pretty uncommon; only 8 of the last 24 years saw that happen, for a total of eleven storms. Of those eight seasons, five were hyperactive, two were above normal with ACE >130, and the other was 2013, which was a statistical anomaly. 2013 was one of only three seasons to feature MULTIPLE named storms developing there, the other two seasons (2005 and 2017) featuring ACE >220. Tropical depressions have occurred in that region with decent frequency even on off years though.

I guess what this seems to indicate is that 2013 could have been an apocalyptic season had it not been for unusual circumstances beyond the normal scope of seasonal forecasts... everything else seems to line up pretty well with pre-August MDR tropical cyclones being associated with a very active >130 ACE season just from a statistical point of view and nothing else.

Neither, though, does a lack of them necessarily indicate a season will be inactive of course

Also worth noting that 2005 featured surprisingly few storms between the Lesser Antilles and Africa even during peak season compared to the total storm count, with most systems being home-grown and the MDR systems we did get almost universally moving into the subtropics before really taking off; could be the case this year even if the MDR is less than favorable at the heart of the season

[CyclonicFury]

Looking pretty likely the answer will be yes.

[FireRat]

We're about to find out perhaps at 11, if not early tomorrow morning!

[AnnularCane]

Yes, at least one.

[EquusStorm]

Well, now we're up to three systems of tropical origin before August assuming Hanna gets named, which really puts us on par with the more active years. 1995, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2013, and 2017 had at least three all of which were hyperactive except 2008 (very near hyperactive) and 2013 (would have been hyperactive save for highly unusual unexpected factors) - if that one modeled storm in about a week develops, we are only behind 2005 and tied with 2013 for most pre-August storms of strictly tropical origin

[Hurricaneman]

Yes, at least one.

Maybe 2

[Shell Mound]

Yes, at least one.

Maybe 2

Number two is imminent at this point.

[EquusStorm]

If named before the 1st that's two July MDR storms, which only happened in 2005 (just barely and only if you count Dennis) 2013 and 2017 in the last 24 years, aaaand four named storms of tropical origin. Only 2005 had more.