ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Excellent warm-core structure

[GCANE]

No doubt that is a feeder band running along the east coast of FL.
It coming from a huge 5000 CAPE pool SW of Tampa.
It tops out at 6500 CAPE, the highest I have ever seen.

That would be an extraordinary tornado outbreak over land

Actually not seeing any helicity in the band.
Tornado chances are minimal.

[GCANE]

Global models don't initialize this for at least another 24 hrs and a minimal warm core at that.
All derived satellite products indicate this is already a healthy and symmetrical warm core.
I could say more, but I wont.

[aspen]

Global models don't initialize this for at least another 24 hrs and a minimal warm core at that.
All derived satellite products indicate this is already a healthy and symmetrical warm core.
I could say more, but I wont.

Perhaps this could be another system that catches the global models by surprise, but like I said before, the future of 98L really depends on how much of that well-defined warm core structure actually survives between now and when it exits the east coast.

[Ubuntwo]

Global models don't initialize this for at least another 24 hrs and a minimal warm core at that.
All derived satellite products indicate this is already a healthy and symmetrical warm core.
I could say more, but I wont.

Perhaps this could be another system that catches the global models by surprise, but like I said before, the future of 98L really depends on how much of that well-defined warm core structure actually survives between now and when it exits the east coast.

Considering its structure and position, mesoscale models are better to watch in the short term. The HRRR keeps the core intact to South Carolina at least. Healthy appearance there.

[OuterBanker]

I have rarely seen this much intensification this quick over the water much less land. I guess the daytime heating of the land and such high humidity are the culprit. It should die out after daytime heating.

[OuterBanker]

It looks like it is trying to fined its way to the water. More ene than ne looks around 60 degrees. May emerge in SC instead of NC.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like it is trying to fined its way to the water. More ene than ne looks around 60 degrees. May emerge in SC instead of NC.

Just keep watching if convection keeps building off the SE coast..

getting pulled or reformation offshore is quite possible.

[Steve]

I have rarely seen this much intensification this quick over the water much less land. I guess the daytime heating of the land and such high humidity are the culprit. It should die out after daytime heating.

That's been its history the last few days. It dies out a little earlier in the evening than a lot of storms typically do, and then it refires later and throughout the earlier part of the day. To be sure, it's strung out a lot and involved with weather currently in at least 10 stats from Texas and Oklahoma all the way to southern NC and eastern TN. MJO looks to be moving into Phase 2 (possibly deep into it) for about 4-7 days FWIW, so that's well within the timeframe before it could hit NY/CT/RI/MA or the maritimes.

[Steve]

Center of circulation looks to pass between Albany and Macon and is right at I-75.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... x&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

just a side note..

the Euro and GFS both had this heading to north GA before turning ese..

it does not look like it will eve get close to either of those short term tracks.

[GCANE]

Gulf Stream firing on all cylinders.
4500 CAPE Ridge has developed over it.

[aspen]

In the 18z ICON run, 98L emerges over water further south (around SC) and earlier (in 36-42 hours) than the rest of the global models. With that extra time over the Gulf Stream and extra distance from land, it peaks at 996 mbar before making landfall on Long Island on Saturday.

I know a lot of people really don’t trust the ICON model, but based on the last few runs and the current behavior of 98L, it seems to be the most accurate in the short-term with this system. We’ll have to wait and see if it does continue its generally ENE track, or if it stays inland for longer like the GFS/Euro predict. Either way, this is one I’ll be watching very closely, because I will be right in its path.

[Aric Dunn]

If we wake up and this is sitting over Vidalia to dublin.. chances greatly increase for either being pulled to convection that is present over the water or reforming offshore.

current motion is heading that direction..

[northjaxpro]

98L is located just about over Perry, GA, which is about 60 miles south of Macon. II appears to be moving E/NE and it will traverse across Central Georgia during the overnight.

98L looks to reach the coast somwhere from Myrtle Beach and points northward by late Tuesday at the earliest.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area centered inland over southern Georgia is
forecast to move northeastward near the coast of the Carolinas and
the mid-Atlantic during the next few days. Some development of this
system is possible if the system moves over water in two or three
days. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce
locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across
portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

98L is located just about over Perry, GA, which is about 60 miles south of Macon. II appears to be moving E/NE and it will traverse across Central Georgia during the overnight.

98L looks to reach the coast somwhere from Myrtle Beach and points northward by late Tuesday at the earliest.

also a note... the models have been showing quite a shallow vorticity not reaching all that high..

and clearly that is not the case. the 500mb level steering is more east to ene and faster.

if convection continues like this. seeing this reach the coast sooner is also quite possible.

this of course baring any additional tugging or reformations.

[northjaxpro]

98L is located just about over Perry, GA, which is about 60 miles south of Macon. II appears to be moving E/NE and it will traverse across Central Georgia during the overnight.

98L looks to reach the coast somwhere from Myrtle Beach and points northward by late Tuesday at the earliest.

also a note... the models have been showing quite a shallow vorticity not reaching all that high..

and clearly that is not the case. the 500mb level steering is more east to ene and faster.

if convection continues like this. seeing this reach the coast sooner is also quite possible.

this of course baring any additional tugging or reformations.

Yeah it is possible 98L could get pulled closer to the coast quicker. We will await to see if convction starts building off shore the GA/SC coast during the overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

98L is located just about over Perry, GA, which is about 60 miles south of Macon. II appears to be moving E/NE and it will traverse across Central Georgia during the overnight.

98L looks to reach the coast somwhere from Myrtle Beach and points northward by late Tuesday at the earliest.

also a note... the models have been showing quite a shallow vorticity not reaching all that high..

and clearly that is not the case. the 500mb level steering is more east to ene and faster.

if convection continues like this. seeing this reach the coast sooner is also quite possible.

this of course baring any additional tugging or reformations.

Yeah it is possible 98L could get pulled closer to the coast quicker. We will await to see if convction starts building off shore the GA/SC coast during the overnight.

just an FYI..

latest HRRR

18 hours from now. moves the 850mb and up vorticity.. pretty much straight east and has it almost to the coast. would not take much to get a reformation.

[EquusStorm]

Big convective blowup tonight near the center. Lots of lightning. And just eyeballing it, it looks almost like there is a very marked ENE shift of the whole system already. If that continues, this will rapidly get interesting

Still cant believe we're talking about a storm moving across Georgia nowhere near water