#17 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:40 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 131.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY
305 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090130Z AMSU COMPOSITE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
OBSCURED BY POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SEMICIRCLE. RECENT
090130Z ASCAT-B DATA INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED WITH
LITTLE CONSOLIDATION OCCURRING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INVEST 98W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
AND ULTIMATELY CROSS LUZON AND ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 96.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH GFS PROVIDING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE ECMWF, UKMET AND NAVGEM
DO NOT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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