Models for ENSO predict neutral conditions until late spring

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

When the summer of 2004 arrives already some models are going for warm conditions or EL NINO but the question is how strong el nino will be by next summer is the question pending and we wont know until early to mid 2004.How would el nino affect the 2004 season being more active or not depends greatly on how strong it gets.

[Derek Ortt]

If the models are calling for an el nino, the chances are far better that we will have a la nina. Check the verification of some of these enso models. It is a sad state of affairs when the enso CLIPER is one of the best models, if not the best

[Stormsfury]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=17601

[cycloneye]

Yep SF that one that you posted was the NCEP model which is one of the 4 models that go to warm conditions in this october run but let's see as the months go by how many more models are going with el nino by next summer.

[Stormsfury]

Yep SF that one that you posted was the NCEP model which is one of the 4 models that go to warm conditions but let's see as the months go by how many more models are going with el nino by next summer.

Exactly. Big difference in pattern though, this time last year and right now. We've had quite a pattern shift (although it looks to be a temporary one). We do know that with the current pattern that we're in, if anything, the El Niño episode, should there be one, probably won't be anywhere near the blockbuster Niño's of 82-83, or 97-98.

Derek brings up a really good point and we are talking about roughly 8 to 9 MONTHS ahead. Good for speculation but we all know how correct models can be sometimes.

[cycloneye]

Agreed SF it is way too early to speculate on how this el nino will be and how it will affect the 2004 hurricane season but we can look at the ENSO models as a guidance.

[Anonymous]

Interesting. Keep in mind though, we're looking past the "model barrier" which is early Spring. ENSO models have a hard time predicting the ENSO beyond Spring. So there's still some uncertainty. Plus you have about a dozen other factors to take into consideration besides ENSO, so an El Nino doesn't always mean an inactive season (look at 1969, 17/12/5 in weak El Nino), and vice-versa.

Speaking of all this, our first preliminary outlook for the 2004 hurricane season is coming within the next few weeks so stay tuned.