2020 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS dropped the 0/20 in favor of the a larger more potent system to its east. 0z ECMWF has literally nothing for the next 10 days.

6z GFS on the other hand...



Barely develops the 0/20 but shows two systems to its east and develops one to its west.

Situation is becoming increasingly complicated though trends aren't exactly in favor of higher activity.

[aspen]

12z is back to barely anything.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS develops two systems to its east only.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF through 96 hours but develops the 0/20 now.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS once again only has the two eastern systems.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Some slow
development of this system is possible through early next
week while the low moves westward, offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has nothing till day 11.

[Kingarabian]

Tonight's 00z runs were pretty pathetic.

[cycloneye]

They add the word "may" instead of expected.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 18 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure may form well south or southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of the system through early next
week while it moves generally westward, well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

Last two GFS runs show two storms to its east but honestly there's no support for the 0/20 anymore. Probably should be dropped from the TWO.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is not too impressive either. Tries to spin something up near 140W in about 48 hours though.

[Kingarabian]

I mean this shear map shows why:

[TheStormExpert]

I mean this shear map shows why:
https://i.imgur.com/P1PvdjH.png

Looks like there’s a TUTT placed over the western Hawaiian Islands and the shear belt extends all the way through the East Pacific into Mexico and even the Gulf of Mexico. Wouldn’t this be typical of a La Niña season?

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS tries to spin up what I'm not sure is the 0/20 and shows two more robust systems further east by day 9-11.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS tries to spin up what I'm not sure is the 0/20 and shows two more robust systems further east by day 9-11.

The GFS and Euro are again developing the 0/20 system. Head is spinning.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A broad area of low pressure may form well south or southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of the system through early next
week while it moves generally westward, well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS just has two systems to its east but keeps them quite weak. I hope this is somehow clearer in 1-2 days.

[Shell Mound]

Perhaps all this VWS is a sign that early to mid July could be fairly active on the Atlantic side, given the emergent Niña-like base state and the MJO.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF shows the 0/20 and the storm to its west while the 18z GFs shows 2 systems well to its east. Timeframe slowly coming down too. This might be getting a bit clearer.

[cycloneye]

Now 0/30.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of the system through early next
week while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven