ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

I wouldn’t be surprised if minimal TS winds are already blowing offshore east and north of the center. Definitely looking better organized.

[aspen]

I’m thinking the recon flights could find a TS with 35-40 kt winds and a pressure of 1000–1003 mbar.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Afternoon everyone

Not that we need it but how much rain if any can we expect here in south Florida

[Aric Dunn]

I’m thinking the recon flights could find a TS with 35-40 kt winds and a pressure of 1000–1003 mbar.

Yeah, pretty likely there are 35 to 40kts offshore in those squalls. and pressure we know is already at leas 1000mb by the time recon gets there could be 998 ish

[Dean4Storms]

Moving at a good clip and maybe moving a gnat's hair east of due north.

[aspen]

The two biggest problems Cristobal will face moving forward are dry air and pretty “meh” OHC. I’ll get more into the former later, but a brief overview of the latter: while OHC isn’t that high throughout the Gulf, Cristobal will be moving over a region of slightly higher heat in about 24-36 hours, so this could trigger a bit more intensification depending on how its core recovers after being over water for about a day.

[Dean4Storms]

Guess once it clears the coast we need to start watching for those westward wobbles the GFS and some other suggests. Concern I have is all the deep convection on its eastern flank decreasing the heights on that sub-tropical ridge that is now sending it northward.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

[typhoonty]

Probably went with 40 mph based on ASCAT

[Aric Dunn]

Guess once it clears the coast we need to start watching for those westward wobbles the GFS and some other suggests. Concern I have is all the deep convection on its eastern flank decreasing the heights on that sub-tropical ridge that is now sending it northward.

exactly.. will be tough to see any true wnw motion with it still lopsided except for wobbles/cyclonic loops . later on in the northern gulf possibly depending on timing with the ridge.

the UKMET yesterday or something depicted what is happening today very well. moving north with some NNE in there then more westerly once it ran into the ridging.

[MississippiWx]

Back to a tropical storm before even touching water.

[AnnularCane]

Boy! Didn't waste any time restrengthening, did he? Quite a vigorous little fellow.

[aspen]

That didn’t take long. Barely off of Mexico, and he’s back to a TS.

[aspen]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... 2028558341

[La Breeze]

Just wondering.. what happened to the expected slight northwesterly jog as Cristobal nears the Gulf Coast? Is the Eastern High pressure not expected to be as strong?

[Aric Dunn]

Just wondering.. what happened to the expected slight northwesterly jog as Cristobal nears the Gulf Coast? Is the Eastern High pressure not expected to be as strong?

probably a mixture of that and just rotational dynamics kept it more east.

[TheStormExpert]

I can’t remember the last time (if ever) I’ve seen a TD strengthen into a TS over land!?

[Aric Dunn]

there we go. Merida. has switched to NW the Center is where I pegged it and is nearly offshore.

just ene of Merida. should be about an hour or so to the coast.

The report was made 26 minutes ago, at 17:44 UTC
Wind 5 kt from the North/Northwest
Temperature 25°C
Humidity 94%
Pressure 1002 hPa
Visibility: 6.4 km
Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft
Overcast at a height of 7000 ft

Change units

[ronjon]

I can’t remember the last time (if ever) I’ve seen a TD strengthen into a TS over land!?

Umm...Katrina..Fay come to mind over Florida - but those were already hurricanes or tropical storms. But think its getting some baroclinic enhancement now from the trough - at least contributing to heavy convection.

[Ivanhater]

Great job this morning pegging it Aric