2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ivanhater]

06z gfs continues the theme of a tropical storm in the gulf 4th of July weekend

[N2FSU]

06z GFS



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[Extratropical94]

GFS also keeps the low fairly intact across Georgia and the Carolinas and reintensifies it after re-emerging into the Atlantic.

[GeneratorPower]

Dennis 2005 repeat?

[aspen]

Dennis 2005 repeat?

How about no, please.

Also, if SAL is still stuck in the Gulf by early July, I high doubt we’d get anything significant out of such a storm. It probably won’t end up as anything more than a Cat 1 regardless, and it could easily disappear from the models being so far out.

[TheStormExpert]

Dennis 2005 repeat?

NO!

[TheStormExpert]

Probably the only place to look for Atlantic development during the month of July is the far Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche, or Subtropical Atlantic. The Tropical Atlantic and most of the Caribbean is shutdown until further notice thanks to Uncle SAL!

[toad strangler]

Probably the only place to look for Atlantic development during the month of July is the far Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche, or Subtropical Atlantic. The Tropical Atlantic and most of the Caribbean is shutdown until further notice thanks to Uncle SAL!

[Stangfriik]

GFS also keeps the low fairly intact across Georgia and the Carolinas and reintensifies it after re-emerging into the Atlantic.

I sincerely hope this doesn't verify because we will be camping in NC during that time

[BYG Jacob]

Probably the only place to look for Atlantic development during the month of July is the far Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Bay of Campeche, or Subtropical Atlantic. The Tropical Atlantic and most of the Caribbean is shutdown until further notice thanks to Uncle SAL!

http://i.ibb.co/tZGrQ1Y/july.gif

Such brave predictions

[Ivanhater]

From what I can see, the gfs may be latching onto the wave near Africa as the catalyst for development in the western Caribbean. It also looks like the Canadian may be latching onto this wave as well.



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[cycloneye]

From what I can see, the gfs may be latching onto the wave near Africa as the catalyst for development in the western Caribbean. It also looks like the Canadian may be latching onto this wave as well.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200624/57aedd28b9addbef65c8d1d5d9f3156a.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200624/eee14668e5b98b870374f7f6a627c771.jpg

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There it is on closeup. It has to battle the sal to it's north.

[BadLarry95]

Dennis 2005 repeat?

It looks more like a Cindy repeat. Even the dates match up

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS continues with a TS in the eastern GOM




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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1275842117403914250

[GCANE]

12Z GFS runs it thru the middle of the Yucatan channel Saturday the 4th.
GOM Fireworks.

[SFLcane]

Could be the good old GFS magic (bias) . Euro has nothing

[CyclonicFury]

Could be the good old GFS magic (bias) . Euro has nothing

If the GFS was right we would have had several major hurricanes in the NW Caribbean the past few years when in reality there haven't been any. I just can't trust a GFS NW Caribbean signal if other models aren't on board at all.

[Ivanhater]

Could be the gfs up to its old tricks but remember; Euro was not showing Cristobal, even when it was within range. The gfs has been consistent....

[toad strangler]

Could be the gfs up to its old tricks but remember; Euro was not showing Cristobal, even when it was within range. The gfs has been consistent....

Euro amnesia. Euro was awful with Cristobal initially.