EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

If it somehow does not attempt RI during its three full days within a favorable environment, I will completely lose faith in the EPac until September.

We have to understand with a weak La Nina possibly coming on, there will likely be no September for the EPAC this season.

That's a bit too far honestly. If anything the biggest hindrance will be the insane activity we will see in the Atlantic.

Well weak La Nina correlates with insane Atlantic activity. So they go hand in hand. The SST configuration and ENSO state remains close to 2016 so far. But I'm just not feeling it yet. Maybe if Cristina over does it I will believe again. But we need the EPAC to go off between now and early September for this to be a respectable season.

[Chris90]

If Cristina never manages to exceed 50kts and she just dies out I'm going to laugh, albeit a mirthless laugh.
The convection itself isn't bad, but the convective pattern is getting worse. The structure has seemed to really take a beating from that shear.
I'm gonna watch the next 12-18 hours though to see what happens before I let my doubts increase. She can still pull a surprise.

[aspen]

Is this thing still alive? It’s looking more like a precursor disturbance than an actual TC. Perhaps we could see the center reform further south if this is the case.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if 96E is messing with it...

[aspen]

I wonder if 96E is messing with it...

I would expect outflow from 96E to be the cause of this shear, but it’s in the wrong direction. Could it be influencing some of the wind directions in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, or is that impossible for such a disturbance?

[Chris90]

Looking at visible, I actually do think a center reformation is being attempted. To me, it looks like the old LLC might have swirled off towards the NNW and lost a lot of definition, while there might be a new LLC forming a bit farther to the west. I'm not sure that there actually is a well defined LLC at present though.

[storminabox]

This storm's inability to intensify among favorable conditions is annoying me way more than it should be...

[aspen]

I think I have an idea on what the problem could be: that blob of convection to the N/NE is imparting the shear onto Cristina, and it’s also attempting to broaden its circulation. The new center is trying to form in regards to both that northern blob and the mass of convection the CoC was previously within.

[Kingarabian]

I think I have an idea on what the problem could be: that blob of convection to the N/NE is imparting the shear onto Cristina, and it’s also attempting to broaden its circulation. The new center is trying to form in regards to both that northern blob and the mass of convection the CoC was previously within.

Yeah some previous GFS runs showed 3 vorts competing with each other including 96E, Cristinia and another one.

[aspen]

I think I have an idea on what the problem could be: that blob of convection to the N/NE is imparting the shear onto Cristina, and it’s also attempting to broaden its circulation. The new center is trying to form in regards to both that northern blob and the mass of convection the CoC was previously within.

Yeah some previous GFS runs showed 3 vorts competing with each other including 96E, Cristinia and another one.

If these vorts keep competing with each other and Cristina does not become the dominant one quickly, it may never reach hurricane status; it’ll be in too bad of a shape for way too long.

[Kingarabian]

I think I have an idea on what the problem could be: that blob of convection to the N/NE is imparting the shear onto Cristina, and it’s also attempting to broaden its circulation. The new center is trying to form in regards to both that northern blob and the mass of convection the CoC was previously within.

Yeah some previous GFS runs showed 3 vorts competing with each other including 96E, Cristinia and another one.

If these vorts keep competing with each other and Cristina does not become the dominant one quickly, it may never reach hurricane status; it’ll be in too bad of a shape for way too long.

2020 may be the year of the "Vort's" at this rate. Seen it in the Atlantic and now in the EPAC.

[aspen]

Cristina is starting to fire off some very deep convection. Maybe this will help solidify where the center will be, and have the main vort overshadow that of the NE convective mass.

[Yellow Evan]

It's pulsating now. A step in the right direction at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 080010
TCSENP

A. 05E (CRISTINA)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 13.5N

D. 104.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SHEAR WITH A LLCC LOCATED LESS
THAN .5 DEGREE FROM DG. DT=3.0 MET AND PT ARE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[cycloneye]

05E CRISTINA 200708 0000 13.5N 104.7W EPAC 40 1003

[Kingarabian]

New bursts of convection but they're all appearing with sharp edges indicating it's still being bothered by shear.

[cycloneye]

I am dissapointed about Cristina not performing as it was expected from the start when the models were very bullish. I was so optimistic that made a guess peak of 130 kts but even going up to hurricane is not a sure thing now. Let's see what the next 24 hours show but the best window to be a formidable hurricane is closing.

[Yellow Evan]

In the same position as this morning basically. Low level cloud lines indicative of shear and thus not a structure conducive for intensification.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/bYNcCAU.jpg

In the same position as this morning basically. Low level cloud lines indicative of shear and thus not a structure conducive for intensification.

This was supposed to be a favorable environment. What more does this pathetic storm want?

On the bright side, all of this new popping convection should force the CoC to tighten up there, and not try to expand.

[AnnularCane]

Man, you guys are harsh. I'm sure she's trying her best!