Flare Up Near Panama

[tropicwatch]

There has been a flare up of convection this morning near Panama with some 850mb vorticity. This might be the catalyst for what the forecast models have been hinting at this coming up week.

[tropicwatch]

850mb vorticity appears to be increasing near Panama.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[GCANE]

Currently NAVGEM and UKMET is developing this in a couple days.

[JetFuel_SE]

Currently NAVGEM and UKMET is developing this in a couple days.

The GFS developed it a few days ago, seems to have dropped it tho.

[aspen]

Currently NAVGEM and UKMET is developing this in a couple days.

The GFS developed it a few days ago, seems to have dropped it tho.

There does appear to be something there, but more of just a ton of rain and not a fully-fledged TC because of land interaction.

The ICON is also showing sometime as well, but it’s quite weak.

[plasticup]

Interesting that it doesn't even get a mention in the TWO. NHC must not think much of this.

[chaser1]

Upper level conditions right now are not at all conducive for development, but that could change in about 66-72 hours. GFS does begin to build an upper anticyclone over the SW Caribbean around that time. Upper level shear around 15N still seems a bit formidable. I'll be honest, I was a bit surprised to see ICON and NAVGEM latching on to something developing down there. Perhaps we'll begin to see the GFS become a bit more enthusiastic about development around the 60-96 hr. range? Until then though, I'd bet against development. It would be hard for me to consider that the NAVGEM would sniff out tropical development that the GFS missed. Lets see if today's 12Z or tonight's 0Z show the GFS or even the CMC coming aboard with the idea (or the ICON and NAVGEM dropping it). As for last night's 0Z UK maps that I looked at, I didn't see any level of resolution that implied much more organized then weak low pressure

[chaser1]

Interesting that it doesn't even get a mention in the TWO. NHC must not think much of this.

I'd guess this would be due to a combination of lack of convective persistence and nominal model support. Now, if the convective area were to persist for another 12-24 hr.'s AND the GFS were to begin hinting at development within the next few days then I'd guess that NHC might stamp a 20%/30% of development by tonight or tomm. morning's TDO.

[aspen]

Upper level conditions right now are not at all conducive for development, but that could change in about 66-72 hours. GFS does begin to build an upper anticyclone over the SW Caribbean around that time. Upper level shear around 15N still seems a bit formidable. I'll be honest, I was a bit surprised to see ICON and NAVGEM latching on to something developing down there. Perhaps we'll begin to see the GFS become a bit more enthusiastic about development around the 60-96 hr. range? Until then though, I'd bet against development. It would be hard for me to consider that the NAVGEM would sniff out tropical development that the GFS missed. Lets see if today's 12Z or tonight's 0Z show the GFS or even the CMC coming aboard with the idea (or the ICON and NAVGEM dropping it). As for last night's 0Z UK maps that I looked at, I didn't see any level of resolution that implied much more organized then weak low pressure

Last time I checked, the CMC did show some development down there.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah this flare up is associated with what we've been discussing on the Global Model Runs thread. GFS was once enthusiastic but not anymore. Still needs to be watched closely though.

[chaser1]

Looks like it lost what little model support it has LOL.

[tropicwatch]

Convection is being somewhat consistent north of Panama and 850mb vorticity is increasing again. Lets see if it can hold it.