ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

No watches or warnings? This must be a really small storm.

Bermuda isn’t even in the cone, but yeah the storm is very compact/small in size.

[aspen]

TD5 really needs to have some better convection flare-ups if it ever wants to get named. So far, it’s not much.

[plasticup]

No watches or warnings? This must be a really small storm.

Bermuda isn’t even in the cone, but yeah the storm is very compact/small in size.

Yes it is:

Unless you are looking at one of the graphics that shows only the center position? In which case I encourage you to read the sticky and know the cone

[Ubuntwo]

TD5 really needs to have some better convection flare-ups if it ever wants to get named. So far, it’s not much.

As per the NHC there's a reasonable chance of dissipation followed by reformation before transition. This is the solution favored by the euro/EPS. As it reforms baroclinic influences will allow for further intensification.

[mitchell]

Bermuda is no longer in the cone, if it was earlier.

[wxman57]

First of all, the "cone" is meaningless as far as any potential impact of a TC, particularly when a location is near the track, as Bermuda is. A TC's effects may extend WAY outside the cone. The cone isn't really good for anything as far as potential impacts or track uncertainty.

Second, it sure looks like this weak TD will dissipate within 24 hours and merge with a larger non-tropical low to the north. I don't know why the NHC would call it the same system, if that happens, even though they mentioned it in their discussion. There's really no point to keeping it around.

[Hurricane Jed]

A true masterpiece.

[plasticup]

Poofed to nothing on IR. Very little to see on radar either. Season cancelled!

[floridasun78]

Poofed to nothing on IR. Very little to see on radar either. Season cancelled!

season cancel in july?

[AnnularCane]

Poofed to nothing on IR. Very little to see on radar either. Season cancelled!

season cancel in july?

He's probably joking.

Looking less likely that this will do anything, but after Dolly I'm not saying that for sure.

[GeneratorPower]

Poofed to nothing on IR. Very little to see on radar either. Season cancelled!

Yep that’s the end of 2020

God bless America!!

[Ubuntwo]

Structure slowly improving

[Kingarabian]

Nice blowup of convention ENE of the Coc.

[Ubuntwo]

Looking pretty good

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/729229067760697354/2020-07-05-0650_SAT004.png[url]
Looking pretty good

We should have Edouard in 2 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

[url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/729229067760697354/2020-07-05-0650_SAT004.png[url]
Looking pretty good

We should have Edouard in 2 hours.

Indeed seems that way. 23G28kt was reported on Bermuda, 60 miles from the center of an already tiny system. Not too outrageous to claim that there's TS force winds in there.

[Ubuntwo]

27G36kt! Pretty amazing

[Ubuntwo]

Pretty good evidence for a TS right now. 32kt recorded 55 miles from the center, raw T values up to 3.5, continuously improving outflow, CDO, and banding.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

In the past 5 hours, 05L has gone from a convection-less system on the verge of becoming an open circulation to one that appears to be a quickly strengthening tropical cyclone. Quite impressive.

Highest sustained winds on the buoy north of Bermuda is 32 knots, with a sustained maximum gust of 40 knots on the island itself and 39 knots at the buoy.

[Kingarabian]

Remains a TD.

370
WTNT45 KNHC 050836
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020
500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

Convection has increased in association with Tropical Depression
Five during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing
cooling cloud tops near the center and data from the radar on
Bermuda indicating some banding. An earlier scatterometer
overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center, and
so far sustained winds at the various automated stations on Bermuda
have been in the 20-30 kt range. Based on this, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 055/17. The cyclone
should accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast over the next
couple of days as it encounters the stronger mid-latitude
westerlies. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although
the guidance has trended faster for this advisory. Based on this,
the new forecast track is similar in direction, but faster than,
the previous forecast.

Some strengthening could occur today, and the forecast peak
intensity of 35 kt is a little below the intensity consensus. The
guidance now suggests that extratropical transition should occur by
36 h, and the the forecast has been adjusted to reflect that. It
remains possible that the depression will open up into a trough
later today, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with
the previous one in maintaining the system as a cyclone.

Locally heavy rain and gusty winds should persist on Bermuda for
the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 33.3N 64.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 41.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 44.4N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven