Bay of Campeche: (Invest 93L is up)

[Dean4Storms]

Thought it ok to start this thread on this as clearly beginning to see lower level rotation right down along the Mexican Coast (18.2N 93.8W) and some upper level clockwise motion on the northern periphery. If this gets out over those warm waters this might have a shot at developing pretty quickly down there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=vis-swir

[drezee]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=20&lon=-93&zoom=2&width=1000&height=1000&quality=100&type=Animation&numframes=30

The Euro and other models move the CAG North

[Dean4Storms]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=20&lon=-93&zoom=2&width=1000&height=1000&quality=100&type=Animation&numframes=30

The Euro and other models move the CAG North

Yea, if you look at that small opening and speed it up some you'll see a low level rotation that appears to be moving slowly WNW, maybe even more NW.

[Nimbus]

Early season storms often track due north so it could be a named storm targeting the northern gulf coastline next week.

[PTrackerLA]

Most models are showing a threat to TX and LA late next week emerging from this area.

[Aric Dunn]

I was wondering if we were going to start a thread for the BOC/NW carrib aspect.. though it is still not clear if it will be a crossover/redeveloment

or a secondary development.

if you take the UKMET.. appears to be a secondary development...

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro so far showing much more aggressive with the crossover pretty quickly in 48 hours with the 850mb vorticity anyway.

[Aric Dunn]

that is a whole lot of quick movement and re organization from the Euro this run..

only 68 to 72 hours it will go from east pac to BOC...

The thing that does it.. is the convection in the BOC> pressure starts dropping and a 850mb vorticity grows and the east pac system rotate around each other.

then the BOC vortex dies over the mountains.

[drezee]

The trend is less ridging on the Euro

[Aric Dunn]

Some good old Fujiwhara/Gyre motion for the first 72 to 96 hours.. then eastern ridge pulls back and mexico ridge fills in.. at 120 hours mexico ridge starts to weaken and trough coming into Texas..

could see reformation to the NE.

[Ivanhater]

Starting to get good model agreement now. Getting closer in time...

[Aric Dunn]

yeppers.. reformation to the NE on the 12z Euro..

[Ivanhater]

Every model now is showing development in the western gulf next week. Euro,gfs,cmc,navy,icon.

[Aric Dunn]

COnditions in the north west gulf are not looking very favorable.. heavily sheared intially.

[CyclonicFury]

It almost appears like the Euro tries to develop two separate storms.

[Dean4Storms]

Every model now is showing development in the western gulf next week. Euro,gfs,cmc,navy,icon.

The 12z GFS spins off two systems, one this week in the BOC and then another in the NW Carib. Sea next weekend.

[PTrackerLA]

It almost appears like the Euro tries to develop two separate storms.

Definitely appears that way on the 12z run, that would really be something. Interested to see the ensembles.

[Aric Dunn]

Depending on the timing of this mess there is a possibility of having a stronger system.

but this run the euro is very quick due to the Fujiwhara/gyre motion the next 72 hours throwing the east pac system northward.

there is also still the possibility something tries in the NW carrib. depending on how wide the cyclonic loop the east pac system does.

if the euro is a little slower then when it reaches the northern gulf upper environment becomes favorable.

but not this run..

[Dean4Storms]

Not saying this system will be anything like Hurricane Michael but just touching on how quickly what the models way out in time were showing with Michael and what ended up happening was night and day. Will be interesting to see how this situation plays out.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a significant uptick in Euro ensemble support for the Gulf out to 5.5 days.