Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS has a transitioning (S)TC striking Long Island, h150. Huh.

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z ECM does attempt to close off a low south of the Alabama coast tomorrow but runs out of time to do much before moving ashore.

[Aric Dunn]

Moring visible looks like a small but closed circ south of the mouth of the Mississippi r8river. Need some more images

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Five, located just north of Bermuda.

A broad area of low pressure located along the northern Gulf Coast
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some
slight development of this system is possible before the disturbance
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The
system is then forecast to move northeastward and could emerge
offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental
conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Aric Dunn]

Sure looks closed. Convection building around it.

Small little bugger.

Looks like.someone is going to get a whirl wind later today/tonight lol

[Aric Dunn]

That is the most hilariously awesome little llc .. lol

One large hot tower building with it.

Scramble recon.. lol

[northjaxpro]

That is the most hilariously awesome little llc .. lol

One large hot tower building with it.

Scramble recon.. lol

Well, this is very similar to how TD 5 evolved. A very small vigorous vort.

[Aric Dunn]

That is the most hilariously awesome little llc .. lol

One large hot tower building with it.

Scramble recon.. lol

Well, this is very similar to how TD 5 evolved. A very small vigorous vort.

I sure hope the convection continues..

Because this little guy will become my new favorite.. lol

I might have to make the 5 hour drive to go see it come ashore
..

[northjaxpro]

This vort due south of the Mississippi River Delta early this morning has about a 24 hour window to possibly do just what TD 5 did, and get classified .

I think if convection keeps persisting, it may achieve classification before moving on shore of the Florida Panhandle area tomorrow morning.

[Nimbus]

Just the single hot tower, but the moisture levels are better along the future track NE.

[Aric Dunn]

watching KDSF to switch to a East or NE wind. assuming it moves right over it.

[northjaxpro]

The piece of energy moving currently off the Central Louisiana Coast is a key element for today. It is diving to the southeast, and this could provide our little vigorous vort south of the MS River Delta.the "boost" needed to develop later today into tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

The piece of energy moving currently off the Central Louisiana Coast is a key element for today. It is diving to the southeast, and this could provide our little vigorous vort south of the MS River Delta.the "boost" needed to develop later today into tonight.

it wont take long for this to start pulling in the energy from that complex. the cloudlines between the two are already forming.

pressures with this little guy might be falling... one decent burst of convection and this would likely start really taking off.

[MGC]

Nice little low in the GOM this morning. Convection looks to be increasing too. Have to see if it all holds together today. I'd say the odds of TC formation are increasing.....MGC

[ScottNAtlanta]

The 00z ECM does attempt to close off a low south of the Alabama coast tomorrow but runs out of time to do much before moving ashore.

Damn it...where's my sharpie

[Dean4Storms]

Good rotation on long range radar, it's got a shot in my opinion.

[Ivanhater]

Feeling very tropical in Pensacola today

Hope everyone had a great 4th of July

[Aric Dunn]

Good rotation on long range radar, it's got a shot in my opinion.

yep.. been watching that one hot tower rotate nearly all the way around. that will be the seed once it makes it back to the SW quad. currently in NW quad.

[cycloneye]

No recon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT SUN 05 JULY 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Are you guys looking at the one south of the MS Delta or the one on the Panhandle Coast?