ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

The GFS, Euro, and CMC don’t move 98L off the coast until Thursday. The ICON, however, gets it over water around midday Wednesday and keeps it over or near the Gulf Stream for 36-48 hours. It’ll probably get over the GS no matter what, but the ICON gets it there quicker and as a better system. However, the CoC would have to reform closer to the convection for that to happen, probably.

HRRR has it moving off the coast late tonight/early am. Not sure if it will get it right, but it's done well so far.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFS, Euro, and CMC don’t move 98L off the coast until Thursday. The ICON, however, gets it over water around midday Wednesday and keeps it over or near the Gulf Stream for 36-48 hours. It’ll probably get over the GS no matter what, but the ICON gets it there quicker and as a better system. However, the CoC would have to reform closer to the convection for that to happen, probably.

HRRR has it moving off the coast late tonight/early am. Not sure if it will get it right, but it's done well so far.

I would say so.. it has been nailing these meso vorts developing.

[Aric Dunn]

HRRR says this next wave of energy/Convection swings ene and begins to take over in the next 10 hours as it starts out as a MESO vort and deepens. pulling and elonging the low over GA/SC then weakens it completely.

[weathaguyry]

I think it is very possible that most of the major models are underdoing this. The HRRR has been correct so far with the circulation already elongating towards the coast with the mesovorts running around. The GFS/Euro, etc. have this too far inland and are too slow to transfer the energy off the coast. I have a feeling Fay may be an overachiever, and that people in the Northeast may be caught off guard by this.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely looks like a slow eastward reformation to me. As potent as the center has been, not sure it stays the dominant one with the massive convective feed just offshore

[GCANE]

Bow maybe starting to develop

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is very possible that most of the major models are underdoing this. The HRRR has been correct so far with the circulation already elongating towards the coast with the mesovorts running around. The GFS/Euro, etc. have this too far inland and are too slow to transfer the energy off the coast. I have a feeling Fay may be an overachiever, and that people in the Northeast may be caught off guard by this.

Seems that way..


the Circ is really starting to elongate at the surface. bunch of calm wind obs in there and appears energy is transferring to east rather fast. more and more convection is building near shore and offshore.

path of least resistance

[Aric Dunn]

Pulled up the latest MESO Analysis as well.

very straight forward.. the global models appear way to slow with bringing this to the coast. One big convective burst offshore and it there wont be much left of the main circ that is inland.

[aspen]

So if I understand this right, the actual circulation is closer to the coast than anticipated, and the storm system coming up from Florida could produce enough convection to help move the CoC off of land entirely once it merges with 98L.

[BYG Jacob]

So if I understand this right, the actual circulation is closer to the coast than anticipated, and the storm system coming up from Florida could produce enough convection to help move the CoC off of land entirely once it merges with 98L.

Yes, that's really bad news for you. I would start prepping today or tomorrow

[Aric Dunn]

New HRRR has this reformed on the coast in 3 to 6 hours..

and if you look at radar and sat.. that might actually be what happens.

[weathaguyry]

Water temps are looking nice and toasty once the circulation gets offshore. 24C waters extend all the way to NYC and southern Long Island, so there’s no cold water to weaken this rapidly as it approaches the Northeast. I’m already starting to prepare for some nasty high tide cycles in the bays on Long Island on Friday/Saturday.

[aspen]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

Water temps are looking nice and toasty once the circulation gets offshore. 24C waters extend all the way to NYC and southern Long Island, so there’s no cold water to weaken this rapidly as it approaches the Northeast. I’m already starting to prepare for some nasty high tide cycles in the bays on Long Island on Friday/Saturday.

I’m mainly concerned about the large pool of 28-29 C SSTs in the Gulf Stream. 98L will emerge over it no matter what, and could sit on top of it for up to 48 hours. We could see it quickly spin up, and perhaps intensify more than the models have been showing, but that really depends on the size and structure of its circulation once it is full over water.

[CyclonicFury]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

Water temps are looking nice and toasty once the circulation gets offshore. 24C waters extend all the way to NYC and southern Long Island, so there’s no cold water to weaken this rapidly as it approaches the Northeast. I’m already starting to prepare for some nasty high tide cycles in the bays on Long Island on Friday/Saturday.

I’m mainly concerned about the large pool of 28-29 C SSTs in the Gulf Stream. 98L will emerge over it no matter what, and could sit on top of it for up to 48 hours. We could see it quickly spin up, and perhaps intensify more than the models have been showing, but that really depends on the size and structure of its circulation once it is full over water.

The exact location of where an LLC forms, and its size, will be important. Most of the global models, aside from the ICON and UKMET, have kept 98L weak, elongated and very close to the U.S. East Coast. SSTs off the coast of the Carolinas are very warm, though models are not in agreement of whether 98L will spend enough time over these waters to strengthen significantly.

I'd say there is a sizable chance that 98L could make landfall in New England, likely as a tropical storm.

[BYG Jacob]

Rather quiet thread for an east coast threat

[Aric Dunn]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

Water temps are looking nice and toasty once the circulation gets offshore. 24C waters extend all the way to NYC and southern Long Island, so there’s no cold water to weaken this rapidly as it approaches the Northeast. I’m already starting to prepare for some nasty high tide cycles in the bays on Long Island on Friday/Saturday.

I’m mainly concerned about the large pool of 28-29 C SSTs in the Gulf Stream. 98L will emerge over it no matter what, and could sit on top of it for up to 48 hours. We could see it quickly spin up, and perhaps intensify more than the models have been showing, but that really depends on the size and structure of its circulation once it is full over water.

The exact location of where an LLC forms, and its size, will be important. Most of the global models, aside from the ICON and UKMET, have kept 98L weak, elongated and very close to the U.S. East Coast. SSTs off the coast of the Carolinas are very warm, though models are not in agreement of whether 98L will spend enough time over these waters to strengthen significantly.

I'd say there is a sizable chance that 98L could make landfall in New England, likely as a tropical storm.

So far the UKMET has been right in line with the short HRRR motion and reformation..

[Aric Dunn]

Rather quiet thread for an east coast threat

everyone is hesitant these days.. no one believes anyone anymore. lol

once it hits the coast in a few hours it will light up in here fast..

[pgoss11]

Rather quiet thread for an east coast threat

The majority of people on this forum are not New Englanders. Unless this storm overperforms I doubt there will be much interest other than those in New England who rarely get to see tropical threats.

[Do_For_Love]

Well, it seems to me like it's probably going to develop once it gets off the coast from what I'm reading here. On the other hand, some of the models and the NHC are less bullish, so I'm just kind of seeing how it plays out. People seem pretty confident that it will head to New England, what are the reasons for that? Could it take another path if it does develop, especially considering the uncertainties about where the center will reform and all that?

[aspen]

I’m mainly concerned about the large pool of 28-29 C SSTs in the Gulf Stream. 98L will emerge over it no matter what, and could sit on top of it for up to 48 hours. We could see it quickly spin up, and perhaps intensify more than the models have been showing, but that really depends on the size and structure of its circulation once it is full over water.

The exact location of where an LLC forms, and its size, will be important. Most of the global models, aside from the ICON and UKMET, have kept 98L weak, elongated and very close to the U.S. East Coast. SSTs off the coast of the Carolinas are very warm, though models are not in agreement of whether 98L will spend enough time over these waters to strengthen significantly.

I'd say there is a sizable chance that 98L could make landfall in New England, likely as a tropical storm.

So far the UKMET has been right in line with the short HRRR motion and reformation..

What is the UKMET forecasting for maximum intensity and landfall?