ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Holy smokes have we gotten hosed on the west side of the Florida peninsula. That mega band east of the storm is where the very worst weather is. Here's to hoping it remains to our west..which looks like the best bet as of now. Meanwhile the relatively cool and dry conditions of last night (70ish dewpoints) have been replaced with with mid 70's dewpoints. It's going to rain easy today and we are swamped. Unless the structure of the system changes...whoever gets under that mega band is really going to get creamed. SE LA to the FL panhandle...crikey. stay safe up there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Convection has weakened over the past 3-5 hours. Lots of dry air & shear to deal with. Very little low-level convergence, making it hard to develop a core. Not impossible, but hard.

which is very typical in June. Had this been happening in August or September, it would be a different ballgame...It crazy to think what August and September may bring.....

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/nws/status/1269290839718715392?s=21

[La Breeze]

Recon has shown that the core has become tighter over the past 3 passes. Wouldn't be surprised to see the pressure start dropping slowly again, especially if it can continue to fire convection near the center.

Weather Channel is reporting that it is having a difficult time tightening up and probably will not do so very much. In my opinion, I don't see Cristobal getting any stronger before landfall. I'm wondering if the storm will stay on a northerly track or will there be more of a wobble to the NW or NE? Is the high pressure in the eastern US going to build more to the SW and West? I suppose that my questions should be more for the model thread, sorry.

[Stormcenter]

Lots of time for this storm to possibly get its act together especially since it seems to have slowed down.iMO

[MGC]

Cristobal looks like a rotten old tree trunk. Dry air doing its magic. Doubt the storm gets much stronger.....MGC

[crimi481]

Almost looks stalled - drifting N

[GCANE]

The strong convection over FL is being feed by a massive 5000 CAPE ridge to the SE.
Its been there for days.

Watching a strong significant tornado signature in the GOM.
Could rotate up to the coast tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

Cristobal looks like a rotten old tree trunk. Dry air doing its magic. Doubt the storm gets much stronger.....MGC

yea, I agree. I'm thinking 40 to 50 MPH at landfall, IF it can hold itself together that is......

[NDG]

What shear?

[Aric Dunn]

convection is shallow.. but all the dry slots seem to have filled in.

could see some areas of deeper convection pop up shortly.

[BYG Jacob]

convection is shallow.. but all the dry slots seem to have filled in.

could see some areas of deeper convection pop up shortly.

Yeah, looks like he pinched off the dry air inflow... for now

[Stormcenter]

Agree Aric.

convection is shallow.. but all the dry slots seem to have filled in.

could see some areas of deeper convection pop up shortly.

[bella_may]

Seeing some nice gusts here close to coastal MS

[BRweather]

It sure seems like the movement has slowed on visible. Doesn't seemed to have make much of a northward movement last 2 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Recon has shown that the core has become tighter over the past 3 passes. Wouldn't be surprised to see the pressure start dropping slowly again, especially if it can continue to fire convection near the center.

Weather Channel is reporting that it is having a difficult time tightening up and probably will not do so very much. In my opinion, I don't see Cristobal getting any stronger before landfall. I'm wondering if the storm will stay on a northerly track or will there be more of a wobble to the NW or NE? Is the high pressure in the eastern US going to build more to the SW and West? I suppose that my questions should be more for the model thread, sorry.

I think we have seen Cristobal had already peaked late yesterday oŕ early last evening as he was moving off the Yucatan. Dry air, as expected, has entrained into the system and all significant weather will remain well removed and east of the CoC. There will be aome goid rain squalls and some coastal flooding across the Louisiana coast as the CoC makes landfall tomorrow night . Some good rain totals across Southern LA, into Baton Rouge and into Northern LA during the day on Monday.

[Steve]

I hate it when I botch a post and accidentally delete everything. Haha. This would have been more detailed, but whatever. Lowest pressure at land surface reporting stations (NWS) I could find was 29.84 in Galliano, LA near where the NHC has Landfall. It's NW of Grand Isle and NE of Cocodrie. I hit several reporting stations to its east and to its west (Destin, Pensacola, Mobile, Pascagoula, Slidell, Kenner, Galliano, New Iberia, Lake Charles). Pressures were highest on the eastern and western edges and gradually lowered as you moved inward toward Galliano. It also had a pretty decent .13mb fall from yesterday's noon reading 29.84 from 29.97. Noted that the pressure in Lake Charles is lower than Pascagoula (29.92) or Gulfport (29.90) or Slidell (29.89). Split the middle, and pressures currently indicate landfall where it's supposed to happen.

Besides all the observations I lost, the other point in the post was that none of the recent models dropped pressure more than 3-4mb from the central Gulf to Landfall. I think the lowest I remember seeing the last couple of days might have been 985 or 984. I don't think it'll get that low, but 988/989 would be about right.

I will have to disagree with northjaxpro a little on this though. No way this has peaked. We'll have some pulses tonight at DMAX and then maybe around ladfall tomorrow. But the models prog it to drop pressure up to the great lakes before embedding in that upper trough. Joe B also mentioned that he thought conditions would be ripest in Arkansas structure wise. So we'll have to wait and see.

[La Breeze]

It sure seems like the movement has slowed on visible. Doesn't seemed to have make much of a northward movement last 2 hours.

Could it be that the dry air has slowed Cristobal's forward movement for a short time?

[La Breeze]

I hate it when I botch a post and accidentally delete everything. Haha. This would have been more detailed, but whatever. Lowest pressure at surface reporting stations (NWS) I could find was 29.84 in Galliano, LA near where the NHC has Landfall. It's NW of Grand Isle and NE of Cocodrie. I hit several reporting stations to its east and to its west (Destin, Pensacola, Mobile, Pascagoula, Slidell, Kenner, Galliano, New Iberia, Lake Charles). Pressures were highest on the eastern and western edges and gradually lowered as you moved inward toward Galliano. It also had a pretty decent .13mb fall from yesterday's noon reading 29.84 from 29.97. Noted that the pressure in Lake Charles is lower than Pascagoula (29.92) or Gulfport (29.90) or Slidell (29.89). Split the middle, and pressures currently indicate landfall where it's supposed to happen.

Good reading - watch the pressures and it usually gives a good heads-up.

[northjaxpro]

I hate it when I botch a post and accidentally delete everything. Haha. This would have been more detailed, but whatever. Lowest pressure at surface reporting stations (NWS) I could find was 29.84 in Galliano, LA near where the NHC has Landfall. It's NW of Grand Isle and NE of Cocodrie. I hit several reporting stations to its east and to its west (Destin, Pensacola, Mobile, Pascagoula, Slidell, Kenner, Galliano, New Iberia, Lake Charles). Pressures were highest on the eastern and western edges and gradually lowered as you moved inward toward Galliano. It also had a pretty decent .13mb fall from yesterday's noon reading 29.84 from 29.97. Noted that the pressure in Lake Charles is lower than Pascagoula (29.92) or Gulfport (29.90) or Slidell (29.89). Split the middle, and pressures currently indicate landfall where it's supposed to happen.

Besides all the observations I lost, the other point in the post was that none of the recent models dropped pressure more than 3-4mb from the central Gulf to Landfall. I think the lowest I remember seeing the last couple of days might have been 985 or 984. I don't think it'll get that low, but 988/989 would be about right.

I will have to disagree with northjaxpro a little on this though. No way this has peaked. We'll have some pulses tonight at DMAX and then maybe around ladfall tomorrow. But the models prog it to drop pressure up to the great lakes before embedding in that upper trough. Joe B also mentioned that he thought conditions would be ripest in Arkansas structure wise. So we'll have to wait and see.

Steve, I may be wrong. It certainly would not be the first time and I respect your disagreement. Yeah, it coùld try to intensify prior to.landfall, but I favor the odds of it not at this point. Dry air has really choked this system, which I thought could happen last night and it has indeed.

Will monitor, as everyone on the Gulf Coast should in the event it does try to strengthen prior to landfall.