Tropical Wave in the central Caribbean

[drezee]

it is starting to have nice convergence an low level turning. EURO shows some vorticity heading toward the islands tomorrow.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1279904934658482181

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the
Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible
on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for
development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall
as well as gusty winds on some of those islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Hammy]

Waves this year have been fairly strong despite the dust.

[floridasun78]

look like will run into south America it low latitude enter leeward islands unless gain latitude

[floridasun78]

ok nhc think will move wnw into leeward islands

[abajan]

ok nhc think will move wnw into leeward islands

Those are actually the Windward Islands, not the Leewards.

[toad strangler]

ok nhc think will move wnw into leeward islands

Those are actually the Windward Islands, not the Leewards.

Or all are part of the Lesser Antilles .... right?

[abajan]

ok nhc think will move wnw into leeward islands

Those are actually the Windward Islands, not the Leewards.

Or all are part of the Lesser Antilles .... right?

Correct. But it can get confusing because there's also the Leeward Antilles which aren't the same as the Leeward Islands. Then there's the Dominican Republic and Dominica - two distinctly different countries, both in the Caribbean. But people from both are called Dominicans.

[drezee]

Nice burst of convection around 10N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, that's some serious convection.

[cycloneye]

[abajan]

They may up the formation chances at 8:00 AM:

[Kingarabian]

Looks impressive.

[cycloneye]

Closer view looks even more impressive.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
Some slight development of this system is possible today before
environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday.
The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday
and could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of
those islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[drezee]

Looks much better today

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1280111135002374147

[northjaxpro]

I think it is time for NHC to tag this the next invest. Surprised this was not done last night.

It is looking very robust this morning and it looks primed to develop before reachng the Carbbean.
.
Beyond 48 hours from now, shear become hostile. We will see how this fares later this week.

[AutoPenalti]

Do any models even develop this past 24 hours?

[Shell Mound]

Honestly, I think this could certainly become low-end Tropical Storm Fay within the next twenty-four to thirty-six hours. The vorticity maximum is sufficiently embedded in the ITCZ and is an environment with enhanced low-level convergence. The “feathery” southern quadrant indicates good difluence with height. Additionally, the system is relatively compact, so we could see a quick “spin-up” before the system leaves the ITCZ and encounters the TUTT. The main inhibiting factor is easterly mid-level shear, which is climatologically strong near the islands in July, along with stable air mass lurking to the system’s immediate north. Nevertheless, the system has about a day and a half of relatively conducive conditions before it encounters a hostile environment.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1280117343935488001