Bay of Campeche: (Invest 93L is up)

[Aric Dunn]

I think the euro and 90 percent of the ensembles have lached onto this cyclonic loop being brought on by the BOC distrubance..

after it gets into the BOC there is a lot of uncertianity. does it stay over water, ridging etc..

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[KatDaddy]

Yep, I will be watching closely over here along the Upper TX Coast. Hopefully only some tropical moisture but this is crazy 2020.

[aspen]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/921-w-267-n/2020053012-240.html

Those are a lot of ensemble members showing a strong TS to a Cat 2 hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

and here is why the sudden consensus of the euro and ensembles showing a large cyclonic loop.

there is vorticity over the southern BOC and mexico. TD1E will be forced NNE to NE then bend back WNW as that vorticity drops SW and weakens over the mountains..

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1266829613101178890

[aspen]

and here is why the sudden consensus of the euro and ensembles showing a large cyclonic loop.

there is vorticity over the southern BOC and mexico. TD1E will be forced NNE to NE then bend back WNW as that vorticity drops SW and weakens over the mountains..

https://i.ibb.co/Vqq08Tm/Capture.png

If the other low weakens quicker, would TD2/its remnants continue on its NNE/NE trajectory, or would it still be pulled WNW?

[cycloneye]

James Spann.

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1266845984765640711

[Aric Dunn]

TD2e sure is trying to deepen quickly.. any improvement to the 850mb vorticity now will help it redevelop on the flip side later.. either in the NW carrib or BOC>

[cycloneye]

A broad area of disturbed weather is expected to stretch across
portions of southern Mexico and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days. An area of low pressure could form in this
region by the middle of next week, and some gradual development is
possible thereafter if the system remains over water. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is likely over portions of southern
Mexico during the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook will be issued by 9 AM EDT Sunday, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has nada there in 5 days, on EPAC side instead:



On the other hand the Euro has something in just a few days:



But wait aren’t what the the GFS and Euro showing within 5 days the EPAC system? Any broad low that forms is beyond 5 days in the models and hence would not warrant a mention by NHC at this time separate from discussion under the EPAC system.

[cycloneye]

Great thread from Philippe Papin.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1266894618500542464

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS004, AL, L, , , , , 74, 2020, DB, O, 2020053100, 9999999999, , 004, , , , GENESIS, , AL742020

[cycloneye]

GENESIS004, AL, L, , , , , 74, 2020, DB, O, 2020053100, 9999999999, , 004, , , , GENESIS, , AL742020

Is that a test?

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS004, AL, L, , , , , 74, 2020, DB, O, 2020053100, 9999999999, , 004, , , , GENESIS, , AL742020

Is that a test?

No. They call it a pre-invest/genesis.
In fact, pre-invests/genesises are identified by their (both NHC and JTWC) temporary number of 71-79.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=168

[StruThiO]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Depression Two-E, located near the Pacific coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador, is forecast to move inland and dissipate
over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight. However, the
remnants are expected to turn northwestward within a broader
developing area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the
Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants do move back over
water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some
redevelopment of the system while it moves little during much of
the upcoming week. Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is
likely over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued later
this morning by 9 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[GCANE]

The setup in the GOM, IMHO, looks good.
The only thing I seeing missing, that could make this a major, is the setup for an outflow channel.

[NDG]

Up to 40/50.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, centered inland over
southeastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or
dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.
However, the remnants of Amanda are expected to move northwestward
within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over
the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move
back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to
support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little
through the middle of this week. Regardless of redevelopment, heavy
rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico
during the next few days. For additional information on the
rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological
service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM
EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan