ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the feeder band is also trying to pinch off the dry air.

[GCANE]

Keeping any eye on 34 knot wind radii estimate based on ADT.

Currently
110nm in the NE quad
105nm in the SE quad

Watching if this tightens up.

https://i.imgur.com/v7l6PQi.gif

https://i.imgur.com/R0oSRYF.gif

https://i.imgur.com/SK9Ripz.png

That picture is way wrong, TS force winds extend way farther than that, around 200 miles to the north & east of it.

https://i.imgur.com/AKef0q3.png

All estimates, except best track are below 100 nm.

[GCANE]

Good improvement in the core

[xironman]

It has ingested a ton of dry air, but it does look like the source is getting cut out

[SohCahToa]

Out here fishing on Sunset Point pier in Mandeville, La. Gorgeous day to be on the water. The Weather Channel agrees. I didn’t recognize the reporter, but he’s out here fly fishing off the rocks while waiting for the storm to come through.


Edit: Reynolds Wolf is the guy on the ground here in Mandeville.

[GCANE]

Strengthening ULL at 25N 58W is kicking in a poleward outflow channel.

[SFLcane]

This thing looks an STS regardless effects are the same ways away from the center.

[aspen]

The recon plane hasn’t reported back in almost an hour, so we don’t have information on the second pass of the center.

[1900hurricane]

Keeping any eye on 34 knot wind radii estimate based on ADT.

Currently
110nm in the NE quad
105nm in the SE quad

Watching if this tightens up.

https://i.imgur.com/v7l6PQi.gif

https://i.imgur.com/R0oSRYF.gif

https://i.imgur.com/SK9Ripz.png

That picture is way wrong, TS force winds extend way farther than that, around 200 miles to the north & east of it.

https://i.imgur.com/AKef0q3.png

All estimates, except best track are below 100 nm.

https://i.imgur.com/eLikFII.gif

Those are RMW estimates, not R34 estimates.

[Aric Dunn]

This is pulling in A LOT of moisture and throwing it out to the west. if it can cut off the dry air...

better wording...

if it can build a large enough buffer moist air through the column around the core than it has just enough time to deepen.


being such a large circ it will probably take 975mb to become a hurricane.

[NDG]

Unbelievable, they get close to the center and it looks like they lost comms again.

What is up with our AF recon flights!!! Not a good thing, hope they fix their issues before the season really gets going.

[Aric Dunn]

Unbelievable, they get close to the center and it looks like they lost comms again.

What is up with our AF recon flights!!! Not a good thing, hope they fix their issues before the season really gets going.

The real question is.. why does it keep happening right before the second pass lol

[NDG]

Keeping any eye on 34 knot wind radii estimate based on ADT.

Currently
110nm in the NE quad
105nm in the SE quad

Watching if this tightens up.

https://i.imgur.com/v7l6PQi.gif

https://i.imgur.com/R0oSRYF.gif

https://i.imgur.com/SK9Ripz.png

That picture is way wrong, TS force winds extend way farther than that, around 200 miles to the north & east of it.

https://i.imgur.com/AKef0q3.png

All estimates, except best track are below 100 nm.

https://i.imgur.com/eLikFII.gif

But the actual facts show that TS force winds extend further than that, pre-dawn this morning buoy 42001 was reporting TS force winds when Cristobal was around 200 miles away.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001

[NDG]

Unbelievable, they get close to the center and it looks like they lost comms again.

What is up with our AF recon flights!!! Not a good thing, hope they fix their issues before the season really gets going.

The real question is.. why does it keep happening right before the second pass lol

True, that is weird

[wx98]

Slight pressure rise:

10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 24.2°N 90.1°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC notes the lacking appearance of a “classic tropical cyclone”

[dixiebreeze]

All morning --- fairly heavy steady rainfall in Citrus, Levy counties in Florida. Lot of road ponding already and certainly lots more to come.

[dixiebreeze]

All morning --- fairly heavy steady rainfall in Citrus, Levy counties in Florida. Lot of road ponding already and certainly lots more to come.

Remindful of the NO Name Storm in '93 --tons of flooding and storm surge in Florida Big Bend area. The shallow Gulf shelf off Cedar Key in Levy County is one of the most dangerous surge areas in the U.S., along with South shore Long Island.

[GCANE]

Cumulus building just north of the CoC.
Diurnal pressure should start dropping in a couple hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Cumulus building just north of the CoC.
Diurnal pressure should start dropping in a couple hours.

https://i.imgur.com/Wfo8O0d.png

https://i.imgur.com/5a2fyVP.png

I have been watching that. That convection is the "nose" of the moisture plume being pulled it. we have almost a closed outer ring of moisture inflow. but the inner core needs to isolate from the outer ring and filter out the dry air then it can deepen..

it definitely appears to be trying.

[NDG]

Slight pressure rise:

10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 24.2°N 90.1°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC notes the lacking appearance of a “classic tropical cyclone”

Interesting they now show a pressure rise without any commnunication from the AF recon on the second pass.