2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[plasticup]

What does the NHC see at 57 W? It just looks like a small tropical wave and I see nothing in the models to indicate that it will turn into something. Why do they give it 10%?

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a quick strike TD near Galveston in 10 days.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS spins up an OTS warm core NE of the Bahamas in 108 hrs

[cycloneye]

Rest of June will be quiet.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1271815533441187840

[Aric Dunn]

THere is definitely something trying to organize just offshore Nicaragua where the models a few days ago were hinting at something..

keep an eye on.. would not be the first time something has popped up after models gave up on an area.

[toad strangler]

THere is definitely something trying to organize just offshore Nicaragua where the models a few days ago were hinting at something..

keep an eye on.. would not be the first time something has popped up after models gave up on an area.

Wouldn't be the second time either

[Aric Dunn]

THere is definitely something trying to organize just offshore Nicaragua where the models a few days ago were hinting at something..

keep an eye on.. would not be the first time something has popped up after models gave up on an area.

Wouldn't be the second time either

or the 3rd lol

[Aric Dunn]

So who wants to start a thread ? models before they dropped it had it slowly moving NNW into the NW carrib.

appears we have a closed developing circ in there.

[northjaxpro]

Always keep an eye on the NW Caribbean in June, and with the way this season has started, it certainly bears monitoring.

I think if convection remains persistent in that area, and if shear can relent just a bit, it could try to spin up, barring the wave does not move inland across Central America or over Yucatan the next day or so.

[plasticup]

So who wants to start a thread ? models before they dropped it had it slowly moving NNW into the NW carrib.

appears we have a closed developing circ in there.

https://i.ibb.co/nBv7czL/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/dsZQ4dv/Capture.png

Is this energetically related to the subject of this thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120935 ?

[Aric Dunn]

So who wants to start a thread ? models before they dropped it had it slowly moving NNW into the NW carrib.

appears we have a closed developing circ in there.

https://i.ibb.co/nBv7czL/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/dsZQ4dv/Capture.png

Is this energetically related to the subject of this thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120935 ?

idk.. but there is now a thread for this area.. SW Carrib watch

[Ubuntwo]

interesting

[tropicwatch]

So who wants to start a thread ? models before they dropped it had it slowly moving NNW into the NW carrib.

appears we have a closed developing circ in there.

https://i.ibb.co/nBv7czL/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/dsZQ4dv/Capture.png

I did a couple of days ago viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120935 it has been pulsating back and forth sliding northward.

[Jr0d]

https://i.imgur.com/PG9lK1w.gif
interesting

Maybe tomorrow we will start to see signs of something developing. The GFS is showing some vorticity too, but inland.

If it can stay offshore we may have another quick spin up.

[ROCK]

It’s early I know but recent activity is foreboding. IMO. The Carib is already boiling and it reminds me of Wilma. Don’t know why she popped in my head but it bears attention even at this stage.

[ROCK]

https://i.imgur.com/PG9lK1w.gif
interesting

Maybe tomorrow we will start to see signs of something developing. The GFS is showing some vorticity too, but inland.

If it can stay offshore we may have another quick spin up.

Early sloppy TC is the norm. August and Sept are the 60 days I am concerned about. Ssts remind me of 2005-2008

[Aric Dunn]

anyone taking note of the low currently developing off the coast of SC. models have been back and forth with where it develops and moves over the next several days.

shear is high now.

but the NAM seems to ease up on the harsh environment for this 12z run. Probably because the low is forming offshore vs onshore. sort of positions the surface low in that boundary between the upper low and divergent flow. could be a weird quick spin up if it were to move south to north at any point with the shear. and actually the 6z run of the NAM was more aggressive.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=51

[northjaxpro]

Monitoring it also Aric. Canadian for the past couple of run cycles also have been hinting at possible Low Pressure development off the Southeast U.S. Coast over the next couple of days.

[Aric Dunn]

Monitoring it also Aric. Canadian for the past couple of run cycles also have been hinting at possible Low Pressure development off the Southeast U.S. Coast over the next couple of days.

Currently, there is definitely a low forming.

GFS starts out similar to the NAM but quickly moves it inland then gets mixed up under the ULL and does not stay separated.

06z Euro develops a secondary low near the northern bahamas and at the end of run looks like it might want to spin it up.. all the while the one off SC does a couple of loops.

[chaser1]

So who wants to start a thread ? models before they dropped it had it slowly moving NNW into the NW carrib.

appears we have a closed developing circ in there.

https://i.ibb.co/nBv7czL/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/dsZQ4dv/Capture.png

Is this energetically related to the subject of this thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120935 ?

Yes it likely was. Threads could probably have been merged and title updated. We're seeing the northern axis of these west moving waves flare up over northern S. America and entering into the S.W. Caribbean. Surface pressures have been generally low there and low level steering have aided in perturbances to move in a more northwesterly motion down there recently. There now is some level of spin around 15 N & 82.5 W just off the coast but I think the NE/SW wave axis will keep moving on with upper level conditions being rather strong immediately west and north of there. I personally think near to mid term development in the deeper tropics will be suppressed for now, but then again... it's June.