Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[GCANE]

Also in combination with a cutoff Mid-Level Low developing over the AL/GA/FL tristate area as a Upper-Level Low over New England moves OTS.
The cutoff low anchors in over the weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

The mid level vorticity from the MCV last night is offshore alabama. convection firing..

should at least make for some good mesoscale features to watch today as the "tear drops " of energy break off from the trough.. anyone of these convective clusters runs the chance of trying to develop.

models are going to struggle with this entire setup..

[GCANE]

About 4" of rain for Big Bend coast

[GCANE]

00Z Euro 192 hrs out.
Outer Banks in the cross hairs.

[GCANE]

72 hrs out
Euro has the low over New Orleans, GFS a bit further NE.

[GCANE]

06Z NAM puts it in the water 51 hrs out.

[GCANE]

Three towers currently in the N GOM kicking out insane outflow boundaries.

[aspen]

12z GFS is really struggling to develop this. It has the precursor system and the vorticity, but it doesn’t seem certain on exactly where it’ll try coming together. First it seemed like there was something attempting to form in the NE Gulf in a few days, but then it vanished, and attempts to reform around the GA/SC/NC coast by 192 hours out.

[northjaxpro]

FWIW , 12Z Canadian develops a potential Tropical Depression, 1010mb in Apalachee Bay, coming ashore at Taylor County in the Big Bend area.by 12Z Sunday. The 12Z ICON lags development near Apalachicola at 1010 mb, and coming onshore there by 06Z Monday morning.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Tidbits has a floater covering a large area from the NGOM to the east coast of U.S.

[tropicwatch]

Wasn't expecting to see anything like this until tomorrow but vorticity is picking up in the panhandle close to the surface.

[GCANE]

Wasn't expecting to see anything like this until tomorrow but vorticity is picking up in the panhandle close to the surface.

http://tropicwatch.info/vorticity070220201000.jpg

The eastern of the three towers, that fired off a couple hours ago, kicked off a nice swirl right where the 850mb vort is.

[Nimbus]

More energy blasting down the Mississippi valley south out into the gulf tonight.
Looks as though they are thinking any low level circulation will be pulled inland over Florida before it becomes invest worthy.
Of course that is what I said about delaying 96L and the NHC pulled the trigger.

[cycloneye]

MCV#1 off Carolinas coast.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1278805436624367621

[aspen]

MCV#1 off Carolinas coast.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1278805436624367621

I’m losing confidence that this will develop. The GFS, which has been the main model supporting development, has been slowly transitioning to an elongated, non-tropical system like the Euro and CMC.

[TheStormExpert]

MCV#1 off Carolinas coast.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1278805436624367621

I’m losing confidence that this will develop. The GFS, which has been the main model supporting development, has been slowly transitioning to an elongated, non-tropical system like the Euro and CMC.

I lost confidence several days ago. Either way it’ll be a washout of a 4th of July weekend in the Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, and surrounding areas along the NE Gulf Coast.

[northjaxpro]

Saturday will be the crucial tell all day sbout any TC potential in Apalachee Bay.

The next area of vorticity currently traversing through the Lower Mississppi River Valley will reach the MS/ AL coast region by tommorow morning.

The next in a series of vortices, currently moving out of the Southern Plains region, ia traversing rapidly S/SE, and that will emerge.near Louisana/MS coast by Saturday.morning. We will see a pretty good convective complex develop in the Northeast GOM/ Apalachee Bay region this weekend as the broad area of bundled energy tries to coalesce into a dominant Low Pressure area there.

THE single most critical element will be how far away from the coast into Apalachee Bay can either of these vortices can traverse down to find just enough time and very warm sea surface temps to attempt to organize in a very short window. I think the window of development in Apalachee Bay will be from 12Z Saturday - 18Z Sunday. This would give only about 24-30 hours best in my analysis to try to develop in this particular reguon before it moves onshore the Big Bend of Florida late Sunday afternoon/early evening.

So time is not on its side, but this time of year, under the right circumstances, 30 hours is enough time for a vort to find a sweet spot of light shear and very warm ssts to spin up quickly.

This makes for interesting monitoring of the synoptic details this weekend that is for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

More energy blasting down the Mississippi valley south out into the gulf tonight.
Looks as though they are thinking any low level circulation will be pulled inland over Florida before it becomes invest worthy.
Of course that is what I said about delaying 96L and the NHC pulled the trigger.

Yeah next tear drop is going to slide south offshore over night.. keep an eye out for any of these to pinch off.

first one couldnt sustain convection long enough.

[Ubuntwo]

Vorticity and convection on the first MCV is increasing, though there's little model support for development except for the EPS.

[GCANE]

Big 5000 CAPE ridge extends from the GOM along the TX/LA Border to the OK/AR border.
Appears the strong MCV in northern AR will track down that ridge possibly into the GOM.