BigB0882 wrote:ronjon wrote:MississippiWx wrote:18z ICON with a rather significant shift to the south and east after ejection from the BOC. Still moving northeasterly at the end of the run.
Yes looks more in line now with the UKMET. Significant shift east. Will more models move in this direction?
I haven’t seen any images. Where is ICON showing landfall?
It's not because Tropical Tidbits (where I get it from at least) only runs out to hour 120 at 18z. At 120 hours, it has it at about 980mb and due south of the Mouth of the MS River and MS Gulf Coast. I don't have the steadiest track pad hand, but I come up with 89.11 / 25.03. It's fairly concentric though right-weighted. And the pressure only drops from 981 to 980 from hours 108 to 120. I know it's only June, but you'd think something in the middle of the Gulf that had fairly concentric isobars would be intensifying a little faster than that.
Also, I'd note that while it had been moving somewhat between NE-NNE up to that point, the slide north appears to be happening at least in the graphic (I didn't look at the actual model plots to see, but I suspect they would confirm).
Here's an odd thing though. If you run it at 500, it's almost encased in a triangle (omega shaped?) of high pressure with the first trough sliding off the US East Coast and the next one trying to push east but getting some resistance. This would indicate to me that it would either make a move toward due North or it would eventually turn NNW or even possibly NW or possibly stall temporarily at some point. I think yesterday I noted it as a "reverse S" track the ECMWF ensembles were showing. It's actually an S just drawn from the bottom. We won't know if Icon will hook it until the model comes out around 10/10:15 CDT. Speed this up to max speed to see what I'm talking about.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=120
