Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

[GCANE]

Cold clould tops with rotational helicity and lightning.
Actually seeing the outflow at 250mb.

[GCANE]

It is actually moving into very moist mid level air.
GFS may not be accurately initializing this.
This looks more like an August / September protected pouch rather than something in mid June.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined tropical wave located about 275 miles east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although significant development is not anticipated
due to inhibiting environmental conditions, some areas of heavy
rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward
Islands later today through early Friday while the wave moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[northjaxpro]

A belt of strong 30 KT westerly wind shear across the Caribbean will keep this wave from developing.


.

[NDG]

Way too early for development here but might be a sign of what's to come in a few weeks. This is at least the second strong wave that I have seen in this area in the past few days that look good, relatively speaking, for this time of the year.

[northjaxpro]

Way too early for development here but might be a sign of what's to come in a few weeks. This is at least the second strong wave that I have seen in this area in the past few days that look good, relatively speaking, for this time of the year.

It does look decent, as you noted NDG for a mid-June wave, which originated in the MDR. This wave likely won't develop, but it could be a very ominous harbinger of things to come down the road as we get deeper into the tropical cyclone season from the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive for June! Reminds me quite a bit of Bret from 2017.

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1270994707775213569

[AutoPenalti]

Impressive for June! Reminds me quite a bit of Bret from 2017.

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1270994707775213569

Any time he posts about how impressive a TW looks despite environmental conditions, the wave decides to just disappear in like 2 hours

[AnnularCane]

Cute little ominous harbinger, isn't it?

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive for June! Reminds me quite a bit of Bret from 2017.

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1270994707775213569

Any time he posts about how impressive a TW looks despite environmental conditions, the wave decides to just disappear in like 2 hours

Well there is a wall of shear awaiting it in the Eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disorganized showers located about 200 miles east of the
Windward Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Significant
development is not anticipated due to inhibiting environmental
conditions while the system moves over the Windward Islands later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Nuno]

A bit concerning to see such vigorous CV-originated waves in June. It's only going to get worse.