Interesting ... something might-be a brewing... Guess where?

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Oct 27, 2003 9:11 pm

SURPRISE!! ... THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ...

The GFS offers a solution that the current (sub) low pressure system (not Nicholas) west of Nicholas may continue barreling back westward and end up off of South Carolina in the MR ...

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_pres_loop.gif

The 12z GFS run depiction from PSU indicates something brewing in the Caribbean and maybe in the Central Atlantic ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

Meanwhile at 950mb Vorticity indicates a LOT of small vort maxes littered all over the place.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The Canadian doesn't support most of this scenario except one glaring exception ... The Central Atlantic ....

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The scenario IMO, makes sense.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The GFDL is interesting with Nicholas and later in the period ... The Central ATLANTIC! ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

950mb Vorticity
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

The NOGAPS ... Central Atlantic ....

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

And FINALLY ... the ECMWF! ... Day 5 --- CENTRAL ATLANTIC!!!!!!! ---

Day 5 EURO
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 6 EURO
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 6 EURO 850mb Wind Speeds - indicates 41 kt winds at its maxima.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 7 EURO
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

IMHO, forget the Caribbean for the time being ... keep the eyes out towardds the CENTRAL ATLANTIC for the next 5 days. It might be a brief (maybe a 48 hour period of a tropical entity before weakening afterward, but hey, it's possibly something to watch.)

SF

*StOrmsPr* · #2 Postby ***StOrmsPr*** » Mon Oct 27, 2003 9:21 pm

oh my oh my!! LOL what a season!!

i think it will be cool to watch something in the central atl so late in the season! but just like i said before climatology is on vacation this year!

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Oct 27, 2003 9:31 pm

And the 18Z GFS develops something in the NW Caribbean next week and slams it into the mid LA coast:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324m.gif

Of course, the GFS has never been wrong at 324 hours.....

rainstorm · #4 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Oct 27, 2003 9:34 pm

WATCH NICK!! he is not done

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 27, 2003 9:38 pm

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

And UKMET develops a CAPE VERDE STORM another surprise and that low pressure north of Puerto Rico.But that area in the CV it moves NW to NNW and the central atlantic moves west.

#6 Postby **Steve** » Tue Oct 28, 2003 2:57 pm

lol 57. That's some funny stuff. Just the same, we're about to go into the 15 day SOI lag period where the index has been negative since the 18th of October. While that's usually an indicator in late October/early November that no serious artic air can get into the SE US, one wonders what's in the offing if anything tropical can pop up in the meantime. At this point, I don't see many source regions except the EPAC.

In any event, we're supposed to return to the mid 80's by Thursday and stay that way for a while. No one will be hearing any complaints from me. Here's the SOI since it went -.

18-Oct-2003 1014.25 1011.50 -0.90 -3.03 -0.63
19-Oct-2003 1014.29 1011.45 -0.30 -2.98 -0.80
20-Oct-2003 1012.30 1011.55 -13.80 -3.03 -1.04
21-Oct-2003 1009.70 1011.40 -29.60 -3.37 -1.30
22-Oct-2003 1010.48 1011.15 -22.90 -3.84 -1.56
23-Oct-2003 1010.90 1011.15 -20.20 -4.34 -1.86
24-Oct-2003 1011.83 1011.25 -14.90 -4.79 -2.11
25-Oct-2003 1011.59 1010.20 -9.60 -5.01 -2.22
26-Oct-2003 1011.45 1010.65 -13.40 -5.38 -2.30
27-Oct-2003 1013.06 1010.95 -5.00 -5.29 -2.31
28-Oct-2003 1013.43 1012.20 -10.70 -5.20 -2.42

Steve

JCT777 · #7 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 9:37 am

Larry Cosgrove has been saying for several days that the Nicholas remnants could very possibly intensify while moving towards the Bahamas and Florida. So that is definitely something to watch!

Josephine96 · #8 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 10:31 am

Hmm.. If Nicholas' remnants organize. Could give us Floridians a late season problem here lol.. That would be very interesting considering it's almost November..

stormchazer · #9 Postby **stormchazer** » Wed Oct 29, 2003 11:41 am

Josephine96 wrote:Hmm.. If Nicholas' remnants organize. Could give us Floridians a late season problem here lol.. That would be very interesting considering it's almost November..

The remants are less then impressive right now and a lot of things will have to go right for it to develop. I agree that it is an interesting scenario.

Interesting ... something might-be a brewing... Guess where?

Interesting ... something might-be a brewing... Guess where?

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