2020 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Still waiting for the EPAC to do a thing...

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system
will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has this hanging around for 10 days after it develops. ACE potential on this one looks pretty good.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:

18z GFS has this hanging around for 10 days after it develops. ACE potential on this one looks pretty good.

You did not see my post before the TWO came out.

#360 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:21 pm

Looks like the 0/30 will be the big one that may produce a good deal of ACE.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

18z GFS has this hanging around for 10 days after it develops. ACE potential on this one looks pretty good.

You did not see my post before the TWO came out.

#360 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:21 pm

Looks like the 0/30 will be the big one that may produce a good deal of ACE.

Agreed

[aspen]

06z GFS has gotten far less aggressive on every single disturbance. It doesn’t even show the 0/30 system becoming significant anymore, and 93E is weaker, even though it wants it to have formed by now.

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by late this week. Gradual development of this system
will be possible over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[aspen]

12z Euro shows more substance to TD3, the 0/30 disturbance, and the system behind it that the GFS was originally super aggressive about.

[aspen]

Remember when there was actually a decent chance of four named storms forming within the next 7 days or so?

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec this weekend or early next week. Gradual development
of this system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Still waiting for the EPAC to do a thing...

Boris is up but still prevails what you said.

[cycloneye]

2. A large area of disturbed weather is located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[storminabox]

What a pathetic season. Boris is all we're going to get from the CCKW that is passing through, which in a normal season, would spawn at least 2-3 storms. Looks like all the support will be in the Atlantic this year, which is no surprise considering the impending La Nina.

[Yellow Evan]

The biggest problem isn't explicitly La Nina. The present SST configuration is quite conducive to development and wind shear is below normal. The problem seems to be vertical instability, which usually increases over the course of the season even if it remains below normal.

[cycloneye]

Four areas of interest that were in the past few days there is only one now.

Another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[aspen]

Four areas of interest that were in the past few days there is only one now.

Another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An absolutely pathetic performance by the EPac. Four areas of interest with a CCKW coming in, and it was barely able to develop ONE.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah the East Pacific is underperforming BIG TIME (again)! Definitely slightly more so than last season in which we would have already seen our first hurricane on June 28th while this year there are no signs of that in the near future.

[Yellow Evan]

The only model that develops anything from the 20/40 is the parallel GFS. Speaks volumes for both the parallel GFS and the basin.

[cycloneye]

As eluded before,dead EPAC means Atlantic alive and active for ASO.

[TheStormExpert]

As eluded before,dead EPAC means Atlantic alive and active for ASO.

I’m sure the Atlantic will thrive, but how much will be determined on how quickly SST’s can rebound in the Tropical Atlantic. SAL is starting to erode the +AMO look.