Tropical Wave in BoC (TW #11)

[SFLcane]

Seriously...

https://i.imgur.com/KQRyMnF.gif

Friction-induced convection, once it splashes, dry air ahead of it will suck it dry.

No doubt it’s a MCS.. also kicking up dust. We have had strong waves no doubt.

[toad strangler]

Seriously...

https://i.imgur.com/KQRyMnF.gif

Friction-induced convection, once it splashes, dry air ahead of it will suck it dry.

Setting the table

[USTropics]

While there are numerous factors that contribute to enhancing African Easterly Waves (AEWs), the largest correlation is location of intraseasonal 200mb VP anomalies.

Examine VP anomalies for 2020 from April - May:


Now compare this to 10 of the most active Atlantic CV seasons that had early starts (June-August):


You'll notice this type of VP anomaly pattern, with a main branch over Africa and an additional extended branch to South China Sea, induces more potent AEWs (which we are seeing now). If this pattern were to persist through the Atlantic hurricane season, it would be a strong indicator of an active MDR.

To compare, here are recent season's VP anomalies and a snapshot of satellite views for middle of June for each season:

2020 VP Anomalies

2020 Satellite Image


2019 VP Anomalies (notice VP anomaly branch is more western based, not an ideal pattern)

2019 Satellite Image


2018 VP Anomalies (active early MDR and AEWs)

2018 Satellite Image


2017 VP Anomalies

2017 Satellite Image

[cycloneye]

Took the (S) off as the original purpose of this thread was to discuss about one wave and not about two. Still looks good.

[drezee]

Took the (S) off as the original purpose of this thread was to discuss about one wave and not about two. Still looks good.

https://i.imgur.com/sM7h2oT.gif

https://i.imgur.com/oPse6cO.gif

I updated the name to include TW# from the link below:

https://ttweathercenter.com/tropical-up ... next-week/

Trinidad and Tobago weather numbers and forecast all TWs.

[cycloneye]

Tough road ahead for this wave.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1272499503824662528

[chaser1]

Very impressive wave, but it's June. I'm less concerned about SAL as I am with the relative shear as a result of this feature flying off to the west at a healthy clip due to the strength of the easterly surge pushing it along. Concentrated convection at low latitudes may well continue for a couple days but I don't see this feature posing an organized T.S. threat to the Islands with the "shredder" (upper level westerlies) awaiting. Could the lower axis potentially find better upper level conditions in the SW Caribbean or Eastern Pacific after 6 or more days? Maybe...... but so could either of the proceeding waves ahead of it if having optimum condition prior to plowing into Central America. That doesn't lesson the concern for any potential downstream flooding risk that might impact the Windward Islands towards the end of the week but as far as organized tropical development is concerned, I'd say.... Climo minus model support= bright shiny object with under 5% of developing into a (Atlantic) tropical cyclone.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1272625181698265093

[gatorcane]

Looks like it has poofed as the SAL surge got it.

[cycloneye]

Looks like it has poofed as the SAL surge got it.

Too much sal.

[USTropics]

SAL outbreak is definitely going to put a cap on things for a bit:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/r4uIZPjD4QA[/youtube]

[plasticup]

Seriously...

https://i.imgur.com/KQRyMnF.gif

That looks insane.

[AutoPenalti]

Notice how SAL doesn’t extend as far out this year.

[storminabox]

Notice how SAL doesn’t extend as far out this year.

What do you mean?

[Nuno]

SAL may stifle development, but we aren't exactly climatologically in a place conducive for development of African waves yet anyways. There is however an anomalous amount of robust waves for this time of year which should clear out SAL for future waves.

[drezee]

Death blow...SAL met it at the point

[drezee]

Death blow...SAL met it at the point

Maybe not dead yet...it will become convective again as it moves into the entrance region of the jet

[drezee]

Death blow...SAL met it at the point

Maybe not dead yet...it will become convective again as it moves into the entrance region of the jet

Enhanced cnvection moving through the isands is TW#11. Gustt winds and rain. It may be in the Gulf in 5-7 days

[floridasun78]

the wave trying to outrun the SAL but likely loss fight because SAL cover big area

[drezee]

Death blow...SAL met it at the point

Maybe not dead yet...it will become convective again as it moves into the entrance region of the jet

Enhanced cnvection moving through the isands is TW#11. Gusty winds and rain. It may be in the Gulf in 5-7 days

On weatherbell, Bastardi just said this wave will be in the GOM during that time frame. He indicated it will interact with a trough spilt and enhance rain near TX.