Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[tailgater]

Looking at the latest vis loops the Vort south of Morgan City might be weakening while the one south the flobama line is intensifying with gravity waves showing up. Might not not have enuf time over water to get classified though. Maybe just beneficial rains. Fingers crossed

[Dean4Storms]

That Vort south of LA appears to be trying to organize, if the convection builds and deepens over it then it might have a shot IMO if it stays over the water long enough. Something to eyeball for sure overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

COnvection just started poping right under the MLC with the western vort..

thats what is needed.. lets see if it expands.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the latest vis loops the Vort south of Morgan City might be weakening while the one south the flobama line is intensifying with gravity waves showing up. Might not not have enuf time over water to get classified though. Maybe just beneficial rains. Fingers crossed

Yeah, the past 4-6 hours I have noticed that the area in Apalachee Bay has become better organized than the vort south of the Louisiana coast. I agree with you Taigater

The vorticity in Apalachee Bay just does not have time on its side to really spin up and get classified. It will though bring some very heavy rainfall potential to the Big Bend region of North Florida as the vorticity traverses inland the rest of this holiday weekend

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the latest vis loops the Vort south of Morgan City might be weakening while the one south the flobama line is intensifying with gravity waves showing up. Might not not have enuf time over water to get classified though. Maybe just beneficial rains. Fingers crossed

I see new convection popping as I type moving in toward an overall center with that convection south of LA. If that goes on to build and deepen it is likely to become the bigger player, it's already with good rotation.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

The most recent Euro run (12z) pins the western circulation as a tight, 1006mb cyclone at 48 hours.

Other models show a little less development but also (like the Euro) bring it ashore near Pensacola in about 2 days.

We may end up seeing a brief homegrown system that may continue to drench the southeast in the coming days.

[GCANE]

Popups over a good portion of lower MS firing off now.
Massive outflow boundary from the shore convection along Big Bend with associated convection and lightning.
Great looking mid-level vort on the western system.
UL Jet over the western system seems to be abating somewhat.
ULL over the MS Delta is inhibiting outflow somewhat for the eastern system.

[northjaxpro]

That Vort south of LA appears to be trying to organize, if the convection builds and deepens over it then it might have a shot IMO if it stays over the water long enough. Something to eyeball for sure overnight.

I agree if convection can get going. It looks like half a system, with convection mainly on the south and southwest side of the vort. It looks as if dry air has slithered in.on the north side of that particular vorticity, which is inhibiting more convection to fire there currently. Let's see if it can change this dynamic late this afternoon into this evening.

[Nimbus]

I'd be betting on the western most area of low pressure at the surface over night.
See the dry air from eastern Texas inhibiting and gulf surface pressures haven't dropped that much yet.
Will be slow to develop but the western portion has more time over water.

[Steve]

Do we see any of this convection making it on shore for the 4th of July fireworks around New Orleans this evening?

Hard to say. Onshore rain weakened last night but there are storms rotating in from the NE and N with some probably due in the next hour. More rain right now is toward the MGC.

[tailgater]

I’m looking at the Visible loop over northern GOM and noticing that the larger low level circ Is centered near the coast at Fla. Alabama state line with most of the T-storms rotating around it. The area just south of that continues pump out T-storms with some short lived hot towers, doesn’t seem to be moving much at all.

[psyclone]

There's not much happening through this whole zone at present. everything is transient and goes poof. Nice robust onshore flow here in west central florida with quick passing showers moving northeastward.

[robbielyn]

Most Mets saying this will get going once on East Coast heading towards carolinas won't get it's act together in the gulf probably.

[GCANE]

Heavy convection over lower MS is helping to take out the ULL over the MS Delta.
IMHO, chances increasing that the eastern vort may develop overnight.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures are plummeting further west near Calcasieu Pass, LA and there is some convection out in the gulf south of LA that so far has been inhibited by the dry air. If that area moistens a little overnight we may have a low level center or at least a convective burst visible tomorrow morning.

[robbielyn]

Heavy convection over lower MS is helping to take out the ULL over the MS Delta.
IMHO, chances increasing that the eastern vort may develop overnight.

Derek Ortt mention Euro going with Western Vort but doesn't develop til offshore the Carolina. Interesting to see what transpires.

[Ubuntwo]

10/20

[wxman57]

I don't see anything developing in the Gulf over the next 3-4 days. Maybe, if it moves off the East Coast next week, like Five.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some
slight development of this system is possible before the trough
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The
system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore
of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[psyclone]

A stretched low grade lemon makes sense.