Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[Aric Dunn]

outflow on the east, massive outflow boundary blasting northeast of the system...but that looks to be somewhat offset by evident inflow from the south and southwest and some banding features along with convective persistence. Certainly worth monitoring. If the convection can continue to pulse we might get a little something..

This happens alot. I bet this eventually turns into a feeder band.

if you notice the outflow spit out as it rounded the se side of the circ.. this actually helped increase the southerly flow on the east side of the circ and almost immediately convection and banding started to develop on the west side.

that boundry will almost certianly get pulled back in and be a inflow channel.

[MGC]

Not untypical for outflow boundaries to occur when tropical systems are just starting to form. The disturbance is looking better as the day progresses......MGC

[robbielyn]

It's so tiny.

[Steve]

It's so tiny.

What year was it that we had like three of those? When you get old, most seasons blend into each other, but that had to be 16, 17 or 18.

[Javlin]

It's so tiny.

What year was it that we had like three of those? When you get old, most seasons blend into each other, but that had to be 16, 17 or 18.

I can think of one Steve Nate 2017 blew thru before you ever knew it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

1. Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low
pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure
near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers
near its center, and some slight development is possible before it
moves inland early Monday. The broader low pressure system is
forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the
Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[TheAustinMan]

Data from the ASCAT-B instrument suggest that the winds associated with the small disturbance are close to pinching off a closed circulation separate from the broader cyclonic flow occurring off the Mississippi Coast. Peak winds are currently 20-25 kt.

420 KB. Source: KNMI

[Aric Dunn]

Data from the ASCAT-B instrument suggest that the winds associated with the small disturbance are close to pinching off a closed circulation separate from the broader cyclonic flow occurring off the Mississippi Coast. Peak winds are currently 20-25 kt.

420 KB. Source: KNMI
https://i.imgur.com/GcsSQpO.png

It very likely is. ASCAT has a pretty rough time with these types of small systems.

[Aric Dunn]

So far the Euro is the only model that even initialized it all.

not even any of the mesoscale models show it ..

[ouragans]

I don't remember the NHC going from 20% to TC, straight... I'm dying to see that once, without any STWO

[weathaguyry]

I’m nervous about this here on Long Island, if the storm gets over the Gulf Stream and continues north along the East Coast, it will eventually crash into the NE. We get widespread coastal flooding here from a normal full moon, so any tropical mischief coming to the area would not be good.

[BigB0882]

I don't remember the NHC going from 20% to TC, straight... I'm dying to see that once, without any STWO

I remember Humberto in 2007 forming out of no where and going crazy right before landfall. Not sure if they had the percentages back then. If not, it may have been a candidate.

[tropicwatch]

Would think it would get an invest number pretty soon.

[Aric Dunn]

i mean there are westard moving low level clouds on the north side now.

between the center and the boundary with the other low over alabama.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like we have Edouard.

[Aric Dunn]

There is also now a donut showing up on radar.

albeit looking fairly high up.. but since it is co located with the LLC I would say we are very close to a depression.

[cycloneye]

Invest 98L is up