2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[floridasun78]

look we wont see any thing untill july gfs showing ghost storm this time

[CyclonicFury]

look we wont see any thing untill july gfs showing ghost storm this time

That wouldn't be surprising since June averages about one storm every two years and we have already had one, but it's still only June 9 so it is too soon to definitely say nothing will form for the rest of the month.

[Kingarabian]

Well the GFS insists that there will be a disturbance in the SW Caribbean. Land interaction seems to be the main inhibitor.

[GCANE]

NAVGEM spins one up in 72 hrs north of Panama and tracks it across Cuba.
Pretty close to what GFS has been waivering with.

[GCANE]

UKMET is latching onto something as well.

[GCANE]

Something to keep an eye on.

[plasticup]

Something to keep an eye on.

https://imgur.com/rnIndeO

We should know by Friday/Saturday

[snowpocalypse]

Accuweather is having a malfunction this morning. The first article on their site links to "Tropical Storm Debby" with a graphic in the area of Bermuda. Had me thinking wow that 10% invest turned quickly... date of the linked article is 8/18 so there you go.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... ica/346116

[StruThiO]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/y12RcET.png

https://i.imgur.com/KuFLKAt.png

It’s very weak, but I’m seeing that signal on all of the latest global model runs. Looks like a strong AEW at the moment, but perhaps there’s a chance it could develop. What’s the currently record holder for the earliest MDR system?

[CyclonicFury]

Not surprised about the GFS/EPS not showing much in the NW Caribbean. Although the overall base state is favorable for the Atlantic, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is moving eastward towards the Atlantic basin.

This is to be expected for June. It does appear likely a new CCKW may reach the Atlantic late this month, so that may be our next window to watch unless we get an unexpected MDR or subtropical development next week.

[Kingarabian]

Not surprised about the GFS/EPS not showing much in the NW Caribbean. Although the overall base state is favorable for the Atlantic, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is moving eastward towards the Atlantic basin.

This is to be expected for June. It does appear likely a new CCKW may reach the Atlantic late this month, so that may be our next window to watch unless we get an unexpected MDR or subtropical development next week.

I wonder how much intraseasonal signals will affect this seasons activity. It's usually less prevalent in hyperactive years. June could be an exception. I don't know if people remember, but in 2017 Ventrice tweeted that TC genesis is very unlikely due to a suppressed CCKW. Only for Irma, Jose, and Katia to develop.

[TheStormExpert]

Not surprised about the GFS/EPS not showing much in the NW Caribbean. Although the overall base state is favorable for the Atlantic, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is moving eastward towards the Atlantic basin.

This is to be expected for June. It does appear likely a new CCKW may reach the Atlantic late this month, so that may be our next window to watch unless we get an unexpected MDR or subtropical development next week.

I wonder how much intraseasonal signals will affect this seasons activity. It's usually less prevalent in hyperactive years. June could be an exception. I don't know if people remember, but in 2017 Ventrice tweeted that TC genesis is very unlikely due to a suppressed CCKW. Only for Irma, Jose, and Katia to develop.

It’s only June 10th so I’m not surprised with this lull after the quick spurt of Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal. May have another opportunity of something in the last third of the month.

[toad strangler]

Not surprised about the GFS/EPS not showing much in the NW Caribbean. Although the overall base state is favorable for the Atlantic, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is moving eastward towards the Atlantic basin.

This is to be expected for June. It does appear likely a new CCKW may reach the Atlantic late this month, so that may be our next window to watch unless we get an unexpected MDR or subtropical development next week.

I wonder how much intraseasonal signals will affect this seasons activity. It's usually less prevalent in hyperactive years. June could be an exception. I don't know if people remember, but in 2017 Ventrice tweeted that TC genesis is very unlikely due to a suppressed CCKW. Only for Irma, Jose, and Katia to develop.

It’s only June 10th so I’m not surprised with this lull after the quick spurt of Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal. May have another opportunity of something in the last third of the month.

Nobody should be surprised. Nobody, and i mean NOBODY with an ounce of experience in this hobby should be surprised. Of course there will be periods of nothing and especially in June and or July.... or even August. I don't care how bullish indications get.

[aspen]

I wonder how much intraseasonal signals will affect this seasons activity. It's usually less prevalent in hyperactive years. June could be an exception. I don't know if people remember, but in 2017 Ventrice tweeted that TC genesis is very unlikely due to a suppressed CCKW. Only for Irma, Jose, and Katia to develop.

It’s only June 10th so I’m not surprised with this lull after the quick spurt of Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal. May have another opportunity of something in the last third of the month.

Nobody should be surprised. Nobody, and i mean NOBODY with an ounce of experience in this hobby should be surprised. Of course there will be periods of nothing and especially in June and or July.... or even August. I don't care how bullish indications get.

It would be very concerning if we don’t get a significant lull in July. If we see a Cat 4 this July and get to Edouard or Fay, then it’s probably safe to get the apocalypse bunker ready.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s only June 10th so I’m not surprised with this lull after the quick spurt of Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal. May have another opportunity of something in the last third of the month.

Nobody should be surprised. Nobody, and i mean NOBODY with an ounce of experience in this hobby should be surprised. Of course there will be periods of nothing and especially in June and or July.... or even August. I don't care how bullish indications get.

It would be very concerning if we don’t get a significant lull in July. If we see a Cat 4 this July and get to Edouard or Fay, then it’s probably safe to get the apocalypse bunker ready.

Well I beg to differ. 2004 is a perfect example of why you can’t just assume it won’t be a bad season just going by activity prior to August. Now if we come up on August 20th with not much more or any indications of the lid coming off that would be another thing.

[Chris90]

I wonder how much intraseasonal signals will affect this seasons activity. It's usually less prevalent in hyperactive years. June could be an exception. I don't know if people remember, but in 2017 Ventrice tweeted that TC genesis is very unlikely due to a suppressed CCKW. Only for Irma, Jose, and Katia to develop.

I remember EXACTLY what you're talking about, because I recall NHC's Eric Blake playfully shading Ventrice over it. 2017 was not kind to Ventrice and his over-reliance on using CCKWs to predict/not predict TC genesis. In my personal opinion, what I've seen from Ventrice the past couple years has been pretty good though. He's not the first person I look to, but I do enjoy seeing his stuff on Twitter.

[Steve]

CMC and ICON like low pressure around the VA/NC Border in the 6-8 day period. Not sure anything will come out of that and super weak, but they're at least hinting at a closed low.

[aspen]

Nobody should be surprised. Nobody, and i mean NOBODY with an ounce of experience in this hobby should be surprised. Of course there will be periods of nothing and especially in June and or July.... or even August. I don't care how bullish indications get.

It would be very concerning if we don’t get a significant lull in July. If we see a Cat 4 this July and get to Edouard or Fay, then it’s probably safe to get the apocalypse bunker ready.

Well I beg to differ. 2004 is a perfect example of why you can’t just assume it won’t be a bad season just going by activity prior to August. Now if we come up on August 20th with not much more or any indications of the lid coming off that would be another thing.

2004 was strange: not a single storm until almost August, and then hyperactivity for two full months before ceasing once October arrived. Very active seasons can indeed have significant lulls or periods of low ACE (just look at 2017’s first five named storms), and that’s why an active July would be so concerning; even active years like 2019, 2017, 2012, 1998, and 1950 had late starts or minor to no activity in July, and only a few — 2005 and 2008 — had at least one major hurricane during that month. Reaching the 5th to 7th named storm and 1st major hurricane by the end of July would be a very concerning sign going forward.

[BYG Jacob]

I wonder how much intraseasonal signals will affect this seasons activity. It's usually less prevalent in hyperactive years. June could be an exception. I don't know if people remember, but in 2017 Ventrice tweeted that TC genesis is very unlikely due to a suppressed CCKW. Only for Irma, Jose, and Katia to develop.

I remember EXACTLY what you're talking about, because I recall NHC's Eric Blake playfully shading Ventrice over it. 2017 was not kind to Ventrice and his over-reliance on using CCKWs to predict/not predict TC genesis. In my personal opinion, what I've seen from Ventrice the past couple years has been pretty good though. He's not the first person I look to, but I do enjoy seeing his stuff on Twitter.

I remember now. CCKWs don't matter for already established storms. Its why those instability charts are worthless