Northwest GOM Disturbance

[GCANE]

CAPE in the GOM has surged dramatically in the past few days.
Seeing areas of 5000 CAPE with an associated surge in higher TPW air.
Light surface winds with pockets of convergence and also light upper-level winds with areas of divergence.
Surface pressures are a bit high to support any quick development but seeing some strong MCS's fire from the MS delta to FL panhandle.
No model support yet, but its that time of year.

[GCANE]

MCV south of the delta with tons of lightning.
Looks like its pushing out shear.
Seeing a small 700mb vort developing.

[SoupBone]

I was going to ask specifically where you were referring. I have several family members in SE Louisiana that said today's weather was very tropical in feeling.

[GCANE]

I was going to ask specifically where you were referring. I have several family members in SE Louisiana that said today's weather was very tropical in feeling.

Very high CAPE air hitting the coast and converging.
Big convection firing off there now.
I hope all is well with them.

[GCANE]

One station reporting 35 knt winds from WNW

[Steve]

Thanks G. Also, hey soupbone.

We had some decent showers move through this morning over a couple of hours, but it looked like they got a lot more down in Houma and Morgan City. What was really cool (and scared the **** out of me) was a shockwave hit of thunder we had today which made the news.
https://www.wwltv.com/article/weather/s ... 81eed3e916

It was pretty juiced up this morning, but it looks milked over/stabilized in the midlevel clouds right now. Doesn't look like anything at the surface just a broad low and a lot of flow in front of a slow moving cold front. There's a tropical wave just off the western tip of cuba and then there is the leading edge of the SAL spin coming. Check it out on NESDIS color on MIMIC. That dry push is just behind the wave. So I doubt anything would be able to form until that clears out in a few days. What I don't like that you can see on the mimic is the general flow straight north into the northern Gulf Coast. We'll want that type of pattern to change late summer and fall, or somebody from here to Panama City will get it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

Mid-level spin at 500mb very apparent on IR SE of Houston.
Developed quickly.

[GCANE]

Getting a solid refire this morning under a strong 500mb vort.
Feeding directly off 5000 CAPE air.

[GCANE]

Convective debris from a massive MCS that fired over Texas this morning, will give this a shot in the arm later today.

[GCANE]

A small Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break is expected to come thru tomorrow.

[GCANE]

CAPE up to 5500.
About as strong as it gets.

[GCANE]

Watching a stationary, long-duration, high-helicity tower fire on the west side of the MCS.
High rain rates are indicated.

[GCANE]

High TPW air flowing into the west GOM across the IoT from the EPAC.
Any spin up would draw in a nearly unlimited amount of moist and unstable air.

[GCANE]

NOTE:

7.4 Shallow quake on the Pacific coast SE of Oaxaca.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes ... /executive
https://earthquake-report.com/2020/06/2 ... e-23-2020/

Tsunami waves have been observed in the GoT.
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/202 ... WEPA40.txt

[La Breeze]

High TPW air flowing into the west GOM across the IoT from the EPAC.
Any spin up would draw in a nearly unlimited amount of moist and unstable air.

https://i.imgur.com/OrmvRgm.png

Local met mentioned this also during his noon report. Shouldn't the Saharan dust put a cap on this and stop any development? Just wondering...

[GCANE]

High TPW air flowing into the west GOM across the IoT from the EPAC.
Any spin up would draw in a nearly unlimited amount of moist and unstable air.

https://i.imgur.com/OrmvRgm.png

Local met mentioned this also during his noon report. Shouldn't the Saharan dust put a cap on this and stop any development? Just wondering...

Hasn't gotten this far.

[Nimbus]

Lowest surface pressure briefly dipped to 29.78 (1009 mb) but that was right along the coast.
Still no model support so just a lot of T storms and lightning strikes out there in the gulf?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[tropicwatch]

High TPW air flowing into the west GOM across the IoT from the EPAC.
Any spin up would draw in a nearly unlimited amount of moist and unstable air.

https://i.imgur.com/OrmvRgm.png

Local met mentioned this also during his noon report. Shouldn't the Saharan dust put a cap on this and stop any development? Just wondering...

Hasn't gotten this far.

https://i.imgur.com/Ac1d52U.jpg

Actually there was quite a bit of SAL in the Gulf of Mexico a couple of days ago. Apparently it has dissipated. Will have to see if what's in the Caribbean makes it into the Gulf. Would put a the damper back on things if it does.

[GCANE]

Close

[Kingarabian]

Is this the inland TC that was being developed the GFS and then the Euro?