ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

Posting frequency always drops when a storm is forecast to hit Louisiana. I've around here for a longgg time and it's always been that way . Probably less than 10 active members from LA.

[Steve]

Been monitoring it from my beach home in Biloxi... surprised the forecasted surge is so low at only 4-6 feet... it takes a surge of over 10 feet to get over the sea wall on Hwy 90 in front of my house... Kinda reminds me of the Isadore TS, which did produced a surge of 9-10 feet in front of the house as I recall.. it was basically a rainless system for me as I sat in the front yard with 55-60 mph winds, watching the surge hit the sea wall is always good viewing... I Guess I’m still in the “show me what ya going to do mode Christobal” as it starts tracking towards the coast.. but they always seem to throw an unexpected surprise at you as they approach the coast.. track change, stalling, intensifying or weakening changes.. so we wait and watch... sure glad is early June though... Steve does such a great job with the model updates, along with a plethora of other old times providing great info.. not much wish-casting either with this system! Most likely things on the board will start to pick up as The system progresses and more recon info is provided... but they have a lot more members from Florida and Tx on this site as opposed to the northern gulf coast region...

I remember tracking Isidore with you, and that was the surprise you had with the overperforming surge. We got a few decent bands out of it and then Lili later that year was a lot more. We’d watch the radar and wait for the bands and head outside when they were about to hit until they passed my kids were little, but we had fun with that. That was 2002 hard to believe but 18 years ago. Haha.


This looks to be a little different. Only core I’ve ever been awake for was Bill in 03 which was great for the few minutes it was passing overhead. I don’t think we will get the core in New Orleans as this should landfall 50-100 miles west of here. Depending on structure, we look to be on the near east side of Cristobal and possibly could be under somewhat of a gun for a prolonged period of time. I expect street flooding and power outages and downed trees and limbs, but the porch at my apartment is about 14’ up. If we don’t lose power (and internet) and I can periodically charge my phones, I’ll try to upload some photos and videos if warranted.

[Janie2006]

I don't think I've ever seen this forum so slow when there's a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Usually it's hard to keep up with the posts.

Probably "storm fatigue" I mean, this all started back on May 30 with Amanda (E.Pac), then us all following the "Ire of Gyre" around for days trying to figure out what or where another storm might be spit out, and THEN finally Cristobal. Now June 5 and we're finally going to see what this storm will do next. And we're still glossing over satellite loops, debating MLC points, watching models for the 3rd named storm of the year. JUNE 5??? This is gonna be one exhausting season

Hopefully nothing like 2005!!

Old-timer checking in. All is calm on the Alabama Gulf Cost for the moment. I have to say...for June this is one “good looking” system.

[JSDS]

Posting frequency always drops when a storm is forecast to hit Louisiana. I've around here for a longgg time and it's always been that way . Probably less than 10 active members from LA.

I’m in Denham Springs. I’m pretty much always here, but I don’t post much.

[Aric Dunn]

FLat pressure field .. makes sense without deep convection. and spendinf days over land

[Steve]

Steve is representing and drinking, don't even think he is home. Think he is in the Panhandle or Florida LOL.

I’m back in Nola trying out life again for a week or so and then will probably head back to FL again. Working remote rules for mobility.

Milky cloud deck to my south and southeast is showing up for the first time. Probably some fringe clouds. I’ll post a picture in a minute to keep this on track.

[chaser1]

Chaser
I am down south in Miami but rain yesterday a bit nothing today at al starting to wonder if we get any rain from this storm.

Serious? My mom lives in Kendall near Galloway and was telling me she was getting nailed with storms. Then again, that was perhaps a week ago and less related with Cristobal. So maybe there's been large broad areas around the state getting very little precip from this event thus far? Perhaps it'll be both our turns over the weekend. As Cristobal lifts north, models seem to project pretty decent rains statewide. Wait and see I suppose.

[GCANE]

Drops from Miss Piggy in the dry air west of the circulation, in the BoC, shows its nearly saturated from the surface to about 500mb.
Its not all that dry.

[cajungal]

Posting frequency always drops when a storm is forecast to hit Louisiana. I've around here for a longgg time and it's always been that way . Probably less than 10 active members from LA.

Thibodaux here. I mostly just lurk and barely post. I guess because it is barely a tropical storm and people are not really concerned. More attention Is going to all the other stuff going on in the media. If it was a major then I am sure you wouldn’t even be able to keep up with the posts.

[GCANE]

997.8 mb
22.267N 89.933W

[Steve]

In an interesting turn of events, my Accuweather app told me in my local forecast's "Looking Ahead" section to be prepared for Tropical Storm Cristobal early next week....

I live on the Wisconsin/Illinois border... somehow I doubt I'm getting a tropical storm. Remnants? Sure. Hopefully they give me a good thunderstorm, this spring has been slow to start. We had a tornado spotted in town a couple weeks ago, but it was dead quiet where I am. I'm ready for a decent storm.

Bastardi mentioned in a tweet that he thought it would sort of mirror Olga and potentially be a lot stronger when it merges with a trough up near the great lakes. Idk if that's going to happen as you think it would curve southeast of where you are. But you never know.

[canetracker]

Drops from Miss Piggy in the dry air west of the circulation, in the BoC, shows its nearly saturated from the surface to about 500mb.
Its not all that dry.

Oh wow. Very interesting.

[GCANE]

Pretty much on track

[aspen]

Levi’s video is out. Apparently dry air won’t be that much of an issue, and might help intensification by isolating a central moisture pocket.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty much on track

https://i.imgur.com/gEZXf9Z.png

you should always put previous couple forecast on top of these. it is much faster than 11 am

[Steve]

Thanks G. Half the time I don't even know what I'm looking at, but I need more. Your analysis, charts, flowmaps, PWT stuff is always appreciated.

So here's looking toward the South:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well since it seems all the long time LA posters are here might as well join in and visit for the first time this season as well. This looks like a pretty meh system and in no way do I see us getting 10+ inches of rain. In fact we were supposed to get rain all this week, one of the reasons we were put under a flash flood watch Tuesday morning, but have been bone dry since.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1269075290527010822

[LAwxrgal]

Posting frequency always drops when a storm is forecast to hit Louisiana. I've around here for a longgg time and it's always been that way . Probably less than 10 active members from LA.

I am from Louisiana but I lurk more than I post these days.

Anyway, I hope this thing doesn't get any stronger.

[TheProfessor]

Levi’s video is out. Apparently dry air won’t be that much of an issue, and might help intensification by isolating a central moisture pocket.

Be careful with how you say this. He brought up a situation where dry air can help the storm tighten up if it cuts off it's moisture feed from the Caribbean. However, that's just 1 scenario another which he talked about is dry air getting into the core and keeping the storm weak and most of the convection off to the east. It all depends on where the dry air rotates into the storm.