ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Thanks G. Half the time I don't even know what I'm looking at, but I need more. Your analysis, charts, flowmaps, PWT stuff is always appreciated.

So here's looking toward the South:

https://i.imgur.com/hAeGgEC.jpg

Much thanks Steve

[GCANE]

Looking at Levi's video, you can see the wind barbs showing moisture flowing from the EPAC across the IoT as Chris approaches the coast.
Same thing that drove Michael, though Chris will be more east, so less moisture entrainment.
Need to really watch how strong CAPE is in the GOM.

[gfsperpendicular]

One thing this interesting about this storm is that despite the long time over land, it still seems to have one distinct center and not a messy gyre with multiple votes rotating around each other. I don't think that will end up mattering since it's a really broad system, but it's interesting to look at.

[PTrackerLA]

Could be a similar track to Hurricane Gustav from 2008 (through Louisiana not the approach.) Cristobal will be much weaker, but if a core develops like a few models hint at, this radar could look similar.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/j0A_jK66Jz0[/youtube]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/aeUcPO48xwY[/youtube]

[psyclone]

There's a boatload of weather well east of the storm. with the system tracking near 90w anyone east to about 85w (which is about Apalachicola) is fair game for significant rainfall potential in banding. Even east of there features some risk of locally flood inducing rains.

[psyclone]

One thing this interesting about this storm is that despite the long time over land, it still seems to have one distinct center and not a messy gyre with multiple votes rotating around each other. I don't think that will end up mattering since it's a really broad system, but it's interesting to look at.

It's an ATV storm capable of going anywhere. the net effect is it overperforms on land...but that may be counterbalanced by underperforming on water. Big broad systems are resilient in the face of hostility but slower to respond to more favorable conditions...the old "solid foundation but low ceiling" situation is likely at work here to some extent..

[TheProfessor]

The low level vorticity for this storm is rather impressive, though a bit elongated right now. If it could bundle that energy up and then keep the dry air out of the core, an over performer would not surprise me.

[AMeyer614]

Posting frequency always drops when a storm is forecast to hit Louisiana. I've around here for a longgg time and it's always been that way . Probably less than 10 active members from LA.

I’m in Denham Springs. I’m pretty much always here, but I don’t post much.

Hi neighbor - longtime lurker from Denham here too =)

[tailgater]

Looking at the shortwave loops you can see the convection building to the NE and thickening near the center.

[CrazyC83]

Would a stronger Cristobal (i.e. a hurricane) be more likely to have a different track, like farther west or east?

[aspen]

Levi’s video is out. Apparently dry air won’t be that much of an issue, and might help intensification by isolating a central moisture pocket.

Be careful with how you say this. He brought up a situation where dry air can help the storm tighten up if it cuts off it's moisture feed from the Caribbean. However, that's just 1 scenario another which he talked about is dry air getting into the core and keeping the storm weak and most of the convection off to the east. It all depends on where the dry air rotates into the storm.

Yeah, I should’ve worded it better. Dry air might not be a full-on death sentence for Cristobal and could help it out in ONE scenario.

[HurryKane]

Southern MS here. Don’t know about the other posters but I’m just waiting it out

Also looks like we have big storm coming down tonight

MS Gulf Coast here...I lurk a lot more than I did way back in the day (10-15 years ago? can’t even recall). And now I am responsible for making sure that some of these models get run, so I’m busy reading rather than opining in order to make informed decisions to make sure resources are in the right places during the storm.

I growed up and it’s no fun

[TheProfessor]

Levi’s video is out. Apparently dry air won’t be that much of an issue, and might help intensification by isolating a central moisture pocket.

Be careful with how you say this. He brought up a situation where dry air can help the storm tighten up if it cuts off it's moisture feed from the Caribbean. However, that's just 1 scenario another which he talked about is dry air getting into the core and keeping the storm weak and most of the convection off to the east. It all depends on where the dry air rotates into the storm.

Yeah, I should’ve worded it better. Dry air might not be a full-on death sentence for Cristobal and could help it out in ONE scenario.

I've stated before that dry air isn't typically a death sentence for a storm anyways. It usually needs to be paired with subsidence or shear. If Cristobal didn't have a ton of moisture to pull from then it'd be a different story, but it does.

[TheProfessor]

Would a stronger Cristobal (i.e. a hurricane) be more likely to have a different track, like farther west or east?

It depends on when the storm is stronger and what's going on in the upper levels. If there's an upper level ridge and steering currents from the 200-500mb are generally westward, then a stronger storm will move more westward as it is more influenced by the upper level steering. That's kind of contrary to the belief of stronger storm = east that you will sometimes see during the season.

[Steve]

Could be a similar track to Hurricane Gustav from 2008 (through Louisiana not the approach.) Cristobal will be much weaker, but if a core develops like a few models hint at, this radar could look similar.

It will never get as strong, but Gustav was the storm we feared more than Katrina. So glad it couldn't stack after the battle with Cuba. Could have been a real nightmare instead of a vacation in Austin and then days on end of generator powered portable fans as the power was out for a week and then off and on the next couple with Ike passing by to the South. Gustav was an interesting lesson, because we don't usually see that track. It proved that if you get caught in the northern eyewall of a storm going wnw or nw passing to your south, it can be pretty brutal. Plenty of reports here and people I talked to told me Baton Rouge was chaos for the couple hours they spent in the inner core.

Christobal is showing signs of juicing heading toward dmax. Tomorrow night's pulse will be more critical, but tonight should be interesting to be able to pick up on the timing and behavior now that it's back over the Gulf.

Here''s the white IR at night from the geocolor filter
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

[Red eye]

Crowley, Louisiana here. Not much for the stories the news pushes these days. I'd rather be positive and its sure hard to be if you get a snoot full of it.

I prefer to watch the weather. It's more believable. And much more beautiful. I've been fascinated by the dynamics of weather ever since I was a sprout.

I've been watching and following storm 2k for about 10 years. I appreciate the commentary from the professionals and the passion from the amateurs. Ive learned a lot and still understand I need to learn more. I'll try to contribute more.

It is pretty neat to be talking storms already. I pray that everyone is safe through this one and the coming season. Since I live Northwest of Vermilion Bay I predict that's where the storm will hit. Ha...all kidding aside. It looks like the GFS did a good job of sniffing this storm track the last 2 days. I always want to lean euro, but GFS has admittedly had some good forecasts.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This should be going over a patch with some higher OHC here soon. That might help it out .

[Steve]

Would a stronger Cristobal (i.e. a hurricane) be more likely to have a different track, like farther west or east?

Hey Crazy. There is a distinct alleyway with this one. So I'm not sure it would really have mattered all that much with this setup. Run those 500's, which I'm sure you've done, and you'll see that the basic northward movement had to happen. Maybe if it was really strong from the start it would have been slower and possibly that could have resulted in a track change. But I don't really think strength matters here. Blocking ridge to the SE, trough to the west, blocking ridge building over the top from behind the trough, all it could be would be north or stall. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am this time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ATCF up to 40 knots.

[Aric Dunn]

Would a stronger Cristobal (i.e. a hurricane) be more likely to have a different track, like farther west or east?

east early then west later..