ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[MississippiWx]

For the first time the 00z run of the ICON model landfalls Cristobal in Mexico and significantly weakens the storm before lifting north

https://imgur.com/3DeBfri

ICON made a move to the GFS idea. Interesting to see if this is a trend with other models too.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS out to 36 hrs doesn't budge from previous 18z position, inland and significantly weakening over Mexico.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has not budged. It has been upgraded in recent years, so I tend to not overlook it as much as in the past. I would recommend others do the same. At 0z as it departs the Yucatan it is even weaker than earlier.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS essentially the same as 18z. Dissipates the core over Mexico and emerges north of the Yucatan as a loosely organized low. It appears the Euro is on it's own in showing a significant TC post Mexico interaction.

[MississippiWx]

The GFS continues with a fairly minimal storm impacting the North-Central Gulf Coast. Most of the heavy rain is over in Florida while the center ingests gobs of dry air from the Western Gulf and Texas.

[Steve]

The GFS continues with a fairly minimal storm impacting the North-Central Gulf Coast. Most of the heavy rain is over in Florida while the center ingests gobs of dry air from the Western Gulf and Texas.

Yeah. It doesn’t get that strong. NAM said the same thing being in the middle of the Gulf at 1000. They must foresee some significant disruption over land.

[PTrackerLA]

00z UKMET continues to be an eastern outlier while still going with a hard west turn into SE LA

[Kazmit]

The GFS continues with a fairly minimal storm impacting the North-Central Gulf Coast. Most of the heavy rain is over in Florida while the center ingests gobs of dry air from the Western Gulf and Texas.

Yeah. It doesn’t get that strong. NAM said the same thing being in the middle of the Gulf at 1000. They must foresee some significant disruption over land.

It would certainly be disrupted if it dived down to the Guatemala border like the GFS is showing, but IMO at its current rate of speed and movement I don't think that's very likely.

[Steve]

The GFS continues with a fairly minimal storm impacting the North-Central Gulf Coast. Most of the heavy rain is over in Florida while the center ingests gobs of dry air from the Western Gulf and Texas.

Yeah. It doesn’t get that strong. NAM said the same thing being in the middle of the Gulf at 1000. They must foresee some significant disruption over land.

It would certainly be disrupted if it dived down to the Guatemala border like the GFS is showing, but IMO at its current rate of speed and movement I don't think that's very likely.

Yeah, it's hard to know. It's going to be down there for the next 3 days. Regardless of the center, I still think the overall area is kind of rotating. It's still low pressure, but if it either dives that deep or else is further east and more centered inland on the Yucatan or even southern Mexico, it's going to be impacted. CMC is running and still has it down there at 48. I didn't expand the map to see if it was inland or not, but it's still down there. We'll see if if follows a weaker more north central gulf trend this run or not.

[Ubuntwo]

Yeah. It doesn’t get that strong. NAM said the same thing being in the middle of the Gulf at 1000. They must foresee some significant disruption over land.

It would certainly be disrupted if it dived down to the Guatemala border like the GFS is showing, but IMO at its current rate of speed and movement I don't think that's very likely.

Yeah, it's hard to know. It's going to be down there for the next 3 days. Regardless of the center, I still think the overall area is kind of rotating. It's still low pressure, but if it either dives that deep or else is further east and more centered inland on the Yucatan or even southern Mexico, it's going to be impacted. CMC is running and still has it down there at 48. I didn't expand the map to see if it was inland or not, but it's still down there. We'll see if if follows a weaker more north central gulf trend this run or not.

The CMC has less land interaction this run, but it makes little difference on intensity at landfall.

[Steve]

Canadian is off the NW Coast of the Yucatan at 66 hours, where last night it was around 90. So that's about right. It's weaker this run but doesn't necessarily go in yet. Looks like bad boating weather and probably some flooding and tidal flooding so far. 102 hours and still in the North Gulf but sort of hedged westward. So I don't know. CMC has the highest rainfall offshore to this point, but it's directly at Pensacola. So if it does slow down or stall or jump west, they'd likely be in for more.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 300&fh=114

Still sitting offshore at 114 hours, so it could be worse, but that's at least a day or two of tropical storm conditions up this way if it's right.

[Steve]

I hate imgur so I don't want to mess with it, but by 120, it's inland in SELA, Looks like CMC has a mid-grade and probably cool looking tropical storm hitting around Grand Isle 7pm Sunday. It's maybe 75 miles east of yesterday's 00z, and maybe 25 miles east of the 12z. It's liked the 990's all 3 runs, so we'll see how it does in 5 days.

The hurricane models want to bring this inland and then north near the coast but inland Yucatan. Certainly makes sense since that's the way everything is going this model run cycle. SELA hit as a mid-grade storm maybe with a little punch but not catastrophic. Watch out in the tidal areas and rivers east of here and low lying areas if CMC verifies.

[USTropics]

72 hours 00z GFS/ECMWF forecasts. Noticeable differences on how they handle Cristobal's vorticity over Mexico, but both have reasonable solutions. 00z ensemble guidance will be important:

[TheProfessor]

The trend tonight has been more land interaction and weaker storm, even the Euro is weaker than last night's run. You can't downplay the flooding potential with a sheared storm but it'd be better than the alternative. Still, I'm not quite ready to trust this solution quite yet, the models have not been good in the short term, the next 24 hours will be very telling though.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 00z euro folds to GFS. Dives deep into Mexico and only recovers to the low 990mb's.

[Steve]

HWRF goes on a tangent and drops it down to like 13N. It's an outlier. HMON is pretty similar to everything else - running up Yucatan for a while and then heading north but more toward Abbevville and Pecan Island than say in SC or SELA

[TheProfessor]

I think the models are still going to have to play catch up. If the southeastward motion at it's slow speed is to be believed, then the 0z Euro will likely end up too far west. It moves Cristobal westward between 0z and 6z(We already know this hasn't happened as it's just after 6z now.) and then it makes landfall in the state of Tobasco by 12z. Unless something changes pretty quickly I'm not sure that will happen.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268150505970307072

[Aric Dunn]

Well the 6z Euro nearly take the circ into the NW carrib lol

given the convection is lopsided at this point who knows maybe it will reform in the NW carrib lol

[AutoPenalti]

Well the 6z Euro nearly take the circ into the NW carrib lol

given the convection is lopsided at this point who knows maybe it will reform in the NW carrib lol

https://i.ibb.co/hZ3fyy9/Capture.png

uh... that would be a plot twist.