2020 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system during the next
few days while the disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible through middle of next week as it moves westward,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Additional development
could then occur as the system moves west-northwestward parallel to
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro also has development in 48 hours:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system during the next
few days while the disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A low pressure system is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible
through the middle of this week while it moves westward, away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development
could then occur as the system moves west-northwestward parallel to
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1274442209547489280



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1274453606494683136



 https://twitter.com/gtabwx/status/1274462324120846337



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1274349016231432192



 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1274440739322290179



Kingarabian, is this a possible sign that the standing waves this year will favour the EPAC, regardless of the MJO’s state, given the fact that -VP is farther W than in typical Niña and upward motion is concentrated over the Indian Ocean instead of the MC? This could indicate a lingering +PMM influence and thus hamper the growth of La Niña while inducing some enhanced VWS over the Caribbean/western MDR, owing in part to enhanced CPAC/EPAC convection relative to “typical” Niña-like background states.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS at least hints at 5 prospective systems 3 which move to Mexico.

[cainjamin]

GFS has 3 weak storms in the EPAC and another that you can barely see at the edge of the frame entering the CPAC on the 12Z. None of them strengthen very much in this run.

[Yellow Evan]

It eventually makes the western one potent as it nears land. Also tries to show another one forming around day 10-11.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual
development of this system during the next few days while the
disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development
is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become
a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops 0/50.

[Kingarabian]

I want the 30/50 to develop. A quick strike weak fish.

Might need a fourth circle soon since the GFS is going back and forth with the 0/50 actually being split into two systems:

[Chris90]

I want the 30/50 to develop. A quick strike weak fish.

Might need a fourth circle soon since the GFS is going back and forth with the 0/50 actually being split into two systems:
https://i.imgur.com/dQ05aPt.png

After last year and the unenthusiastic beginning this year, I'm not even picky. It can be the 30/50, a random thunderstorm, or a naked swirl that suddenly blooms. I'm just ready for a hurricane and I want it to be a fish.

I think 2018 ruined me a bit.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual
development of this system during the next few days while the
disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development
is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become
a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[aspen]

I want the 30/50 to develop. A quick strike weak fish.

Might need a fourth circle soon since the GFS is going back and forth with the 0/50 actually being split into two systems:
https://i.imgur.com/dQ05aPt.png

After last year and the unenthusiastic beginning this year, I'm not even picky. It can be the 30/50, a random thunderstorm, or a naked swirl that suddenly blooms. I'm just ready for a hurricane and I want it to be a fish.

I think 2018 ruined me a bit.

We’ve been spoiled by 2018 and it’s flurry of long-tracking Cat 4/5 hurricanes. It’s not every season you have 300+ total ACE and ten Category 4+ systems, so now something like 2017 or 2019 seems unbelievably boring.

[storminabox]

I want the 30/50 to develop. A quick strike weak fish.

Might need a fourth circle soon since the GFS is going back and forth with the 0/50 actually being split into two systems:
https://i.imgur.com/dQ05aPt.png

After last year and the unenthusiastic beginning this year, I'm not even picky. It can be the 30/50, a random thunderstorm, or a naked swirl that suddenly blooms. I'm just ready for a hurricane and I want it to be a fish.

I think 2018 ruined me a bit.

2018 completely trashed my expectations. What a great year in the Pacific. And most of the storms were fish too

[Astromanía]

I want the 30/50 to develop. A quick strike weak fish.

Might need a fourth circle soon since the GFS is going back and forth with the 0/50 actually being split into two systems:
https://i.imgur.com/dQ05aPt.png

After last year and the unenthusiastic beginning this year, I'm not even picky. It can be the 30/50, a random thunderstorm, or a naked swirl that suddenly blooms. I'm just ready for a hurricane and I want it to be a fish.

I think 2018 ruined me a bit.

2018 completely trashed my expectations. What a great year in the Pacific. And most of the storms were fish too

But was the year with most landfalls ever on EPAC I think, which 6 of them ocurred on México, one as a mejor hurricane

[Astromanía]

Which of the disturbances we have now has a chance to affect México?

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS going to just one storm east of 92E forming within the next 5-6 days. Not a surprise given how interaction happy the model often is in the medium range.

[Kingarabian]

Not sure why the 20/50 system is still not an invest

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual
development of this system during the next few days while the
disturbance moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next two to three
days while the disturbance moves westward, away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico by the middle of this week. Additional development
is expected to occur after that time, and the system could become
a tropical depression by late this week as the disturbance moves
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven