ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Ok time to just reset the models lol.... Christobal say no to going south.. says east/ene instead..

Is there not suppose to be a curve more west?

I meant for the short term... next 3 days.. long term is still too early.

[Steve]

Hey GCANE,

How juiced is that surge moving toward Cristobal down in Belize/Honduras? Looks like some high moisture content air on IR, but you usually have those charts. Thanks

[Cpv17]

18z HWRF model is putting southeast Texas back into play. Has the system stalling out in the BOC for quite a while longer than the other models.

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro down to 973mb at 90hrs when the run ends, track looks similar to 12z but it seems to intensify much more quickly as it goes back offshore and lifts north out of the BOC

[CyclonicFury]

00Z SHIPS now bringing Cristobal to minimal hurricane strength even factoring land.

V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 50 43 43 44 48 55 60 65 62 56 36 30 28 27

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro is stronger but still moves it south over land which it is not doing.. so it maye end up bieng stronger.

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro is stronger but still moves it south over land which it is not doing.. so it maye end up bieng stronger.

Indeed, imagine what we would be dealing if it never goes inland. The vorticity on the 18z Euro stays intact very well regardless of the time it spends over land. Very interested to see the 18z euro ensembles regarding strength.

[AubreyStorm]

00Z SHIPS now bringing Cristobal to minimal hurricane strength even factoring land.

V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 50 43 43 44 48 55 60 65 62 56 36 30 28 27

Is that the navy model?

[Aric Dunn]

Not one model had this at 996Mb and 50kts this early or this far east the last couple runs.. 00z runs should be interesting

[CaptainCallout]

18z Euro down to 973mb at 90hrs when the run ends, track looks similar to 12z but it seems to intensify much more quickly as it goes back offshore and lifts north out of the BOC

https://i.imgur.com/eyAU6RX.png

Has anyone seen the 18z ensembles?

[CyclonicFury]

00Z SHIPS now bringing Cristobal to minimal hurricane strength even factoring land.

V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 50 43 43 44 48 55 60 65 62 56 36 30 28 27

Is that the navy model?

SHIPS is GFS based intensity guidance.

[PTrackerLA]

18z euro ensembles

[Steve]

18z euro ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/Sv3MJeg.png

EC making for a close call. I was kind of going to wait a couple days to stock up but I might have to get on the ball sooner.

[Cpv17]

18z euro ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/Sv3MJeg.png

EC making for a close call. I was kind of going to wait a couple days to stock up but I might have to get on the ball sooner.

If it slows down it could take more of a western route. I was getting ready to write it off here in Texas but I don’t think it’s a good idea yet to do that.

[PTrackerLA]

18z euro ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/Sv3MJeg.png

EC making for a close call. I was kind of going to wait a couple days to stock up but I might have to get on the ball sooner.

Told the wife I'm going tomorrow. There's going to be a big rush Thursday and Friday at this rate.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good to see you on again Steve
A bit early but yes agree with you better safe than sorry be safe

[aspen]

18z euro ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/Sv3MJeg.png

Looks like all the 980-999 mbar members have Cristobal going over land for some time; the ones that keep it more offshore bring it to Cat 1/2 status. I’m quite surprised there are still a bunch of ensemble members bringing it to below 960 mbar.

[Wx_Warrior]

[PTrackerLA]

For the first time the 00z run of the ICON model landfalls Cristobal in Mexico and significantly weakens the storm before lifting north

[PTrackerLA]

00z ICON abandons long running streak of a strong hurricane and shifts east.