2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TampaBull]

Figure of speech Lol, not really a track but the direction that a storm could go if it develops

Got to understand that the models are always doing their best to predict the atmosphere, especially so far out. Anything from a change of speed of a trough to unseen upper level shear could change what models are predicting almost 10 days out. In most cases, models predicting a storm 10 days out aren’t saying a storm will happen but saying the climate will be there to develop a storm.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS 6/8/20
Looking at possible development east of Nicarauga
Possible track across Cuba into FL Straits

[GCANE]

Maybe genesis from a PV Streamer

[GCANE]

Classic PV Streamer development along a shear axis.
Cristobal also spun up from a PV Steamer which interacted with the CAG.
In this case, not too sure where the LL vort is coming from.
Maybe a tropical wave.
This season may be dictated by UL conditions which has its basis in Rossby waves and particularly Anticyclonic Wave Breaking (AWB).
If so, we could see a predictiable periodicity in TC genesis and development.

[GCANE]

Much stronger development in the west Carib on the 06Z run.
GOM may come into play.

[Kingarabian]

Remains weak. It's likely we'll see a disturbance or two emerge from the WCaribb. That's a stark difference from prior years as its been a graveyard for TC's for most of the past decade.

[GCANE]

Tons of moisture from the boundry layer to mid-level troposphere.
Looks like this may be driven by LL convergence from a tropical wave as it hits CA.

[GCANE]

Not sure if this is our Rossby wave currently located east of Japan.
Massive AWB assoicated with it though.

[SFLcane]

Not much to see here yet... GEFS and Euro ensembles remain quite.

[GCANE]

Five ensemble members clustered in the W Carib, 162 hrs out.

[SFLcane]

Five ensemble members clustered in the W Carib, 162 hrs out.

https://i.imgur.com/WqYshcF.png

That's a pretty weak signal still. We'll see if it picks up

[Steve H.]

Itcz starting to get juiced already. Even West coast of Africa looking moist. Too early and out of phase. We'll see if it's still that way in August.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning everyone

Steve I notice the train a waves in the MDR early in the season to see so many. We better hope they don't keep running in August like that.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS
Deepening Surface low on the tip of the Nic / Hon border

[GCANE]

Very clear genesis as the LL Vort spins up from the Anticyclonic Wave Break due to the Rossby wave / UL Trough.
Looks to take out the PV Streamer as it moves into the upper west Carib.
Very consistent and strengthening model runs.

[GCANE]

Another one in the MDR.
AEW interacting with AWB.
Probably won't make it across though.
A little too far away from the associated PV Streamer to fire up and take it out.
This is going to be the year of Rossby Wave watching.
Feels like a very active season.

[cainjamin]

Looks to be the wave near the Lesser Antilles that spurs the Caribbean development in about 150-164 hrs on the GFS. Fits pretty well with climo for this time of year and that wave is already looking pretty healthy.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270031875785011201

[floridasun78]

so gfs want be active models of season it told us about Cristobal now want show some thing in sw carribbean

[BYG Jacob]

:uarrow: Remains weak. It's likely we'll see a disturbance or two emerge from the WCaribb. That's a stark difference from prior years as its been a graveyard for TC's for most of the past decade.

Given the OHC in the WCAB, that is concerning